Preface——

The sting on the tongue suddenly awakens: you can't rush eating, and life is the same; only after making a complete mess of things do you realize: don't be blinded by superficial profits, greed is the root of losses; suffering a margin call without a stop-loss is heart-wrenching: self-comfort through luck cannot withstand the harsh reality, respecting the rules is the bottom line. All the stumbling and fumbling are actually destined growth — without tripping a few times, you can never figure out which path is stable and far-reaching; without falling a few times, you can never see clearly which pits to avoid.

Having suffered losses and fallen down, fear is useless, and sinking deeper is even more useless. The market is always full of opportunities, and the trends are always advancing; what we need to do is to calmly review every mistake, engrave the lessons into our bones, fill the gaps, practice hard skills, and gradually improve ourselves. The pits we once fell into have now become our "pitfall guide"; the mines we once stepped on have now become our "armor" — why can't we make a profit?!

In the market, most people fall in the darkness before dawn, complaining about bad luck; while true strong individuals can always endure tonight's storms, turning every loss into a stepping stone, waiting for tomorrow's dawn to break through the clouds, smiling as they reap the profits that rightfully belong to them.

Bitcoin Breaks Through $90,000: A Comprehensive Overview of Macro, Market, and Operations

In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has gently strengthened under the support of macro data divergence and policy expectations, with Bitcoin breaking through $90,000 in the early morning and Ethereum simultaneously rising above $3,000, showing a significant recovery compared to last week.

Macro Data and Policy Signals: Stable Expectations for Rate Cuts Amid Divergence

1. Unemployment Claims Data Shows Contradictory Trends

• As of the week ending November 22, initial unemployment claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, lower than the market expectation of 225,000, indicating that the current scale of layoffs remains low.

• Continuing unemployment claims increased by 7,000 to 1.96 million, reflecting the growing difficulty for the unemployed to find reemployment, revealing hidden weakness in the labor market.

1. Beige Book Releases Neutral to Warm Signals

• The Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve in the early morning shows that U.S. economic activity is basically stable, with prices rising moderately, mainly driven by tariffs and healthcare costs.

• A key highlight is the continued weakness in labor demand, with half of the districts reporting a decline in employers' hiring intentions, and some companies only maintaining replacement hiring, providing a realistic basis for rate cuts.

1. Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen Market Confidence

• JPMorgan has changed its stance, adjusting its December rate cut forecast from "unchanged" to "a 25bp cut," and expects another rate cut in January next year.

• The market's probability of a 25bp rate cut in December remains stable at around 84%, with expectations for policy easing unaffected by data divergence.

Market Support Factors: Resonance of Funds and On-Chain Signals

1. Continuous Improvement in Fund Flows

• The outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds has significantly slowed, recently recording a net inflow in a single day, with clear signs of fund inflow into core products like BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC, ending the continuous redemption wave since November.

• Institutional buying attitudes have warmed, with products under Fidelity and other institutions receiving increased funding, providing incremental buying support for the market.

1. Accumulation of On-Chain Bullish Momentum

• This week, on-chain data continues to show an increase in bullish buying, with perpetual futures funding rates turning positive, and bullish bets regaining dominance.

• After two days of sideways consolidation, the market digested short-term selling pressure, and technical buying followed after breaking through the $88,000 resistance level, pushing the price above the $90,000 mark.

Current Market Situation and Outlook

• The upward momentum is moderate and controllable, with cautious sentiment still present in the market, mainly due to strong profit-taking willingness from investors after significant previous declines, with no strong unilateral market momentum at present.

• Today, the U.S. market is closed for Thanksgiving, leading to thin market liquidity and likely reduced volatility; the Asian and European sessions are expected to focus on consolidation, continuing the stabilization trend after a slow rise.

• Overall, the market has significantly improved compared to last week, with the stability above the $90,000 mark laying the foundation for future trends; if macro policy signals continue to lean warm, further upward resistance may be expected.

Short-Term Bitcoin Trading Suggestions

1. Support Levels for Pullbacks: Establish long positions in the $87,500-$88,000 range, targeting $89,000-$89,500.

2. Resistance Levels for Rebounds: Establish short positions in the $91,000-$91,500 range, targeting $89,000-$90,000.

[Warm Reminder: Market conditions change rapidly, suggestions are for reference only; for more real-time consultations, feel free to communicate with me online]

——Original by the author, welcome to follow and like

This article is exclusively published by (WeChat Official Account: Jane Crypto) for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human nature and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, honing ourselves, and striving for long-term strength.

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