This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuances; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—these may not necessarily be direct wealth codes, but could simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from interactions with industry practitioners; and those materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members, does not accept any form of commercial advertising, and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement information sources, rather than to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, X official account) to exchange ideas, question, and joke around.
Nan Zhi (X: @Assassin_Malvo)
Introduction: The Meme diamond hands, after suffering heavy losses, are starting anew.
Content:
- Still focused on predicting the market, Polymarket has shown no growth for two weeks;
- The Nan Zhi version of smart money vs. strong social media AI is now online (https://www.omnioracle.fun/human-vs-ai-table), Grok has demonstrated strong predictive capabilities with an accuracy rate of 85%—hitting 11 out of 13 questions;
- In fact, the accuracy rate of human smart money is also not low (77%), but the final net value curve is still in a drawdown, indicating that there is some issue with the way funds are placed, still exploring;
- Created an Opinion & Polymarket arbitrage dashboard (https://www.omnioracle.fun/opinion-arbitrage), found that Opinion has 99% bots, and the top 20 trading volume questions are basically topics that other prediction markets ignore, suspected to be for volume manipulation.
Ark
Introduction: Recently, there has been a high consumption scenario, slightly increasing the desire to make money.
Content: Let's talk about Hong Kong Web3.
Last Wednesday, I went to HashKey's listing day (the 7th time this year running in HK). I intended to find a BTC ATM in Central to provide video material for a colleague, but was led on a wild goose chase by outdated information from Google Maps and Xiaohongshu. This has led to increasing doubts about this existence. BTC + ATM, just listen to these two words, do they even go together? It's like fish leaving a bicycle, the Northeast losing Jerusalem. The value carriers that humanity has painstakingly evolved into virtualization and product service mobility are all regressing.
I chatted with local friends about their preferences for buying coins—brokerages are optimal in terms of convenience and security; the compliance CEX has high account opening thresholds and significant operational wear (traditional financial services in Hong Kong are the same), so they are used less; exchange shops and other OTC channels have been squeezed out by compliance, high risk, and poor pricing (even worse than the bilateral spreads of foreign exchange services). Moreover, apart from a very small number of "qualified investors" and professional investors, BTC and ETH are basically not considered (the so-called preference for investing in Central rather than Cyberport); leverage is not much engaged (the gambling nature and internetization of the C-end are still far behind other Asian markets); operations beyond spot trading, such as on-chain interactions and prediction markets, are basically nonexistent.
Other industry friends have quite a few complaints about the compliance situation in Hong Kong, from user experience to talent recruitment to internal work environment and external relations. The few things that can be highlighted are surprisingly customer service, which is quite professional in answering queries.
As for policies, there is often a lot of noise but little action. After all, implementation requires people, but the supply and demand for "high talents" in Hong Kong are saturated and overflowing, and the local positions available are being self-consumed; considering the practicalities of living in Hong Kong, most are "for the children" > personal growth, with educational arbitrage being the biggest motivation for coming to Hong Kong.
Overall feeling, it's difficult, and I have yet to see a trigger for the start of Hong Kong Web3.
p.s. Please stop calling prediction markets collective wisdom in various research reports; throughout all eras experienced by humanity, the collective is not wise, but rather a more efficient and reflexive financial behavior.
Azuma (X: @azuma_eth)
Introduction: Learning a lot, still a novice.
Content: This week, I am mainly looking at two things: one is the prediction market that currently seems to have the most wealth effect, and the other is the evolution of the controversy surrounding the Aave incident.
First, regarding the prediction market, various second and third-tier new platforms are continuously emerging, but to be honest, I am not very optimistic, primarily due to the construction of liquidity. The market-making methods of prediction markets are completely different from DEX and Perp DEX, due to the different nature of assets (yes, no, one side always goes to zero), different price fluctuation methods (instant extreme fluctuations), and different trading counterparts (all insiders), market makers are naturally at a disadvantage, and retail investors entering the market to make markets are essentially giving away money.
Previously, reports indicated that Polymarket and Kalshi had poured tens of millions of dollars into liquidity incentives. This is the core advantage of these established leaders that have already captured user mindshare and completed massive financing; how many bullets do new platforms have to compete with them? While some new platforms may have strong backing, it is clear that not every one of them does.
Revisiting the thought process, I will write a detailed article on this topic later.
Then there is the controversy between Aave Labs and the DAO. The current situation is somewhat awkward; Labs likely has few coins left after all these years and wants more revenue paths, so their attitude is quite strong; the DAO side does not want to bleed but cannot push Labs too hard, as they still need them to do the work. Originally, it was just a quarrel in their own backyard, but now it has escalated to the village committee, and neighbors are chiming in for various reasons; if no one steps back, it won't end well. The voting results will come out in the next couple of days, and we will see how it develops.
Moni (X: @mich73692)
Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving.
Content: At the beginning of this week, Bitcoin's "dead cat bounce" briefly broke through $90,000, but the upward trend could not be sustained, and the price quickly fell again. During the market downturn in November, investors bought about 976,000 Bitcoins between $84,000 and $85,600, so the recent key support level may be at $84,000. Personally, I judge that Bitcoin (or the entire crypto market) will remain sluggish for most of 2026, until the end of 2026, because in November next year, Trump will have midterm elections, and he may take some measures to boost the market for support.
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about prediction markets, and many analytical articles have been published, so I won't elaborate. Just a brief overview of some hot prediction events in 2026: World Cup, Super Bowl, NBA All-Star, Dota2, Asian Games, Winter Olympics, Federal Reserve Chair. Finally, I wish everyone a Merry Christmas in advance and send a benefit: the Epstein case photos on the U.S. Department of Justice's official website are all public, with more information than what the media has disclosed, and they support downloads, but do not spread them, not even to good friends (Odaily note: Starting January 1 next year, sending obscene messages to friends will be illegal).
Golem (X: @web3_golem):
Introduction: Golem's whimsical ideas.
Content: Recently, I have a whimsical idea on how to play Polymarket, and I hope to discuss it with everyone.
Although Polymarket can predict the truth to some extent, when any event just happens, the human brain has already quickly analyzed the event and made judgments on the probabilities of various outcomes, while Polymarket does not have such reaction speed, due to factors including the time it takes to create and review a new prediction event, the group reaction time, and operational delays.
This results in a situation where, for a period, the probability of an event outcome on Polymarket is lower than the group's judgment probability, which I call the pricing error phase.
To illustrate, suppose the event is predicting "the highest revenue internet company listed in the U.S. stock market in 2025," and the result judgment is based on the financial reports of listed companies. The results may include dozens of companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, etc., but it is clear that the ultimate winner will likely be among Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, or Microsoft; we can know without looking at the data that their probabilities will be higher than those of other companies. As long as we place bets on these companies during the pricing error phase when this prediction goes live on Polymarket and sell when the pricing is correct, we can profit without waiting for the final result to appear.
From the above explanation, I believe everyone can see that the key to this play is timely monitoring and trading speed, which still seems to be profitable at the moment.
Wenser (@wenser2010)
Introduction: Tea server, crypto soy sauce party, media observer.
Content: 1. Continuing from the last mention of "crypto traders reverse harvesting the stock market," the recent hacking of Kuaishou's live stream is a very typical case. If someone in the crypto circle who follows the internet industry could completely use the "News Trading" approach to short Kuaishou's U.S. stock on MSX.com and xStocks with high leverage. For example, similar to when a crypto project has a technical vulnerability, the website front end or even the Swap function gets hacked, and then you short the corresponding project token; I personally think that the emergence of stock tokenization is actually beneficial for crypto people, rather than the view previously expressed by Alliance DAO founder Qwqiao that the stock market dimensions are higher than cryptocurrencies; I recommend reading “Crypto-Stock Barometer”.
The prediction market has become another hot spot, but the bulk of liquidity still lies with Polymarket (Kalshi's KYC has affected user scale expansion, so its valuation is slightly lower than PM), similar to the past L1, L2, GameFi, NFT, and AI concepts. However, unlike before, betting events for crypto projects on Polymarket have gradually become a way and means for project parties or market makers to hedge risks, and retail investors can either join in or stay away.
Strategy is gradually entering the hitting zone; if you are not playing U.S. stocks, you can buy some low-leverage long positions on MSX.com. For those who have never played stock tokenization, you can use my link (https://msx.com/?code=Wszm85), and I recommend reading: “Is MSTR Bottoming Out or Waiting?”.
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