The Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone says his earlier prediction that bitcoin would “drop a zero” when it traded near $10,000 was only partially right, noting the asset bottomed around $3,000 instead of plunging into triple-digit territory. Now, he’s issuing a similar warning: bitcoin could slide back toward $10,000 if risk assets unwind in unison.

McGlone argues the backdrop is far more bloated than it was seven years ago. In 2018, the crypto market was crowded with a few thousand coins; today, it’s teeming with millions of tokens, a wave he sees as textbook late-cycle mania. Add in exchange-traded fund (ETF) hype and political tailwinds — he points to the Trump administration’s acceleration of crypto enthusiasm — and he draws a straight line to the kind of euphoric peaks seen in the past.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone sharing his prediction.

He also leans heavily on volatility for his macro case. McGlone notes the VIX’s 200-day moving average has formed what he calls a “bull flag,” with implied volatility poised to break higher as equities sit in an unnervingly calm pocket. The 120-day realized volatility for stocks hovers around 10% — on pace to be the lowest since 2017 — a combination he views as complacency before a reset. In his view, bitcoin’s weakness isn’t contained; it’s the first domino.

On the technical side, McGlone says bitcoin’s old support at $100,000 has flipped into resistance, with the asset now boxed between $90,000 and $100,000. A bounce isn’t off the table, but he expects “responsive sellers” to cap any breakout. The long-term trend, he argues, has already cracked: bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has rolled over, and Strategy’s has been sliding since August.

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His downside target sits at $50,000 on a long-term chart, a level he considers “normal” in the context of a broader risk-off cycle. He warns investors not to be fooled by sharp rallies, calling them a hallmark of bear markets rather than evidence of recovery.

McGlone points to the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index — now down about 14% on the year after previously climbing roughly a third — as another signal that the reversal is already underway. If equities follow the same arc, he believes the entire market structure could tilt lower into year-end. McGlone’s prediction comes as BTC dropped beneath the $90,000 range on Wednesday.

For him, one clue stands above the rest: gold is outperforming. When gold grabs alpha, he argues, something is structurally off. And the last time he saw this setup with such clarity? 2008.

• What is Mike McGlone warning about?
  He says bitcoin could fall sharply, potentially revisiting levels as low as $50,000 or even $10,000 if risk assets unwind.
• Why does he think bitcoin may drop further?
  McGlone points to token oversupply, ETF-driven euphoria, and weakening long-term technical trends.
• How does the broader market factor into his outlook?
  He believes declining crypto prices may spill into equities as volatility indicators begin to rise.
• What role does gold play in his analysis?
  McGlone highlights gold’s outperformance as a signal that risk markets could be entering a defensive cycle.

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