One of the data points that has historically not been proven wrong is the amount of BTC held for over a year. This data has been repeatedly emphasized, and from my observations over the past two years, a significant portion of the long-term holders here should be the BTC inventory within exchanges. After all, the correlation with exchanges has been quite high in the past six months.

When I looked at it last week, it wasn't very clear; it could very well be accumulation, and it also looked a lot like distribution, right at a turning point. Now it is obvious that it is in the distribution phase, and each time distribution occurs, it corresponds to a significant opportunity for BTC price increases.

This time, I feel that the main reason for the decline is the government shutdown and the panic triggered by Powell's remarks, especially since the shutdown has broken historical highs. I have mentioned before the impact on risk markets after the shutdown ends.

So from my personal perspective, this decline seems more like an emotional reaction rather than a systemic risk.

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