Original Title: "Will the Crypto Industry Be Better in 2026?"

Original Author: Viee Xiao Wei, Biteye

In the last few months of 2025, the atmosphere of the bear market began to spread.

Bitcoin slid from its peak of $120,000, ETF inflows were once interrupted, and the trends of various cryptocurrencies diverged, with once-popular meme coins now ignored. Compared to the end of 2021, this time there was no sudden regulatory crackdown, and aside from the significant drop on October 11, there seemed to be no serious liquidity crisis, yet something still feels off.

If the crypto world in 2025 is a recalibration of true and false value, will crypto be better in 2026?

This article attempts to find an answer; perhaps we need to accept the fact that the crypto industry may be entering an era that no longer relies on one-sided rises or is driven by a "casino narrative."

I. Macroeconomic Winds Turning: Bitcoin Still at the Forefront

In the past year, Bitcoin's price performance and market positioning have undergone significant changes.

After surging to a historic high of $120,000, the market began to retreat, with increased volatility and gradually cooling market sentiment. Unlike past rallies driven by retail investors, this round of increases was primarily fueled by institutional funds behind ETFs. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., last month the average holding cost for U.S. ETFs was $79,000, which many consider one of the price support ranges. Therefore, Bitcoin's current trend increasingly resembles a high-volatility institutional asset, having an anti-inflation positioning similar to gold, while also being influenced by macro sentiment and risk appetite, exhibiting β attributes.

From a broader macro perspective, 2025 was a year of warming sentiment for global risk assets. AI was the main theme, U.S. stocks continuously hit new highs, and the Federal Reserve announced three interest rate cuts in December, leading the market back into a phase of warming liquidity expectations. The FOMC's economic forecast at the end of the year showed that the GDP growth expectation for the U.S. in 2026 was raised from 1.8% to 2.2%–2.5%. There is a general expectation that easing will continue next year, which may be favorable for assets like Bitcoin.

However, the market is not without risks. If the economy suddenly weakens in 2026 or inflation unexpectedly rebounds, risk assets may still face significant adjustments.

II. Regulatory Turning Point: Policy Trends in the U.S. and Hong Kong

Another important change in 2025 was the formal framework of regulation.

In the U.S., two key bills were enacted. The first is the Stablecoin Act (GENIUS Act), which clarifies the definition of stablecoins, reserve requirements, and issuance qualifications, providing a compliance path for mainstream stablecoin issuers. This bill was signed into law by the president in July 2025 and will take effect 18 months after signing or 120 days after regulatory agencies issue final rules. The second is the Crypto Asset Market Structure Act (CLARITY Act), which systematically delineates the boundaries between "security tokens" (regulated by the SEC) and "commodity tokens" (regulated by the CFTC), proposing tiered regulation. This bill will be submitted to the Senate for review in January and may require presidential approval, with the effective date to be determined. Meanwhile, the SEC is also accelerating the approval of more crypto ETFs to open channels for institutional products.

In Hong Kong, regulatory steps are also accelerating. In 2025, the Monetary Authority introduced a regulatory system for stablecoin issuers, clearly requiring all Hong Kong-based stablecoin issuers to be licensed. This means that future issuance of stablecoins like USD and RMB in Hong Kong must meet certain capital and compliance requirements. Additionally, HashKey has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first compliant platform with a core business in crypto trading to go public in Hong Kong, marking a milestone.

Overall, the regulatory trends in the U.S. and Hong Kong are aimed at curbing illegal speculation while opening legitimate business channels, promoting the industry's evolution towards institutionalization and compliance.

III. Three Main Lines: Stablecoins, Prediction Markets, and On-Chain U.S. Stocks

In recent years, the most stable growth curve in the crypto industry has actually been stablecoins.

By 2025, the global issuance of stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, with USDT and USDC together accounting for over 80%. Stablecoins are becoming part of the global payment network, with both USDT and USDC being used in everyday merchants and cross-border settlements.

In 2026, stablecoins are likely to be closer to the real world than ever before, as traditional giants like Visa, Stripe, and PayPal are already using stablecoins for settlements. For example, Stripe has begun supporting merchants to subscribe using stablecoins, with real services already in place.

Image Source: a16z

Additionally, with clearer regulations, government bond-backed stablecoins (backed by high-quality assets) and regional stablecoins are expected to emerge, such as the digital currency bridge projects promoted by Japan and the European Union.

Another area worth noting is prediction markets.

Originally, most people considered prediction market products too niche or non-compliant. However, they are now slowly becoming a combination of "on-chain betting + pricing tools" under themes like the U.S. elections, sports events, and economic data.

For instance, Kalshi has obtained a formal futures license from the U.S. CFTC, allowing it to legally launch prediction trading related to macroeconomic data, with its valuation now climbing to $11 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket has become a popular platform for users to bet and gauge public sentiment on topics like the U.S. elections and entertainment events.

In 2026, prediction markets may step out of the realm of pure speculation, where users not only bet on outcomes but also use money to vote, expressing their judgment on the probability of certain results occurring. This collective wisdom pricing method could be referenced by media, research institutions, and even trading strategies. Furthermore, AI may open new possibilities for prediction markets, allowing them to analyze data automatically, place orders, and even generate new markets. This could make prediction markets respond faster and smarter, gradually evolving into a tool for assessing risks and trends, rather than just a place for betting.

The last area not to be overlooked is the development of on-chain U.S. stocks.

In simple terms, the crypto industry is not only trading crypto assets but is also beginning to bring real-world assets onto the chain. For example, Securitize plans to launch the first fully compliant on-chain stock trading platform in 2026, where tokens purchased on-chain correspond to real company stocks, granting voting rights and dividends.

IV. Emergent Narratives: New Directions That May Take Off in 2026

At the same time, there are several seemingly marginal directions worth paying attention to, with the following content referenced from the article “a16z: 17 Structural Changes in the Crypto Industry.”

https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/

Image Source: a16z

1. The Identity Issue of AI Agents

As AI entities begin to participate in trading, browsing, placing orders, and even interacting with smart contracts, a key question arises: how do these non-human identities prove "who they are"?

The "Know Your Agent" (KYA) concept proposed by a16z aims to address this issue. On-chain, any agent initiating a transaction must have clear permissions and ownership, requiring cryptographic signatures for transactions. In 2026, this may become a prerequisite for the large-scale deployment of AI on-chain.

2. x402 Protocols and Micropayments

a16z predicts that as AI agents widely trade data, call computing power, and read interfaces, we will enter an era of "automatic settlement + programmed payments."

Manual payments will no longer be necessary; AI agents can recognize needs and automatically execute payments, which is precisely the real-world problem that protocols like x402 are addressing. In 2026, their presence will become increasingly prominent.

3. Increased Attention on Privacy Chains

a16z points out a key trend: compared to the convergence of performance competition, privacy will become the core moat of future public chains. In the past, concerns about privacy chains were that they hindered regulation and lacked transparency. However, the issue has reversed; business data is too sensitive, and without privacy protection, compliance institutions are reluctant to go on-chain. Consequently, chains that inherently provide privacy protection are becoming attractive. Once users adopt these chains, their data will not be easily leaked, and the cost of migration will be higher, naturally creating new user stickiness, which is essentially a network effect.

4. Staked Media

In an era where AI generates content in abundance, determining whether a statement is credible cannot rely solely on who said it, but also on whether there is a cost associated with that statement. Therefore, a16z proposes a new media model where content creators not only express opinions but also "stake" their positions through locking assets, prediction markets, and NFT credentials.

For example, if you post a bullish view on ETH, you also lock up your own ETH as collateral; if you make an election prediction, you also place a bet on-chain. These public interest bindings will ensure that content is not just talk. If this approach can be successfully implemented, it may become the new norm for on-chain media in the future.

Of course, the report by a16z proposes far more than just these few directions. This article highlights four representative trends, while other directions are equally worth noting, such as: upgrades in stablecoin inflows and outflows, RWA crypto nativeization, stablecoins driving upgrades in banking ledger systems, diversification in wealth management, the rise of AI research assistants, real-time content profit-sharing mechanisms for AI agents, decentralized quantum-resistant communication, "privacy as a service" becoming infrastructure, shifts in DeFi security paradigms, intelligent prediction markets, verifiable cloud computing, emphasis on product-market fit (PMF), and crypto legislation unlocking more potential for blockchain.

Interested readers can refer to the original a16z report for further in-depth understanding.

V. The Crypto Industry is Moving Out of Its Internal Cycle

The early growth of the crypto industry was largely built on a self-sustaining system, where token issuance, commissions, and airdrops attempted to attract more insiders to stay, but this closed loop is gradually being broken by reality.

From Polymarket to USDT, and then to USDC's cross-border applications, we see more and more people who are not Web3 users utilizing blockchain tools. Street vendors in Lagos may not understand wallet structures, but they know that using USDT is much faster than bank transfers. In high-inflation countries, savers flock to USDC, not for speculation, but to hedge against risks. One of the most intuitive changes is seen in payment scenarios in developing countries, such as the partnership between the Philippine trading platform Coins.ph and Circle, which has opened low-cost USDC remittance channels.

The trend behind this indicates that crypto technology is embedding itself into real scenarios like cross-border payments and remittance channels. The true future of crypto may lie in how to use technology to solve real problems, allowing more ordinary people to unconsciously use blockchain.

VI. The Crypto Industry from the KOL Perspective

The recent discussion on "whether spending years in the crypto industry is worth it" essentially serves as a collective review of the industry.

Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, continued the reflection on "whether eight years have been wasted in crypto," candidly stating that only Bitcoin, stablecoins, DEXs, and prediction markets have truly achieved significant PMF (product-market fit) to date. He chooses to maintain a pragmatic idealism, accepting that bubbles and fervor are part of the path, not the entirety.

Haseeb, a partner at Dragonfly, was more straightforward, pointing out that the issue is not the existence of casinos, but that focusing solely on the glitz of casinos can lead to missing the true transformations in the industry. He believes that cryptocurrencies are a better vehicle for finance and will forever change the nature of money, urging the industry to remain patient: "The industrial revolution took 50 years to change productivity; we are only 15 years in."

The summary from @DeFiTeddy2020, founder of XHunt & Biteye, was also very realistic. In his view, the crypto industry can quickly expose the essence of finance, facing project failures, price disconnection from fundamentals, and even insider trading, manipulation, and harvesting. It is not a breeding ground for idealism but a market that continuously educates participants with real money, honing their mental resilience.

Regarding the future development direction of the industry, KOL @xincctnnq provided a long-term perspective, stating that what crypto is truly trying to solve are long-term issues such as monetary systems, contract execution, digital property rights, capital market efficiency, and financial inclusivity. Even if the results are distant and the process rough, it is worth continuous attempts.

Additionally, trader and analyst @CryptoPainter offered a more market-structure-oriented explanation, noting that the crypto market repeats its usual operating mechanism: "value investing" - "belief investing" - "emotional speculation" - "complete disappointment," and then starts over. This cycle has appeared in 2018 and 2022 and is destined to return. Gamblers and casinos are not anomalies but part of the consumption of bubbles and the market's self-regulation.

DougieDeLuca @DougieDeLuca, a member of Figment Capital, provided a stage summary, stating that "Crypto is dead" does not mean prices have gone to zero or blocks have stopped operating, but rather that "Crypto as a closed industry form is dying." True success should be integrating crypto technology into the daily lives of ordinary people.

From a more institutional perspective, KOL and researcher @lanhubiji mentioned that as old users begin to withdraw, newcomers with traditional financial backgrounds are entering the market. In their view, crypto is a long-term trend that has already entered a path of standardization, interoperability, and scalability. Three years from now, a brand new era of on-chain finance, the on-chain Wall Street era, will gradually emerge.

LD Capital founder @Jackyi_ld's judgment is more aligned with the current cycle, pointing out that the recent downturn in crypto is more a phase of resonance between liquidity and macro events. Currently, the negative factors are gradually being digested, and with the dual benefits of interest rate cuts and crypto policies, he remains optimistic about the subsequent market.

On a more macro level regarding regulation and industry structure, Hashkey Group Chairman Xiao Feng's judgment is particularly systematic. He proposed three major trends for the future:

First, the global trend of crypto regulation is shifting from "voluntary acceptance" to "mandatory regulation," with governments gradually clearing offshore gray areas and crypto trading moving towards licensing. For example, in Hong Kong, starting from June 2023, all unlicensed trading platforms must exit the market.

Second, crypto is no longer just native assets like BTC and ETH; more traditional financial assets are migrating onto the chain in tokenized forms, forming a new type of securitized market that is compliant with regulations.

Third, moving from "off-chain" to "on-chain," he predicts that the second half of 2026 may be a key node for the emergence of the "on-chain Wall Street" prototype.

VII. Conclusion

Will crypto be better in 2026?

If the expectation is for "prices to soar," the answer may be uncertain.

But if the question is whether the industry is moving towards a more real and useful direction, the answer may be affirmative.

From crypto ETFs to stablecoin payments, from on-chain government bonds to prediction markets, from on-chain agents to decentralized AI, all these indicate one thing:

The crypto industry may be starting to land in a more realistic world and may increasingly resemble a twin financial system that runs parallel to the real-world financial system, resonating with the stock market, macro liquidity, policy expectations, and even AI cycles.

This article is from a submission and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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