Written by: DaiDai, MSX MaiDian

Reducing holdings in over $2 billion of tech giants, completely exiting gold and emerging market exposure, and instead increasing positions in the U.S. large-cap and selected tech stocks.

I. New Macroeconomic Paradigm: Investment Logic in an Era of Uncertainty

1. Introduction: Navigating an Unpredictable Future

The global macroeconomy is undergoing a profound structural transformation. Bob Prince, Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates, points out that two core driving forces—the acceleration of "modern mercantilism" and the "artificial intelligence revolution"—are reshaping the market landscape. The interaction of these two paradigm shifts has created a new environment filled with "unpredictable tail events." This backdrop poses severe challenges to traditional investment strategies and makes it imperative to strategically adjust portfolios to adapt to the future.

2. Analysis of Core Driving Forces

Based on Bob Prince's discussion, the characteristics and impacts of the two macro forces are as follows:

(1) Acceleration of Modern Mercantilism

The core feature of "modern mercantilism" is that governments are playing an increasingly important role in enhancing national wealth and power, prioritizing self-sufficiency and industrial policy. This trend has led to a growing complexity in the global geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, where interactions between countries are no longer limited to economic aspects but also include more strategic considerations.

(2) Exponential Demand from the Artificial Intelligence Revolution

The development of artificial intelligence technology faces a core contradiction: marginal improvements in performance require "exponential growth" in computing power and capital investment. This dynamic not only creates unprecedented demand for related industries such as semiconductors, software, and energy but also means that significant capital expenditures will become a key variable driving market growth and differentiation.

3. Bridgewater's Response Principles

In the face of this uncertain macro new paradigm, Prince distilled three core response principles from Bridgewater, which form the foundation of its current investment decisions:

(1) Diversification

In a market where holdings, especially in the U.S. stock market, have reached historically high levels of concentration, diversification is the only reliable response to unpredictability. The goal is to ensure that regardless of what unforeseen events occur in the future, the investment portfolio will not suffer significant damage.

(2) Agility

As unknown macro factors gradually become known, investment strategies must be able to adapt and adjust quickly. Agility means proactively responding to newly emerging information and changes in patterns rather than clinging to old judgments.

(3) Healthy Degree of Paranoia

In a market filled with uncertainty, it is crucial to remain vigilant and avoid overconfidence. This means maintaining a healthy skepticism towards the general expectations of the market, especially those seemingly optimistic linear extrapolations.

Based on this judgment of the macro new paradigm, Bridgewater has made profound strategic adjustments to its investment portfolio to better navigate future risks and opportunities.

II. Portfolio Shift: Detailed Explanation of Strategic Turn in Q3 2025

1. Introduction: Strategic Intent from Data

The 13F filing for Q3 2025 (as of September 30, 2025) reveals a decisive portfolio rotation by Bridgewater. The data shows that Bridgewater is shifting from a defensive posture over the past few years to a more aggressive "seeking return posture."

2. Significant Reductions and Exits: Avoiding Concentration Risk

According to data from Gainify, Moomoo, and Fintel, Bridgewater executed large-scale reductions and exits in Q3 to lower portfolio concentration risk.

(1) Substantial Reductions in "Tech Giants"

Bridgewater significantly reduced its exposure to certain tech giants, removing over $2 billion in aggregate positions, primarily targeting:

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Reduced by 65.28%, selling approximately 4.64 million shares, with end-of-period holdings dropping to about 2.47 million shares, and the market value falling to about $298 million. (Note: This was one of the largest single reductions of the quarter, reflecting concerns about the short-term congestion in chip stocks.)
• Microsoft (MSFT): Reduced by 36.03%, selling approximately 330,000 shares, with end-of-period holdings dropping to about 586,000 shares, and the market value falling to about $252 million.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Reduced by 52.61%, selling approximately 2.32 million shares, with end-of-period holdings dropping to about 2.09 million shares, and the market value falling to about $346 million.
• Meta Platforms (META): Reduced by 48.34%, selling approximately 310,000 shares, with end-of-period holdings dropping to about 330,000 shares, and the market value falling to about $189 million.

This operation indicates that after significant increases and notable valuation rises among tech giants, Bridgewater chose to actively reduce concentration in crowded trades.

(2) Complete Exit from "Gold" and "Emerging Markets"

The most striking operation was Bridgewater's complete exit from its SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) position, marking its abandonment of traditional macro hedging tools. Simultaneously, the fund nearly completely exited emerging markets, reducing its iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) holdings by 93%. This series of operations sends a strong signal: capital is withdrawing from defensive and highly uncertain areas, shifting towards markets with clearer fundamentals.

3. Core Increases and New Positions: Increasing Exposure to U.S. Market Breadth and Selected Tech Value Chain

While significantly reducing holdings, Bridgewater redeployed funds into the U.S. market and specific tech sectors, reflecting an optimistic assessment of their risk-return profile.

(1) Increasing U.S. Large-Cap Index ETF

Bridgewater invested a substantial amount of new capital into the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), significantly increasing its weight.

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV): Increased by approximately 1.74 million shares (an increase of +75%), with end-of-period holdings totaling 4.05 million shares, and a market value of about $2.71 billion.

Note: IVV and SPY have become structural pillars of its portfolio, and this injection of over $1.1 billion reflects a renewed emphasis on the breadth of the U.S. market.

(2) Strategic Positioning in Specific Tech Sectors

Unlike the reductions in overvalued tech giants, Bridgewater significantly increased or established new positions in a number of tech companies with clear long-term fundamentals and relatively reasonable valuations, primarily focused on software, payments, and semiconductor supply chains:

• Lam Research (LRCX): Increased by approximately 1.83 million shares (an increase of +111%, doubling its position), with end-of-period holdings of about 3.46 million shares, and a market value of about $464 million.
• Adobe (ADBE): Increased by approximately 533,000 shares (an increase of +73%), with end-of-period holdings of about 1.26 million shares, and a market value of about $445 million.
• Workday (WDAY): Increased by +132%, with end-of-period holdings of about 1.04 million shares, and a market value of about $251 million.
• Mastercard (MA): Increased by +190%, with end-of-period holdings of about 366,000 shares, and a market value of about $208 million.

This indicates that Bridgewater has not abandoned tech stocks but has shifted capital from emotionally driven consumer giants to semiconductor equipment and enterprise software companies that play the role of "selling shovels" in the AI revolution.

(3) Attention to Newly Listed Companies

Bridgewater also established new positions in recently listed platform companies, demonstrating its ongoing exploration of new growth points:

• Reddit (RDDT): New Position, purchasing approximately 617,000 shares, with a market value of about $142 million.
• Robinhood (HOOD): New Position, purchasing approximately 808,000 shares, with a market value of about $98 million.

III. Interpreting the Gold Mystery: The Game of Long-Term Belief and Tactical Adjustment

1. Introduction: Behind the Seemingly Contradictory Decision

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has long been a staunch supporter of gold. However, in Q3 2025, Bridgewater completely exited its gold ETF positions. This "seemingly contradictory" decision is not a denial of long-term beliefs but more likely a tactical adjustment based on the current environment.

2. Dalio's Philosophy on Gold

Based on information from TradingKey and Motley Fool, Dalio's investment philosophy regarding gold is rooted in his understanding of macro cycles.

(1) Ultimate Safe-Haven Asset

Dalio believes that gold is a key hedging tool against currency devaluation and declining institutional trust, being the only asset that does not rely on any counterparty's commitment.

(2) Strategic Allocation Recommendations

He has suggested at the Greenwich Economic Forum that during periods of increased market pressure, the allocation to gold should be raised to 10%-15%, stating that zero or low allocation to gold is a "strategic mistake."

3. Logical Deduction of Tactical Exit

Combining analysis from Gainify, the logic behind Bridgewater's exit from gold can be understood through its shift in risk preference.

(1) Shift in Risk Preference

The removal of gold exposure marks Bridgewater's transition from a defensive value storage tool to a more aggressive equity deployment.

(2) Marginal Changes in Hedging Value

In the current environment, Bridgewater may believe that the hedging value of zero-yield gold is no longer sufficient to cover opportunity costs, while the U.S. stock market and selected tech sectors offer a better risk-return profile.

IV. Looking Ahead: Seeking Balance Amid Uncertainty

1. Introduction: A New Balance in the New Macroeconomic Paradigm

Bridgewater's strategy for 2025 is not simply bullish or bearish but aims to adapt to macro turning points by constructing a more resilient portfolio while acknowledging unpredictability.

2. Internal Logic of the Strategy

(1) Replacing Traditional Hedging with Breadth

Increasing holdings in the S&P 500 ETF is not only a positive outlook on the U.S. market but also a means of diversifying risk through market breadth instead of a single asset (like gold).

(2) Maintaining Agility Amid Change

Bridgewater has chosen tech targets with clearer fundamentals and more reasonable valuations in the AI wave to respond to the dynamic process of "the unknown becoming known."

(3) Upholding the "All Weather" Philosophy

The current adjustments are a dynamic practice of Bridgewater's "All Weather" philosophy under the new macro paradigm, aiming to maintain portfolio balance across different scenarios rather than sacrificing upside potential for single defense.

In summary, Bridgewater's investment strategy for 2025 represents a proactive evolution: abandoning old balance anchors amid uncertainty and instead building new portfolio resilience through broader diversification and more precise agility.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference and educational purposes only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice.

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