Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜CryptoLeo (@LeoAndCrypto)
2025 is set to be a booming year for DAT. Since Strategy began applying cryptocurrency treasury strategies, many companies have joined in, and there are now over 200 DAT companies in the market, covering dozens of different cryptocurrencies. In July alone, DAT's financing reached $6.2 billion. We have indeed seen many enterprises transforming into cryptocurrency treasury companies in the face of profitability challenges, driving up stock prices/market values in the early stages of transformation, all claiming that DAT is the future. But is DAT a trap or the future?
With the recent decline of BTC/ETH, which has even fallen below the buying costs of many treasury companies, it means that the BTC/ETH purchased by these companies has turned into losses, which may trigger public concern and lead to a drop in their market values.
Yesterday, I saw a "shocking" statistic showing that many DAT companies' mNav has fallen below 1 (with the exception of some mining companies, exchanges, and early investors, most cryptocurrency treasury companies' mNav are below 1), including Strategy, the "founding giant of the treasury concept."
mNav (the ratio of market value to the value of held cryptocurrencies) is a key data point for cryptocurrency treasury companies that people are paying attention to. Odaily Planet Daily will summarize a batch of BTC/ETH treasury companies whose mNav has already fallen below 1.
BTC Treasury Companies with mNav Below 1
Strategy
Data: Strategy currently holds 641,692 BTC, with a holding value of $6.504 billion, a company market value of $6.367 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.979.
Recent Developments: Has not stopped increasing holdings, shifting from large purchases to small purchases of BTC.
Metaplanet
Data: Metaplanet currently holds 30,823 BTC, with a holding value of $3.124 billion, a company market value of $3.024 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.968.
Recent Developments: Reasonably leveraging, using held Bitcoin as collateral to finance $100 million, with funds used for additional BTC purchases and stock buybacks.
The Smarter Web Company
Data: The Smarter Web Company currently holds 2,664 BTC, with a holding value of $270 million, a company market value of $221 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.783.
Recent Developments: Currently conducting a $360,000 financing round, may continue to increase holdings.
Semler Scientific
Data: Semler Scientific currently holds 5,048 BTC, with a holding value of $512 million, a company market value of $3.74 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.73.
Recent Developments: Stock consolidation, Semler Scientific and Strive announced a full stock merger transaction, which will hold over 10,900 BTC.
Empery Digital
Data: Empery Digital currently holds 4,081 BTC, with a holding value of $414 million, a company market value of $246 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.595.
Recent Developments: Working to improve mNav, Q3 financial report indicates approximately $80 million in stock buybacks have been executed.
Sequans Communications
Data: Sequans Communications currently holds 2,264 BTC, with a holding value of $229 million, a company market value of $166 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.73.
Recent Developments: Reducing debt, maintaining a long-term strategy of increasing BTC holdings. Sold 970 BTC to redeem about 50% of convertible bonds, reducing total company debt from $189 million to $94.5 million.
ETH Treasury Companies with mNav Below 1
Bitmine Immersion Tech
Data: Currently holds 3.529 million ETH, with a holding value of $12.07 billion, a company market value of $11.43 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.946.
Recent Developments: Unlimited bullets, continues to increase holdings by 24,007 ETH.
SharpLink Gaming
Data: Currently holds 859,400 ETH, with a holding value of $2.94 billion, a company market value of $2.28 billion, and an mNav currently reported at 0.84.
Recent Developments: Increased holdings by 19,271 ETH.
The Ether Machine
Data: Currently holds 496,700 ETH, with a holding value of $1.7 billion, a company market value of $171 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.08 (has never reached 1).
Recent Developments: Plans to go public through a merger with Dynamix.
BTCS Inc.
Data: Currently holds 70,000 ETH, with a holding value of $239 million, a company market value of $143 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.6.
Recent Developments: Distributing dividends and bonuses to shareholders in the form of ETH.
FG Nexus
Data: Currently holds 50,000 ETH, with a holding value of $173.5 million, a company market value of $142 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.82.
Recent Developments: Expanding European users, has been listed on the Deutsche Börse, stock code "LU51".
ETHZilla
Data: Currently holds 93,790 ETH, with a holding value of $320 million, a company market value of $277.3 million, and an mNav currently reported at 0.86.
Recent Developments: Attempting to raise mNav, sold $40 million worth of ETH to buy back company stock (but was unsuccessful).
A Race of Declining Cryptocurrency Prices and Treasury Company Stock Prices: Will They Sell BTC/ETH to Maintain Operations?
DAT is essentially a cycle of financing and buying cryptocurrencies, obtaining high valuations to continue issuing bonds/stocks to buy more cryptocurrencies. The premise of this metric is "holding for profit," but if the price of cryptocurrencies falls after purchase, leading to a decline in stock prices, it becomes a race of declining cryptocurrency prices and circulating stock prices. The two major "pain points" faced by DAT companies are debt repayment and financing obstacles. In the future, it may be inevitable that they will face situations where they need to sell cryptocurrencies to repay part of their debts, and the concern that treasury companies will sell cryptocurrencies to maintain operations is what worries everyone the most.
For some companies with strong financing capabilities and sufficient scale, this issue may not be a concern in the short term. For example, Strategy, with Saylor as a diamond hand, has repeatedly emphasized never selling BTC. Strategy also has strong financing capabilities in the capital market and prudent capital structure management. In the short term, Strategy continues to make small purchases of BTC, but in the medium to long term, if BTC enters a bear market or debts approach maturity, coupled with S&P's previous B- rating for Strategy (which views Strategy as a high default risk "junk"), if the rating has a long-term impact, Strategy's stock price and financing capabilities will also be affected, increasing the probability of selling Bitcoin to repay debts. Although the current BTC bull-bear cycle is not a 4-year rotation, the scenario of BTC bear market prices falling below $90,000 can be temporarily disregarded.
Previously, crypto analyst Willy Woo also stated:
Michael Saylor's Strategy (MSTR) will not need to sell part of its Bitcoin reserves to repay debts during the next significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market. The debt of Strategy is primarily composed of convertible senior notes. Strategy can choose to repay maturing convertible debt in cash, common stock, or a combination of both. Strategy has about $1.01 billion in debt maturing on September 15, 2027. To avoid needing to sell Bitcoin to repay debts, the stock trading price of Strategy must be above $183.19. He added that this price is roughly equivalent to a Bitcoin price of about $91,502, assuming mNAV is 1.
Saylor may not need to worry about Strategy selling BTC for now, but for many companies with limited liquidity, high debt, and weak financing capabilities, the situation is not as favorable. The need to sell Bitcoin to repay debts is not unique to one company; the previously mentioned U.S. listed semiconductor company Sequans Communications also sold 970 BTC in early November to redeem about 50% of its convertible bonds, reducing total company debt from $189 million to $94.5 million, and the debt-to-net asset value ratio dropped from 55% to 39%.
Similarly, the Ethereum treasury company ETHZilla also sold $40 million worth of ETH at the end of October this year for stock buybacks, hoping to bring its mNAV back above 1. However, the problem is that its stock price is falling even faster than the token (ETH), as mentioned earlier, the sale of tokens by DAT will affect its stock price. Currently, ETHZilla has a market value of $266.6 million, with ETH holdings valued at $322.2 million, and an mNav of 0.82, which has not returned to 1.
Reality shows that the demand from TradFi, this "big buyer," for these DAT stocks is minimal. Even if cryptocurrencies rebound by the end of the year, the performance of DAT stocks may still not improve without the support of TradFi, and it may be a long time before mNav returns above 1. The longer DAT companies continue to trade with low mNav, the more desperate their shareholders become, ultimately leading to the sale of cryptocurrencies or facing discounted acquisitions. They control a large supply of BTC and ETH, and every sale could exert significant downward pressure on mainstream cryptocurrencies and altcoins.
Currently, very few DAT companies have successfully replicated Strategy, and the ultimate fate of DAT may be acquisition by Saylor or Tom Lee, leading to a re-concentration of cryptocurrency holdings. Whether through selling cryptocurrencies or being acquired, this offers no benefits to us as traders.
During the writing, Tom Lee retweeted a post: top institutions have bought BitMine stocks, including Ark, BlackRock, Vanguard Group, JP Morgan, and others. This somewhat reassured those of us worried about DAT; if DAT companies can hold on for a while until their stocks gradually return to the eyes of TradFi (investment portfolios), the future of DAT remains promising. It is difficult to speculate how long Wall Street giants will accept DAT stocks as "a while," and we can only hope that "the great leader" Trump can publicly announce some favorable measures for crypto DAT.
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