It’s official — Washington’s standoff has entered uncharted territory. With the shutdown clock striking 40 days, bettors on prediction markets are more confident than ever that lawmakers won’t be cutting a deal this weekend.
On Polymarket, traders are placing 60% odds that the shutdown will still be ongoing on Nov. 16 or later, up four points from the previous day. The Nov. 8–11 window carries just 9% odds, while Nov. 12–15 sits at 32%, showing the market has effectively priced out any near-term resolution. The platform has seen more than $4.8 million in total volume, underscoring how much retail and institutional traders are wagering on Washington’s dysfunction.
Over on Kalshi, a federally regulated exchange for event contracts, the mood isn’t much rosier. Traders are giving a 73% chance that the shutdown will last more than 44 days, and 65% odds it will drag on past 45 days. By the 50-day mark — which would land on Nov. 20 — the market still sees a 49% probability that the shutdown persists.
That means bettors are practically flipping coins on whether the shutdown could extend past seven full weeks, a sign that confidence in congressional compromise is evaporating.
The 2025 government shutdown officially began on Oct. 1, and by Nov. 9, it surpassed the previous record of 34 days set during the 2018–2019 standoff. The impasse stems from bitter disputes over budget levels and Affordable Care Act (ACA) provisions, particularly around expanded premium tax credits. Since it was introduced, ACA has been considered a disaster by many observers.
House Republicans and Democrats remain dug in, trading barbs while millions of Americans feel the pain. Over 600,000 federal employees were reportedly furloughed initially, while others continue working without pay. The ripple effects have been amplified by the media: Smithsonian museums are shuttered, air traffic is slowing, and the SNAP program is at risk of losing funding.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are turning gridlock into data. Their markets aren’t just gambling hubs — they’re real-time barometers of public confidence. And right now, that confidence looks as battered as the National Mall on day 40 of a shutdown.
As weekend Senate sessions grind on without progress, traders are calling Washington’s bluff. If prediction markets are right, there’s no “Mission Accomplished” banner coming any time soon.
President Trump’s proposal to redirect ACA funds directly to individuals instead of insurance providers has stirred fresh debate but little movement. Both parties appear more focused on assigning blame than finding compromise. The Senate’s rare weekend work sessions have yet to yield meaningful results, while the House remains gridlocked by internal divisions.
If the stock market tracks greed and fear, prediction markets are tracking exhaustion and disbelief. Each rising percentage on Polymarket or Kalshi represents one more bettor convinced that Washington’s dysfunction isn’t ending soon. But let’s be real, the U.S. government has been dysfunctional for a very long time. The shutdown simply showcases the foolishness on the main stage. And judging by the charts, this particular shutdown still has legs.
- When did the U.S. government shutdown begin?
The shutdown started on Oct. 1, 2025, making it the longest in U.S. history. - What are prediction markets saying about when it will end?
Polymarket traders give 60% odds it lasts beyond Nov. 16, while Kalshi bettors see 73% odds it exceeds 44 days. - How has the shutdown impacted Americans?
Over 600,000 federal workers were furloughed, and billions in economic losses have piled up. - Who’s being blamed for the delay?
Both parties — Republicans and Democrats — remain entrenched over spending and healthcare disputes.
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