Crypto Circle News
November 17 Highlights:
1. Michael Saylor releases Bitcoin Tracker information again, possibly hinting at disclosing increased BTC holdings.
2. According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 45.8%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 54.2%.
3. CNBC: Some Americans are using Bitcoin mining machines for heating this winter, indicating an emerging trend of "energy reuse" in the industry.
4. Metaplanet President: BTC ETF provides static exposure and will not weaken Metaplanet's advantages.
5. Japanese regulators plan to reclassify 105 cryptocurrencies, including BTC and ETH, as "financial products," potentially lowering the tax rate to 20%.
Trading Insights
Having been in the crypto space for many years, I understand that the core of profitability is not about accurately predicting market trends, but about adhering to strict rules to manage your hands and protect your capital. The following operational guidelines can help you reduce risks and achieve long-term stable profits!
- Insure Your Positions: Refuse to go all-in, use spare money to enter the market.
- ① Single cryptocurrency position ≤ 30% of total funds, high-risk altcoins ≤ 10%, to avoid significant losses from the volatility of a single asset.
- ② Invest only with "spare money that won't affect your life," maintaining a stable mindset to avoid panic or greed-driven mistakes.
- Set Boundaries for Trading: Set stop-loss and take-profit levels in advance; stay out of the market if unclear.
- ① Clearly define goals before each trade: for example, take profits in batches at a 20% increase, decisively exit at a 10% drop, and avoid the illusion of "waiting to break even" which depletes capital.
- ② When the market is unclear and trends are ambiguous, it’s better to stay out and observe than to blindly buy out of "fear of missing out," reducing the risk of ineffective trades.
- Decouple from Market Sentiment: Don’t chase trends, review and correct daily.
- ① Avoid following "insider news" and chasing short-term trends; most "good news" is what others want you to see, preventing you from buying at high prices.
- ② Spend 10 minutes daily reviewing: Check if your actions align with your plan? Did you enter impulsively? Record mistakes to avoid repeating them.
- Deep Dive into Targets: Understand 2-3 cryptocurrencies, focus on long-term logic.
- ① Don’t be greedy: Instead of juggling 100 coins, focus on 2-3 mainstream coins, familiarizing yourself with their volatility patterns and capital flows.
- ② Anchor to project fundamentals: Pay attention to code updates, ecosystem progress, and regulatory dynamics, as these are the long-term core logic supporting prices, not short-term candlestick fluctuations.
LIFE IS LIKE
A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real trades from the Big White Community's group this week. Congratulations to those who followed along; if your trades are not going well, you can come and test the waters.
Data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from when it was issued.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks Coins*
BTC
Analysis
Next week, there are two important data points, both on Thursday. One is the Nvidia earnings report released early Thursday morning, which should directly impact the recent AI sector's performance. The other is the September non-farm payroll data released Thursday evening, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. From a timing perspective, its impact may not be significant, and it is still pre-shutdown data, but it should still have some effect on the market. On Sunday, BTC's price fell below $94,000, triggering some panic, with turnover increasing by nearly 50% compared to Saturday. The data shows that the most active trading was from investors who bought in at $95,000 in the last two days, possibly worried that the U.S. stock market would continue to decline on Monday, dragging BTC down again. Although BTC's price has further declined, the chip structure remains very solid, and there are no signs of damage to the support level. A large number of high-position investors who are at a loss have not shown panic. I still believe that BTC's price returning to the support level is only a matter of time.
ETH
Analysis
Weekly level for Ethereum: The price has seen three consecutive bearish candles, with last week's candlestick closing as a large bearish candle, and the price has dropped from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower Bollinger Band, with a decline of about 40%. Currently, it is oversold and has reached the support of the lower Bollinger Band, so we will look for a short-term rebound from the oversold condition.
Daily level: The candlestick pattern shows a double bottom, with the right side's low being lower than the left side's low, which is favorable for triggering long stop-losses and clearing leverage, benefiting subsequent upward movement.
From the Vegas system perspective, the price has stabilized above ema576 and 676, while the upper resistance remains near 3630.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the current price is hovering around the 0.5 support level. If it rebounds and then breaks below again, it could drop to the 0.618 support level around 2800.
4-hour level: The price is forming a W bottom at the bottom, with a bullish TD9 on the left shoulder and a bullish morning star pattern on the right shoulder.
In terms of Bollinger Bands, the price is moving in a flat manner from the lower to the upper band. The upper band is the intraday resistance at 3240: W bottom neck line + upper Bollinger Band, and a long position can be set near the right shoulder of the W bottom.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
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