Sunday's homework is still very simple. The biggest news today is that Trump is preparing to distribute $2,000 in "dividends" to Americans, excluding high-income earners. This article has driven up the cryptocurrency market after spreading on Twitter, as the massive monetary easing in 2021 was a similar situation. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether Trump can actually distribute this $2,000.

The basis for this $2,000 is tariffs, and there is a high likelihood that the U.S. Supreme Court will reject the tariff policy. According to prediction data from Kalshi, there is only a 23% chance that the tariffs will be approved. If the tariffs do not pass and Trump does not have a better tariff plan, not only will there be no money distributed, but there is also a possibility that this portion of funds could be returned.

Aside from distributing money, the market is currently most concerned about the U.S. government shutdown, which has now reached its 40th day. Although the Senate has scheduled a meeting on Sunday, there is still no sign of an end to the shutdown. At 1:30 AM Beijing time, the Senate Republicans will hold a meeting, but there is currently no voting schedule. There are still significant differences between the two parties regarding the temporary proposal.

However, although there are no signs of an end, at least we can see that both parties are starting to work towards ending the shutdown, and the market has given a relatively positive expectation. However, the prediction for the end of the shutdown is getting longer, now delayed to over 48 days, meaning the market predicts that the shutdown will still not end this week, possibly extending to the week before Thanksgiving.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the trading volume on Sunday has significantly decreased, indicating that the sentiment of ordinary investors has greatly recovered, and the panic has eased. Especially with Trump's announcement about distributing money, many investors who are not very familiar with the policies may turn optimistic, which will be evident when U.S. stock futures open tomorrow morning. Although the shutdown is still ongoing, a path to its end has already been seen, and hopefully, next week won't be too difficult.

Yesterday, it was mentioned that although the price of $BTC has fallen below the support level, the support level has not collapsed, and there are no signs of large-scale exits from losing investors. The sentiment of many investors holding positions remains stable, so BTC's price is gradually approaching the support level.

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