Market Analysis: Short-term Rebound Does Not Change Long-term Bearish Pattern

Short-term speculation looks at Hongwei, while long-term layout focuses on the pattern. As of December 19, 2025, the cryptocurrency market continues its previous volatile trend, with the tug-of-war between bulls and bears becoming increasingly intense.

Yesterday, the market experienced a significant drop, with Bitcoin's price plunging to a low of around 84,400, breaking through two key support levels at 83,850 and 88,580. From a trend perspective, the price is likely to approach the previous low of 83,790, seeking support in the 83,000-83,800 range. If this range is lost, the next important support level will point directly to the 80,000 mark.

Today's morning session opened with a rebound. Analyzing the market signals, the first target for this rebound can be seen at 87,800, and if broken, it may further challenge 88,500. Current operations can follow the trend, with a focus on whether the price can effectively stay above 87,900. It is important to clarify that the short-term rebound has not reversed the overall bearish trend of the market; the larger pattern still leans towards bearishness, and it is not recommended for investors to blindly position long orders under the current trend.

From the 4-hour chart, the market is still operating within a consolidation range. Although the price has broken through the short-term resistance at 86,100, the overall downward trend has not changed, and the consolidation appears more like a phase of adjustment within the trend. Moving forward, investors can patiently observe whether the price can break through the two major resistance levels of 87,900 and 88,500. If a strong breakout occurs, the market may welcome a new change. These two key positions can serve as profit-taking targets for long investors and ideal entry points for bearish positions. It is recommended to enter the market in batches and strictly control positions.

Looking at Ethereum's performance, it rebounded after hitting a low of 2,773 yesterday. The recent market has shown back-and-forth movements, highlighting opportunities for swing trading. Overall, the market still aligns with the previous judgment of "shorting after consolidation," but it is important to note that if a rally occurs after the consolidation ends, investors can also follow the trend for short-term long positions while closely monitoring trend reversal signals after the consolidation to assess whether the bullish trend can be sustained.

Currently, Ethereum's price is at a critical position, and attention should be paid to the performance around the 2,970 level, observing whether the price will face pressure and fall back or break upward. Today is Friday, and the market usually exhibits a certain degree of cautious sentiment, with most investors inclined to position short. However, from the perspective of major capital speculation, when market sentiment tends to be uniform, it often leads to counter-trend movements. It is not ruled out that whale funds may push prices against the trend to challenge the 3,000 mark, followed by a significant drop back to around 2,700, using sharp fluctuations to wash out retail investors' positions, ultimately continuing the downward trend without changing the long-term bearish outlook. Similar washout scenarios have occurred multiple times in the past, and investors should remain vigilant.

In summary, the mid-to-long-term bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market has not fundamentally changed. At this position, investors can choose to slowly position short or rely on short-term trends to take small long positions, such as participating in the rebound when Ethereum's price reaches 2,947 or higher. It is worth noting that if choosing to go long, one must enter and exit quickly, taking small profits, and accumulate gains through multiple swing trades; if positioning short, a strategy of light positions for trial and error, with gradual increases in positions, can be adopted.

Specifically, the ideal short position for Bitcoin can be focused around 87,500, while Ethereum should pay close attention to the pressure around the 3,000 mark, as both positions offer high shorting cost-effectiveness. If investors prefer to position long, it is recommended to wait for prices to fall back to more favorable levels, such as Ethereum dropping to 2,893 or Bitcoin retreating to 86,100, before entering the market.

In conclusion, the current market may have short-term rebound momentum, and a breakout from the consolidation range may lead to a wave of enticing long positions, but in the mid-to-long term, the bearish pattern remains clear, and the rebound is precisely a better opportunity to position short.

This concludes today's market analysis; we will meet again tomorrow.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。