Event Review 🔍

Recently, the ETH market has experienced significant volatility, with market sentiment shifting from panic to bargain buying, and then quickly reversing under the repeated operations of large funds. Early morning news indicated that after a sharp decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum, some institutions and large holders began to take advantage of the low prices to replenish their positions—whales that had shorted by borrowing coins on October 20 started to repay their loans for profit, withdrawing ETH from exchanges while transferring large amounts into USDC to accumulate at lower prices. Meanwhile, on-chain monitoring also detected accounts suspected to belong to the founders of HEX and PulseChain transferring tens of thousands of ETH to privacy platforms, all of which conveyed signals of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market. In subsequent trading, some whales increased their ETH long positions, and after a brief rebound, adjusted their leverage positions, closing out before immediately establishing 25x short positions. This "quick in and out" operation has made the market trend full of uncertainties.

Timeline ⏰

• 09:05: Market news shows Bitcoin dropping to about $98,900, and Ethereum to about $30,900, with diverging market sentiment, but signs of bargain buying beginning to appear.
• 09:06: On-chain monitoring captures movements from multiple whales, with one whale closing long positions at a loss of nearly $39.37 million; another whale increased long positions in BTC and ETH with 5x leverage; simultaneously, the "7 Siblings" whale began to significantly increase its ETH holdings.
• 09:19: Ethereum's price reached the $3,200 mark, indicating signals of low-level buying.
• 09:21: A suspected large holder transferred 47,200 ETH to Tornado Cash using multiple addresses, indicating secretive operations and risk diversification.
• 09:24: Whales that had profited from shorting by borrowing coins began to accumulate at lower prices, transferring $482 million USDC to exchanges and withdrawing 144,000 ETH from Binance (average price about $3,341).
• 09:32: Another whale sold part of its ETH and WBTC through a circular loan operation, exchanging for about $56.52 million USDC to avoid liquidation risks.
• 09:35～10:05: The price of ETH surged from about $3,167 to $3,285 in just 31 minutes, an increase of 3.7%, indicating a surge in buying.
• 09:51: Some market commentators began to turn bullish on ETH, suggesting to accumulate at lower levels, with sentiment gradually warming.
• 10:08: The "1011 Insider Whale" increased its position by another 5,000 ETH, raising the total position to about $42.63 million, although facing a floating loss of $2.15 million, it remained firmly involved.
• 10:13: This whale added another 5,000 ETH and 100 BTC long positions, bringing the total holdings to about $103 million, with a floating loss of $4.22 million.
• 10:16: Some traders triggered orders at low levels, causing ETH to quickly rebound nearly 5%.
• 10:26: A significant turning point occurred in the market—previously, a whale that had long positions with 25x leverage began to close out long positions in batches after a flash crash (total loss of about $6.646 million, giving back previous profits of $8.38 million), and then quickly established a 25x leverage short position, holding about 18,800 ETH, currently with a floating profit of about $1.3 million, but the overall account still lost about $4.55 million.
• 10:35: After intense volatility, the price of ETH stabilized at about $3,276.74 per coin, entering a short-term consolidation phase.

Reason Analysis 💡

This round of intense volatility is mainly caused by the following factors:

• Large Holder Fund Operations Shift: In the market, multiple whales quickly switched between closing out losses and buying at low levels, causing significant capital inflows and outflows in a short period, leading to dramatic market reversals. Some institutions profited from shorting by borrowing coins and then again accumulated at low levels, forming a clear game of chance.
• Macroeconomic and Policy Factors: Recent actions by the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, the end of quantitative tightening policies, and government shutdowns have changed market liquidity expectations, along with statements from political figures like Trump, all contributing to uncertainty in market sentiment.
• Secretive Fund Movements: Large ETH transfers suspected to be from well-known founders to privacy platforms indicate that some large holders are avoiding regulatory risks and diversifying asset allocation, which can also trigger attention and emotional fluctuations among market participants.

Technical Analysis 📊

Based on the data from the [ETH/USDT Binance USDT perpetual 45-minute] candlestick chart, the current technical indicators show the following characteristics:

• Indicator Signals: The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, signaling a short-term buy; the KDJ indicator is showing a converging state, suggesting that trend momentum may weaken. The RSI has broken through the upward trend line, indicating some bullish energy.
• Moving Averages (MA/EMA): MA20 and MA50 are both in a downward trend, with prices consistently below EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, forming a perfect bearish arrangement, indicating significant downward pressure in the long term; at the same time, EMA24 and EMA52 are also showing a downward arrangement, indicating that the medium to long-term trend remains weak.
• Volume Situation: Current trading volume is only 39.85% of the average level and is in the bottom 25% of the recent cycle (10 periods), indicating a significant decrease in market participation and lack of enthusiasm.
• Pattern Observation: In the short term, the candlestick pattern shows three external up and down fluctuations, which may signal that market sentiment is somewhat chaotic but is searching for new support areas.

Market Outlook 🔮

In the short term, after experiencing significant fluctuations, ETH has gained some support around $3,270, but the overall market remains full of uncertainties:

• Frequent position adjustments and leverage liquidation operations by large holders indicate that institutions are cautious about future trends; some whales switching from long to short positions suggest that the market may continue to face pressure in the short term.
• The low trading volume and the bearish arrangement of technical indicators suggest a strong bearish sentiment in the medium to long term, and the market may enter a further adjustment phase.
• However, driven by expectations of macro monetary easing and some bargain buying sentiment, ETH may form a brief rebound in the low-pressure area, and traders should pay attention to whether the price can stabilize above the $3,270 support level; if it remains stable, it is expected to gradually alleviate some bearish pressure.
• Overall, investors need to remain vigilant, suggesting short-term bargain accumulation and phased building of positions, strictly controlling risks and closely monitoring institutional fund dynamics and the subsequent impact of macroeconomic policies.

In summary, although ETH currently shows signs of rebound, the intense volatility and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears make the future market still full of challenges. Investors should pay attention to changes in technical indicators and the movements of large holders' funds to operate cautiously in this volatile market.

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