Horizontal consolidation is not a failure of Bitcoin, but a necessary stage for its successful maturation.
“Why isn’t Bitcoin rising?” This may be the most common question among current cryptocurrency market investors. Despite gold and U.S. stocks frequently hitting historical highs, Bitcoin has been stuck in a prolonged horizontal consolidation, leaving many investors confused and frustrated.
Financial analyst Jody Wiser offers a fresh perspective: Bitcoin is not in a bear market; rather, it is undergoing a “silent IPO,” transitioning from a rebellious “geek toy” to a globally recognized financial asset.
This process is similar to the early investors cashing out after a tech company goes public, with ownership shifting from insiders to a broader base of institutional investors. Understanding the essence of this transition is crucial for grasping Bitcoin's future trajectory.
1. Market Confusion: Bitcoin's Consolidation and Divergence
The cryptocurrency market in 2025 presents a perplexing picture. The S&P 500 index is nearing historical highs, the Nasdaq index continues to rise, and gold has surpassed the $4,300 mark, with traditional risk assets performing well overall. However, Bitcoin seems to be an exception, caught in prolonged horizontal consolidation.
● Even more perplexing is that the fundamentals of the Bitcoin market appear very healthy. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has been approved and continues to attract capital inflows, institutional adoption is accelerating, the regulatory framework is becoming clearer, and there have been no major hacking incidents or narrative collapses. All the factors that should drive prices up are present, yet Bitcoin's price remains stagnant.
● This divergence from traditional risk assets sharply contrasts with the trend of Bitcoin being highly correlated with tech stocks over the past few years. Since December 2024, this correlation has been completely broken, leaving algorithmic traders and momentum investors puzzled.
2. Silent IPO: A New Paradigm for the Bitcoin Market
● Wiser believes that Bitcoin's current horizontal consolidation does not signal a bear market but marks its experience of a silent IPO. In traditional financial markets, after a company successfully goes public, early investors, founders, and employees begin to cash out, reaping the rewards of the risks they took early on.
● Although Bitcoin has never had a traditional IPO, it is undergoing similar economic forces. Those early investors who bought Bitcoin at $1, $10, or even $1,000 now hold epoch-making wealth. As Bitcoin enters the mainstream—ETFs are listed on the NYSE, large corporations are building Bitcoin reserves, and sovereign wealth funds are entering the market—these early investors can finally realize their returns.
● Five years ago, if someone sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, it would likely have thrown the market into chaos; but now, a diversified buyer base and ample trading volume can absorb such large transactions more smoothly.
3. Ownership Transfer: From OG Whales to Institutional Investors
On-chain data clearly illustrates this trend of ownership transfer. According to AiCoin data, approximately 52% of circulating Bitcoin (about 19.94 million coins) has been idle for over a year, down from about 61% at the beginning of 2024. This change indicates that long-term holders are reallocating their Bitcoin, while previously “dormant” Bitcoin is re-entering circulation.
● Meanwhile, institutional channels are absorbing this supply. Since the beginning of 2024, the holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies (like MicroStrategy) have surged from about 600,000 coins to 1.9 million coins.
● These institutional channels have absorbed nearly 57% of the net increase in supply from short-term holders, currently accounting for nearly a quarter of all active Bitcoin over the past year.
● This transfer of ownership is not just a numerical change; it represents a fundamental shift in the structure of the Bitcoin market. In August 2025, Galaxy Digital sold $9 billion worth of Bitcoin for a client, a transaction of this magnitude would have been nearly impossible a few years ago, but now it can be smoothly absorbed by the market.
4. Market Maturity: Decreased Volatility and Institutional Acceptance
As the ownership structure of Bitcoin changes, its market characteristics are also significantly shifting. The most obvious sign is the substantial decrease in Bitcoin's volatility.
● AiCoin data shows that since the Bitcoin ETF began trading in January 2024, its volatility has significantly decreased. In the third quarter of 2025, Bitcoin's 30-day volatility even dropped to 2.5%, far below historical levels. This level of volatility is not only much lower than Bitcoin's own historical performance but is also beginning to approach that of large tech stocks.
● The decrease in volatility reflects the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class, making it more attractive to institutional investors. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan points out that this change means “the era of 1% allocation to Bitcoin is over,” with more investors starting to view 5% as the starting point for BTC allocation.
● Lower volatility means that holding more of such assets becomes safer, which has profound implications for Bitcoin's role in traditional investment portfolios.
5. Historical Precedents: The Post-IPO Patterns of Tech Giants
The IPO history of traditional tech companies provides valuable insights for understanding Bitcoin's current stage.
● Take Facebook, for example; it went public in May 2012 at $38 per share, and for more than a year afterward, its stock price remained flat or even declined, only returning to its IPO price 15 months later. Google and other high-profile tech startups exhibited similar trends.
● The horizontal consolidation of these companies post-IPO does not indicate issues with the assets themselves but is a natural result of early investors cashing out. Those who bet on startups when the risks were extremely high naturally want to realize profits after reaping hundredfold returns.
● The process of insiders selling and institutions taking over takes time; only when this transfer of ownership reaches a certain balance can stock prices begin to rise again. Unlike these tech companies, Bitcoin does not need to continue growing revenue and profits after completing this transfer of ownership. For Bitcoin to grow from its current $2.5 trillion market cap to gold-level $25 trillion market cap, the only requirement is widespread acceptance.
6. Future Outlook: The Development Path of Bitcoin in the Post-IPO Era
● If Bitcoin is indeed in a “silent IPO” phase, investors should have reasonable expectations regarding the duration of this process and future trends. In traditional markets, the distribution period after an IPO typically lasts 6-18 months. Bitcoin may have entered this process months ago, but it may not be complete yet.
● Once early investors finish selling, the market structure of Bitcoin will be healthier than ever. When assets are concentrated in the hands of a few holders, the market is inherently fragile—decisions made by a few wallets can significantly impact prices.
● However, as ownership disperses among millions of investors, the market structurally becomes more stable and can absorb large transactions without causing severe volatility. The report “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Hypothesis” released by Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will reach $1.3 million per coin by 2035, and this prediction may still be conservative.
From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's current horizontal consolidation is a “gift,” providing investors with an excellent opportunity to buy more chips before it restarts its upward trend.
Looking back at the history of technology, every revolutionary technology undergoes a similar evolutionary trajectory—from early believers taking risks, to successful early investors cashing out, to ownership transferring to a broader base of supporters.
Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to a durable store of value. A distributed holder base, declining volatility, and an increasingly mature market structure are all essential paths for Bitcoin to grow into a global monetary asset.
Bitcoin's silent IPO is not the end of its journey but the beginning of a new phase. As Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated: “Bitcoin is experiencing its IPO moment. If history is any guide, we should embrace this new phase by increasing our holdings.”
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