I. Recent Market Review

1. BTC Trend: It dropped to 100728 in the evening but rebounded after not breaking the key bottom of 100000; it traded sideways during the day yesterday, then started to rise to 104900 after 16:00 before falling again, which aligns with our strategy from the 12th.

2. Previous Strategy Execution: A short position was suggested at 103500 yesterday, which was successfully entered, and the market continued to decline to 11007, showing a significant drop.

3. ETH Trend: It surged to 3550 yesterday, with multiple instances of nearly a hundred points increase recently, demonstrating strong volatility.

II. Technical Analysis (Bearish Logic)

BTC

1. 4-Hour Level: The previous "up-down" alternating trend has been broken, and the trend structure has been violated, indicating a short-term bearish bias.

2. Daily Level: The middle band of the Bollinger Bands continues to suppress prices downward, with all three bands moving downwards, providing a clear bearish signal.

3. 12-Hour Level: The MACD indicator is about to form a death cross, releasing a bearish momentum signal.

4. Weekly Level: It was previously anticipated that this week would test downward, with a long-term target of 91000.

ETH

1. Daily Level: A gravestone doji candlestick was formed, with the closing price just near the support level of 3440; the clear resistance zone above is 3580-3588, with a core resistance level at 3588.

2. Key Support: The core support level is 3436, with the current price at 3441, which is close to breaking this support level. If the support fails, the downward trend will continue.

3. 12-Hour Level: The three bands of the Bollinger Bands are showing a downward trend, indicating a short-term bearish bias.

4. 4-Hour Level: It once broke through 3505 but only rose 50 points before starting to decline, making this point an important reference for resistance.

III. Today's Market Judgment and Operational Layout

Trend Prediction: There is a high probability that Thursday will continue the downward trend, with a very high chance of falling back to 98000.

11-13 Day Layout Sharing:

Short Bitcoin at 102500-103000, take profit at 101500-101000-100000;

Short Ethereum at 3450-3480, take profit at 3400-3550-3500

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