Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.09 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.5%, or $1.8 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $30.61 billion, which has increased by 1.08% over the past week. The number of stablecoins has reversed this week, showing positive growth, primarily driven by Circle, with USDT making up 60.31%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen. Specifically, BTC has decreased by 0.78% over the past week, SOL by 2.23%, SAHARA by 12.05%, AIOZ by 8.09%, and PI by 7.85%. After experiencing a decline, the crypto world has begun to recover, but the situation has not significantly improved.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $70.5 million; the net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $312 million.
Market Forecast (December 1 - December 7):
The current RSI index is 48.71 (neutral range), and the fear and greed index is 27 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range). The altcoin season index is 37 (neutral, higher than last week).
BTC core range: $85,000-95,000
ETH core range: $2,800-3,300
SOL core range: $126-156
Market sentiment: The market has emerged from the "extreme fear" phase and is slowly recovering, but due to the four-year cycle theory and whale sell-offs, prices have not achieved a V-shaped reversal. Bitmine continues to accumulate ETH, and this week, U.S. spot ETFs have shown net inflows. "Cathie Wood" is bottom-fishing in crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Circle. The current focus is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10. The market has high expectations for a rate cut; if realized, it usually means improved liquidity, which could boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, if expectations are not met, it may trigger market volatility. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December is 82.8%. Ethereum is expected to undergo the Fusaka upgrade on December 4. Following the Upbit theft incident, SOL prices are under pressure, but recent net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs have provided some support for prices.
For conservative investors: When the market is in the "extreme fear" range, it is often a good time for medium to long-term positioning. You may consider gradually buying small amounts near key support levels to lower your average cost, without rushing to make a large investment at once.
For active traders: In the current volatile market, consider lightly going long near support levels and reducing positions or considering shorting near resistance levels. Always set stop-loss orders for all trades.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On November 24, a report from CITIC Securities stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at further rate cuts in December, reversing market expectations for a rate cut, with the market now believing there is a 70% chance the Fed will cut rates in December. The Fed will enter a quiet period starting November 29, during which Powell has no public speaking or media interview schedule, making Williams' remarks potentially the last influential comments from a Fed official before the meeting;
On November 24, market data showed that U.S. stocks surged at the market open, with the Nasdaq rising over 1.5% and the S&P 500 index expanding its gains to 1%, while cryptocurrency stocks generally rose;
On November 25, the U.S. White House is attempting to accelerate the enhancement of the country's scientific research capabilities through the application of artificial intelligence. President Trump signed an executive order on Monday to launch the "Genesis Mission" plan, requiring the Department of Energy and other research institutions to actively promote the deployment of artificial intelligence. Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, called it "the largest integration of federal research resources since the Apollo program";
On November 25, JPMorgan Chase closed the personal account of Strike CEO Jack Mallers, raising renewed concerns in the U.S. crypto industry about the wave of "debanking";
On November 26, according to The Block, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, continued to increase its holdings in Block, Circle, and Coinbase amid falling cryptocurrency prices and a sluggish overall crypto market;
On November 27, mainstream cryptocurrencies in the crypto market showed a significant rebound. According to HTX market information, Bitcoin returned to $90,000 after a week, currently priced at $90,355, with a 24-hour increase of 3.83%;
On November 27, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino responded to S&P's latest rating of Tether, stating, "We take pride in being hated by you." Paolo Ardoino pointed out that the traditional rating system has long led investors to ultimately collapse "investment-grade" institutions, raising global regulatory concerns about the independence of rating agencies. He stated that the traditional financial system is unwilling to see any company break free from its "failing gravity," but Tether has built the industry's first over-capitalized, toxic asset-free, and consistently highly profitable company, proving that the fragility of the old system is making the "emperor's new clothes" rulers uneasy;
On November 27, according to DL News, South Korea's financial regulatory agency urged Bithumb to suspend its Tether market services, which allowed customers to buy and sell Bitcoin and nine other high-market-cap altcoins using USDT, although these ten assets can continue to be traded in the KRW market;
On November 27, South Korea's largest crypto exchange Upbit disclosed that it detected abnormal withdrawal behavior at 4:42 AM on November 27, with approximately 54 billion KRW (about $36 million) of Solana network-related digital assets transferred to an unknown external wallet address. Upbit will bear all customer losses;
On November 28, according to official news, YZi Labs Management Ltd. stated that as a significant shareholder of CEA Industries Inc. (NASDAQ: BNC), it has submitted a preliminary consent statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking shareholder written consent to expand the company's board of directors to include experienced and highly qualified directors.
Macroeconomics
On November 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, with an expectation of 225,000;
On November 28, according to the Fed rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 82.8%.
ETF
According to statistics, from November 24 to November 28, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $70.5 million; as of November 28, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.971 billion, currently holding $15.21 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.611 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $119.682 billion.
The net inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $312 million.
Envisioning the Future
Upcoming Events
Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);
Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.
Project Progress
The Aster Stage 3 airdrop checker will open on December 1, 2025, with airdrop claims starting on December 15;
The fourth round of compensation for FTX is expected to start in January 2026, with the qualification confirmation deadline possibly in December;
The Spanish Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation announced that the EU Crypto Asset Market Law (MiCA) will be implemented at the national level in December 2025. The deadline for all 27 EU member states to implement MiCA is July 2026;
The U.S. publicly listed company Sonnet BioTherapeutics has postponed its merger vote to December 2, planning to merge with Rorschach I LLC to form Hyperliquid Strategies and advance the HYPE reserve strategy;
Aztec's AZTEC token sale is scheduled to take place from December 2 to 6, 2025, supported by Uniswap's newly launched Continuous Clearing Auction (CCA) protocol. CCA is a customizable protocol for launching liquidity and issuing tokens on Uniswap v4. The protocol was designed in collaboration with Aztec, which provides a ZK Passport module for private and verifiable participation. The starting price for this sale is set at a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $350 million, approximately 75% lower than the implied network valuation based on the latest equity financing.
Important Events
On December 3, the U.S. will announce the ADP employment numbers for November (in ten thousand);
On December 4, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (in ten thousand);
On December 5, the U.S. will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for September.
Token Unlocking
Audiera (BEAT) will unlock 21.25 million tokens on December 1, valued at approximately $20.26 million, accounting for 2.12% of the circulating supply;
Lagrange (LA) will unlock 12.7 million tokens on December 4, valued at approximately $5 million, accounting for 1.27% of the circulating supply;
MYX Finance (MYX) will unlock 30.37 million tokens on December 6, valued at approximately $77.5 million, accounting for 3.04% of the circulating supply;
Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 7, valued at approximately $5.47 million, accounting for 1.13% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
