Despite Bitcoin's gloomy price action and poor on-chain metrics, VanEck argues for cautious optimism because miners are capitulating. 

The Bitcoin network's "hash rate", the total computing power securing the network, dropped by 4% over the last 30 days. This is the sharpest decline since April 2024.

The "breakeven price" for a standard mining rig (the S19 XP) is $0.077 per kWh. However, Bitcoin’s price dropped, and mining difficulty increased. Hence, this is causing an exodus of miners. Desperate industry participants who were selling every Bitcoin they mined just to pay bills are now offline.

The report notes that Xinjiang-based Chinese miners in shut down roughly 1.3 GW of capacity.  

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Historically, when the 90-day hash rate growth is negative, the probability of Bitcoin's price rising over the next 6 months increases to 77%

Institutional divergence 

The report notes that corporations are aggressively "buying the dip." They added 42,000 BTC in the last month (the most since July 2025). As reported by U.Today, Saylor's Strategy recently announced 

Conversely, investors in Bitcoin ETFs/ETPs are retreating, with holdings dropping by roughly 120 basis points. 

Long-term corporate treasuries are accumulating Bitcoin while arguably more fickle ETP investors are selling.

The selling pressure is coming from cyclical players who entered in the last few years, not from the "OG" Bitcoin believers.

At the same time, speculation has cooled off. Perpetual future basis rates dropped to 5% (below the yearly average of 7.4%).

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