Crypto Circle News
December 22 Hot Topics:
1. North Korean hackers stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency in 2025, setting a new historical record.
2. IOSG: The first half of 2026 is worth focusing on under a relatively friendly policy background.
3. Hassett: Trump is seeking data-driven candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position.
4. The three worst-performing sectors in 2025 are DeFAI, Modular, and DeSci.
5. Cathie Wood: 2026 is expected to be a "golden year," with inflation at 0%.
Trading Insights
Trading Insights — Don't rely on luck! Good risk control allows you to seize opportunities when the market comes. Everyone has their lucky moments in trading; although I have been lucky a few times recently, never blindly trust anyone — including me. The essence of trading is having both right and wrong; since mistakes are inevitable, what we can do is think ahead: what if we are wrong? The answer is simple: implement good risk control. Risk control is not about winning every time, but about ensuring that when mistakes happen, you won't "bleed excessively." As long as your principal is intact, when a big market movement truly arrives, you will have the ability to seize it. Otherwise, if you lose too much of your principal, you can only watch when opportunities arise, missing out in vain. Don't wait until "old age brings tears of regret"; start now by clearly defining your stop-loss for each trade and managing your positions diligently. Steady and solid.
LIFE IS LIKE
A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real trading signals from the Big White Community this week. Congratulations to the friends who followed along; if your trades are not going well, you can come and test the waters.
The data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from when it was issued.
**Search for the public account: *Big White Talks About Coins*
Bilibili and YouTube account: Daquan777
BTC
Analysis
Starting next week, we will enter the Christmas market, referred to in the English-speaking world as the "Santa Claus Rally," which refers to the performance of the S&P 500 during the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the following year. Historically, there is a 79% chance that the Christmas rally will be upward, with the highest increase during this week being 7.4% and the highest decrease being 4.2%. The average increase is around 1.3%.
From historical experience, the Christmas rally is not just a simple seasonal statistical phenomenon but more like a barometer of market risk appetite. If the market can rise as expected from Christmas to New Year, it usually indicates that investors are still willing to allocate risk assets despite a lack of new macro stimuli, confirming risk appetite at the end of the year and laying the emotional foundation for asset pricing in the new year. Conversely, if the market does not rise, it often means that risk appetite has not recovered, making the market more prone to weakness or repeated fluctuations in January and beyond. A pullback to around 88450-88160 can be a buying opportunity, with a rebound target of around 89500-90350.
ETH
Analysis
From an institutional and seasonal perspective, on one hand, after the tax-loss harvesting completed in mid-December, funds should start to flow back into the market. On the other hand, during the holiday period, institutional trading activity decreases, and trading volume drops, allowing a small amount of buying to push the index upward while lowering short-term volatility. Additionally, year-end bonuses and automatic deductions for pensions (like 401k) may provide passive buying support for the market.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate finally dropped over the weekend, indicating that the actual trading volume from real users is indeed quite low. The usual high turnover rate is likely due to changes from quantitative or high-frequency short-term investors, while the weekend reflects the changes of actual holders. However, as we enter the Christmas market next week, overall trading volume and turnover rate are expected to decline.
This Christmas market essentially sets the expectations for the first quarter of 2026. If, under favorable seasonal conditions, emotional vacuum, and gradually recovering liquidity, the market still fails to form an effective upward trend, it likely indicates that the current high-interest-rate environment's suppression of the economy has outweighed the emotional boost from the holiday factors. A pullback to around 3003-2977 can be a buying opportunity, with a rebound target of around 3050-3098.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article may have some lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
