Good morning, crypto friends ☀ I am Wang Yibo! Die-hard fans check in 👍 Like for big profits 🍗🍗🌹🌹, tracking the latest trends in the crypto world in real-time, accurately grasping trading opportunities. Today, we focus on the core of market fluctuations, breaking down the trends and operational logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum!

Macro Market: US Stocks Close Lower + Diminishing Rate Cut Expectations, Crypto Market Under Pressure Awaiting Breakthrough

All three major US stock indices closed lower yesterday, with the Dow Jones down 1.07%, the S&P 500 down 0.83%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 1.21%. Large tech stocks were hit hard, with Amazon and AMD dropping over 4%, Microsoft and Nvidia down over 2%, and Tesla down over 1%. The weak performance of tech stocks directly dragged down the sentiment for risk assets.

The direction of the Federal Reserve's policy has become a key variable. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is only 48.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has surpassed to 51.1%; the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January next year is 49.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is only 18.4%. The cooling of rate cut expectations has led to a withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets, compounded by the concentration of economic data releases this week, which may further expand the volatility in the crypto market. Stay tuned to Yibo for real-time dynamic guidance!

Bitcoin: After Falling Below $90,000, It Rebounds Amidst Fluctuations, Key Range Awaiting Breakthrough Signal

Bitcoin faced pressure after reaching a high of $96,000 the previous day, with yesterday's market showing a "first decline then rise" fluctuation pattern. After dipping to a low of $91,200 in the early morning, it slightly rebounded to $92,500 but fell back again due to weak upward momentum; during the afternoon session, shorts pushed it down to a recent low of $89,250, followed by stabilization and holding above the $90,000 mark; in the evening session, after a brief pullback to $90,910, bulls counterattacked, peaking at $93,780, currently hovering around $93,000.

From a technical perspective, the current range is continuously converging, with balanced short and long momentum leading to unclear direction, currently in a critical choice period. Although there was slight stabilization after the previous dip, it has not been able to break through the mid-track resistance, and the upward momentum of the second wave is insufficient, requiring time for consolidation and accumulation. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has retraced nearly 30% from its historical high of $126,250 at the beginning of October, erasing all gains for 2025, with over 170,000 liquidations across the network within 24 hours, totaling 6.7 billion yuan. In the short term, focus on range fluctuations, patiently waiting for effective breakthrough signals, as news stimuli may become the core to break the deadlock.

Ethereum: Simultaneous Fluctuation Adjustment, Key Support Level Becomes Defensive Core

Ethereum is showing a similar fluctuation adjustment pattern to Bitcoin, having faced pressure after reaching a high of $3,220 the previous day. In the early morning yesterday, shorts broke below the $3,000 mark, with a daytime low of $2,944, followed by slight consolidation above $3,000; in the evening session, influenced by the overall market, it launched a bullish counterattack, peaking around $3,170 before facing pressure and falling back, currently fluctuating narrowly around $3,120.

From a technical structure perspective, the rhythm on Ethereum's 4-hour chart has clearly slowed down, with repeated patterns confirming support after rising and falling. This week, it is crucial to pay attention to the key defensive support level; if this level is broken, it may trigger a deep adjustment, and the mid-term downward space may further expand. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are in a contracting state, and the 1-hour chart is caught in a high-level dull fluctuation, with no clear trend direction in the short term. The daily trading strategy should treat it as a fluctuation, adopting a high short and low long participation strategy around the range.

Market Sentiment and Operational Reminders

The current crypto market has entered a sensitive stage of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with ETFs experiencing capital outflows for five consecutive weeks and long-term holders continuously selling off, leading to a subtle deterioration in market sentiment. However, some Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about Bitcoin reaching the $150,000 - $200,000 range by the end of the year. Macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction will become core variables in the short term. It is recommended that crypto friends maintain a cautious mindset, strictly control position risks, and avoid blindly chasing highs and cutting losses.

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If you are feeling lost—don’t understand the technology, don’t know how to read the market, don’t know when to enter, don’t know how to set stop losses, don’t understand take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck at the bottom, unable to hold profits, missing out on opportunities… these are common issues for retail investors. But don’t worry, I can help you establish the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth a thousand words; finding the right direction is better than repeatedly losing. Instead of frequent operations, it’s better to strike accurately, making each trade more valuable. If you need real-time guidance, you can scan the QR code below the article to follow my public account. The market changes rapidly, and due to the timeliness of reviews, subsequent trends will be based on real-time layouts. I look forward to steadily moving forward with you in the market.

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