Good evening everyone, I am Lao Lian Dao Jiang Xin. The market has been quite volatile these past few days, and those who trade in waves should have been able to secure a new residence or at least buy another BBA. Looking at the daily updates over the past three days, the overall rhythm is top-notch. Some predictions have deviated slightly, but adjustments based on market sentiment will yield good results. When I updated yesterday, it was in the afternoon, and the variables were in the evening session. Jiang Xin had previously mentioned continuing the thought process from the evening update on November 11, pointing out the levels around 105200 for Bitcoin and 3580, which correspond to the highest points for Ethereum during the evening session on November 12 and the early morning session today. Below, I will outline the thoughts from the past three days; there’s no need to look back, as this demonstrates the superiority of the Chande theory and the continuity of the old Lian Dao's rhythm.

Let’s briefly review. Influenced by news, the market experienced significant fluctuations during the evening and daytime sessions. Last night at 10:30, after breaking below 104800, there was a continuous increase in short positions over 15 minutes, driving the price down to 101200. There was no significant support here, and after a tug-of-war lasting several hours, it reached Jiang Xin's expected level of 100800 at 3 AM. A rebound began here, but the shorts did not pursue aggressively, as they were likely waiting for tonight's data. The daytime fluctuations centered around the 101800 level, and at 3 PM, there was buying pressure testing upward, but the 104000 level faced short attacks. This level corresponds to the one-hour EMA 120 and 144, as well as the middle band of the four-hour Bollinger Bands, indicating that the pressure level has overall shifted downward. By 5 PM, it dipped to the EMA 7 and 30 moving averages around 102800, showing some rebound, but at 7 PM, there was a second wave of selling, bringing the price back to around 102000.

From a structural perspective, if 104000 becomes a pressure point, those who chased long positions in this area will have to test 100800 again. If it breaks below that, it might touch around 98500. However, there will be resistance between 100800-101200, and the third rebound will not be as strong as the previous two; it’s best to maintain a bearish outlook overall.

In the past two days, the structure of Ethereum has shown a relatively strong rebound, but both the high and low points have been shifting downward, with divergence levels around 3475 and 3525. Over the past two days of tug-of-war, Ethereum has not had significant buying support, and the selling pressure after the rebound has been increasing. It’s best to maintain a bearish outlook overall.

I recommend continuing to short at 3475 and adding to the short position at 3525. Stop-loss levels should be planned according to your position size. Yesterday, the range was too narrow, and the market was aggressive, leading to unnecessary losses. A rebound to 3350 can be considered, but a stop-loss should be set at 3315.

The structure is quite awkward; we maintain a bearish outlook, trading in one direction, and be cautious with rebounds, as we cannot hold positions for too long.

Walk with giants, WeChat public account: Jiang Xin Lun Chan

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