Good evening everyone, I am Jiang Xin. Let's get straight to the point: my view remains unchanged, and the market will experience a downward fluctuation.

Many people may not understand why the cryptocurrency market is rebounding like this, and what the significance of the sell-off is. Bitcoin and Ethereum have almost returned to the sell-off points. This is the lowest point of the black swan event on October 11. Selling off at this position not only eliminates the stop-loss expectations of the bulls but also processes the orders of those trying to catch the bottom. This way, the stubborn bulls will be cleared out, and this rebound is merely a temporary market activity brought about by positive news.

We can see that Ethereum bounced to around 3480, hitting a precise resistance point. After a drop at nine in the morning, three one-hour buying candles did not repair the indicators, and a one-hour bearish candle at one in the afternoon engulfed all the recovery from the early morning to the morning. The KDJ and NACD indicators can intuitively reflect the impact of the sell-off. The subsequent two one-hour candles showed a divergence in volume and price, which will be seen as a support level moving down by the bullish bulls, marking the second phase of the upward movement. However, for us bears, this is a signal of a counterattack. The second sell-off at eight in the evening has already confirmed the signal for the second time, so we still maintain our view, focusing on short positions.

The downward fluctuation signal for Bitcoin is more obvious and stable than that of Ethereum. The three sell-offs at nine in the morning, one in the afternoon, and eight in the evening have already undermined the confidence of the bulls. It can be seen that there is pressure around 103300, which is exactly the position we provided yesterday.

Therefore, we will proceed conservatively in the future, continuing to apply pressure around 103300, treating 104500 as a recent small peak, adding to short positions, and setting a stop-loss at 105500. For Ethereum, 3385-3400 is seen as a pressure point for short positions, while 3450-3480 is viewed as a strong resistance zone, with a stop-loss at 3520. The direction remains towards a downward fluctuation at previous low levels. Since we already hold short positions, if there is another upward movement, we can just add to our positions. A clearly defined range with heavy positions will be more stable than repeatedly trading in three-wave segments.

For those considering a rebound, please assess it yourself. Due to recent divergences, short-term trading can be high-frequency, so everyone should handle it cautiously. This morning, I mentioned waiting for a drop, and Ethereum fell by a hundred points, which is acceptable.

For more short-term strategies, you can refer to the public account: Jiang Xin on Chan.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。