Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) will not be forced to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to repay debt during the next major cryptocurrency market downturn, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo stated.
"MSTR liquidating in the next bear market? I doubt it," Willy Woo said in a post on X on Wednesday.
The debt of Strategy primarily consists of convertible preferred notes. Strategy will settle the maturing conversions through cash, common stock, or a combination of both at its discretion.
For the holder's redemption date on September 15, 2027, Strategy will have approximately $1.01 billion in debt maturing. Woo stated that to avoid the need to sell Bitcoin to repay the debt, Strategy's stock must trade above $183.19.
This price roughly corresponds to a Bitcoin price of about $91,502, assuming a net asset value multiple (mNAV) of 1, he added.
Bitcoin analyst The Bitcoin Therapist stated, "Bitcoin must perform very poorly in the next market downturn for Strategy to start selling Bitcoin."
"It would take an extremely prolonged bear market to see any liquidation from Strategy," they added. According to Saylor Tracker data, Strategy holds about 641,205 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $64 billion at the time of writing.
Strategy's stock closed at a seven-month low on Tuesday, falling nearly 6.7% to $246.99 that day. Meanwhile, according to CoinMarketCap data, BTC was trading at $101,377, down 9.92% over the past week.
While Woo does not expect any liquidation in the next bear market, he warned that it could be possible if BTC fails to rise strongly during the anticipated bull market in 2028.
"Ironically, if BTC does not grow fast enough in the hypothetical 2028 bull market, partial liquidation could occur," Willy Woo said.
Some cryptocurrency executives, such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, predict BTC will reach $1 million by 2030.
Related: Solana (SOL) treasury company Forward Industries authorizes a $1 billion stock buyback plan
Original article: “Willy Woo: Strategy will not face Bitcoin (BTC) liquidation in the next bear market”
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