Key Points:
Newer Bitcoin investors sold over 148,000 BTC at a loss on Friday.
Analysts say that if the BTC price falls below the January 1 opening price of $93,000, it could trigger a new round of declines, further probing the area below $90,000.
The end of the U.S. government shutdown did not improve investor sentiment, with BTC prices dipping to $92,000 on Sunday, erasing almost all of this year's gains. This prompted investors and traders to reassess risks and remain cautious, with recent buyers selling their BTC at a loss.
Since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 on October 16, BTC has retraced 25%. Falling below the 50-week moving average and closing below $100,000 for the first time in six months has led BTC investors to adopt a more risk-averse stance.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that over 148,000 BTC held by retail or new entrants (holding less than 1M BTC and held for less than a month) were sold at a loss on November 11.
CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated in Sunday’s Quicktake analysis: “This panic selling occurred when the BTC price was around $96,853, well below their average purchase price of $102,000 to $107,000.” He added:
Additional data from Glassnode shows that short-term holders (investors holding for less than 155 days) transferred over 20,175 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday. This number surged to 39,034 BTC on November 14, coinciding with BTC's price drop of 13.5% from $107,500 to $92,900.
This behavior highlights a common market behavior pattern: short-term speculators panic sell during market downturns, often leading to realized losses.
Analysts say these investors are likely experiencing their first significant pullback, “choosing to lock in losses to avoid deeper downside risks, thus turning paper losses into actual losses.” They added:
BTC recently fell below the 50-week moving average, prompting several traders and analysts to predict that prices will further retrace below $90,000.
Cryptocurrency analyst Jelle stated that BTC prices “are in another adjustment period, which is part of BTC's overall upward trend.”
Jelle added that BTC “may trade sideways until the end of the year or drop another 5%, before pushing towards new highs again.”
If it drops 5% from the current price level, BTC/USD could extend its decline to $89,300.
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC stated: “BTC should see a rebound, but… there may still be one more dip below $90,000 to come.”
AlphaBTC noted that if it closes below the yearly opening price of $93,300, the price could further decline, potentially bottoming around the April low of $74,000.
📈#Bitcoin End of Year game plan 📈Bitcoin is due a bounce, but I have a sneaky feeling there is still one more dip below 90K to come, before it happens. Then we wait for more Rates and Jobs data, which could still be a while in coming, BUT when it does I think the last big… pic.twitter.com/CXJ6FVanLf
Meanwhile, the prediction market platform Polymarket gives different price probabilities for the remainder of the week. The most likely outcome for BTC is $98,000, with a 70% probability; the probability of closing below $92,000 is 55%; the probability of dropping to $90,000 is 35%. The probability of returning to $100,000 is 50%.
According to Cointelegraph, BTC may continue its downward trend, trading in the buy range of $88,500 to $92,000.
Related: Bitcoin (BTC) ETF outflows reach $1.1 billion, analysts warn of a potential "mini" bear market at a critical moment.
This article does not constitute any investment advice or recommendation. All investment and trading activities carry risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making decisions.
Original article: “Short-term Bitcoin holders panic sell 148K BTC, analysts expect BTC to drop below $90K”
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