Today, I will mainly discuss the changes in the short-term market and provide operational suggestions.
- Review of Yesterday's Market: 92,000 → 88,000, Short-term Short Positions Realized
Yesterday morning, the price was around 92,000. At that time, Bitcoin formed a typical double top structure on the hourly chart and showed a pullback after breaking the neckline, corresponding to the break of the previous low.
Once this hourly turning point is established, it has the potential to push the hourly cycle into a new reversal segment. Therefore, the viewpoint given yesterday was: short-term layout of short positions, with the stop loss set at the previous high.
Subsequently, the market dropped from 92,000 all the way to 88,000, a decline of nearly 4,000 points. If one participated in the short position, exiting during this segment was completely reasonable.
After realizing the short position, I suggest waiting for a rebound and then continuing to lay out short positions at higher levels, with the stop loss still at the previous high. This overall viewpoint was already discussed in advance on December 4th.
- Two Expected Market Trends from December 4th
At that time, I provided two expectations:
Expectation 1: Top at the current position → Direct decline → Form a downward continuation → Target below at 75,000
This path is characterized by "top → decline → channel adjustment → break → further decline," a type of rapid continuation.
Expectation 2: Sideways adjustment at the current position → Slightly push to a higher high → Complete the delivery → Then decline
This type of movement will first wash out the shorts and then fall back together.
Regardless of the path, the core viewpoint remains the same:
In the short term, do not chase highs; rebounds provide opportunities for shorts.
This is also why we have continuously executed multiple short positions recently:
Dogecoin shorts, ZEC shorts, Ethereum shorts, Bitcoin shorts, with the short position from the day before yesterday yielding about 1,000 points.
Yesterday, I continued to short at 92,500 and exited successfully.
All these operations revolve around the same logic: rebound ends → new decline segment begins.
- Weekend Rhythm: Short-term Rebound Dominates, Likely to Continue Lower Next Week
Yesterday saw a decline of 4,000 points. According to convention, the market usually trends towards "slow rise or oscillation upwards" on weekends.
However, after this rebound ends, I believe it is highly likely that we will continue to decline next week and test the previous low area:
It may first test the previous low
It may also break the low
Then form a reversal segment
Rebound to retest the high once
Complete the liquidation of longs and shorts
And then continue into a new decline
The market often uses this rhythm of "first washing out shorts → then washing out longs → then following the main trend."
- Path: First Break Down → Then Rebound → Then Decline, Target 75,000
From the daily chart, the previous phase low is the defense zone for bulls, and it has also completed the interchange of support and resistance.
Key Range: 75,000–73,000
This is the main target range for the next segment of daily-level decline.
From the 4-hour chart, we are currently in a channel-type rebound, with the upper and lower boundaries of the channel tested more than twice.
Next, I am more inclined to:
Break down the channel → Test the previous low → Break the low → Rebound for adjustment → Ultimately reach the 75,000–73,000 range
So the next trading considerations could be:
Rebound to around 90,000 or above
Wait to short at high levels
Set the stop loss at 94,000
Target towards 75,000–73,000
- Ethereum: Rebound Ends, More Likely to Continue Weakening
Ethereum previously tested the core support on the daily chart but did not see significant demand emerge, so the effectiveness of the support is average.
The current structure still reflects a typical daily bearish rhythm.
The rebound magnitude is about 23%, which is very close to the previous 20% rebound, also belonging to a "strong but does not change the trend" rebound.
Key Resistance: 3,240
After this rebound ends, the main thought process remains:
Focus on shorting at high rebounds.
The next target should at least see the previous low break.
Since both Bitcoin and Ethereum are in a multi-cycle bearish structure, as long as a rapid rebound occurs, it is actually an opportunity for shorts.
The most challenging part during the decline is "chasing shorts without a good position,"
the rebound provides the "entry point."
Strategy:
Simultaneously hold long-term short positions
Add short-term swing shorts after the rebound
This way, the profit space will be larger than just doing one position.
For example, from 125,000 to 80,000, it moved 45,000 points.
The profit from swing trading often exceeds this 45,000 points.
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