The question about CIRCLE's skipping class army is really good, hitting the soul directly.
- There was a clear FOMO sentiment when it was listed, compounded by expectations of stablecoin legislation, and at that time, the market environment was also friendly to cryptocurrencies. In this situation, I only regret that I was too timid and didn't dare to chase the highs.
Now, the unwillingness to buy is because the speculative opportunities have disappeared. When I initially planned to buy, I considered that the short-term returns could exceed those of AI, even Nvidia, but now not only is there a large amount of unlocking, but it is also clear that buying AI might be more stable. Of course, I also think $MSTR, $COIN, and $HOOD are all worth considering.
The main reason is that the business models of these three are very clear, not to mention AI. However, CIRCLE's largest markets are the United States and Europe, especially in the U.S. If it cannot establish itself in payments, it will be forced to survive only on-chain. Of course, the opportunities on-chain are already quite good, but for stablecoins, if they cannot function as banks, the liquidity and income on-chain may not be proportional.
- Stablecoins often fluctuate on-chain, although rarely, but the moment the IRS defines it as an asset, it becomes very troublesome. Although I don't think people will consider taxes when consuming, it doesn't mean this doesn't exist. Who knows if future governments will target USD1 and consequently USDC.
The IRS is like a sword of Damocles hanging over retail payments; it may not strike, but when it does, non-compliance will be punished. I think CIRCLE, which has been reinforcing compliance, is unlikely to act rashly.
Moreover, from another perspective, the current online and offline payment systems in the U.S. are already very mature. Although some may say that credit cards have channel fees, if these channel fees are truly challenged, I believe they will also be adjusted. The fact that there are still such high channel fees and everyone is still using them is because the issuing companies of credit cards have not felt a fatal challenge.
Indeed, stablecoins have greater advantages in cross-border e-commerce and online usage, but the barriers are also higher. They require specialized wallets and more support from both B-end and C-end. In this regard, PYUSD will have an easier path. I have always believed that USDC's biggest explosion should be in the DeFi field, rather than competing for traditional shares with traditional payments.
Of course, I personally still have faith in USDC and $CRCL, but I just feel that now is not the right time for me to act. This also reflects my own considerations, as there are too many options in the U.S. stock market, and I don't want to spend too much time on speculation.
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