Yesterday, I wrote two tweets, one about the macro cycle & altcoin season, and the other about my view that 2026 is just a transition period. Today, I will combine these two tweets to discuss.

As a trend investor, which is often referred to as a macro cycle investor, the first thing to do is "not to go against the trend." This is also why many friends did not lose money in altcoins during this cycle, because they did not buy any altcoins. The reason for not buying is that during a monetary tightening cycle, one should avoid "high-risk" activities.

Cryptocurrencies are inherently high-risk and highly volatile assets compared to U.S. stocks. Among cryptocurrencies, only a few mainstream coins like $BTC have strong consensus and capital inflow, while the vast majority of tokens are essentially worthless. U.S. stocks at least have earnings reports; even during a tightening cycle, if the earnings reports are excellent, there is still a chance for price increases. One could say that earnings reports are the most direct barometer for U.S. stocks.

However, cryptocurrencies not only lack earnings reports, but the transparency of projects is also questionable. TVL might be borrowed, APR could be fake (inflating returns with their own tokens), protocols may be centralized, and users might just be there for airdrops, which neither truly promotes the development of cryptocurrencies nor proves their commercial value.

Even for the few protocols that genuinely make money, they hesitate to tie profits to token value for fear of being classified as "security tokens." Thus, cryptocurrencies rely on FOMO. Consensus is also a form of FOMO, and the essence of generating consensus and FOMO lies in political, economic, and technological stimuli.

The political stimulus in 2025 includes Trump's favorable stance on cryptocurrencies and the leniency of the SEC and CFTC towards them. The economic stimulus comes from certain tokens passing spot ETFs or forming DATs (strategic reserves) with listed companies. The technological stimulus involves the combination of AI and cryptocurrencies. Theoretically, the convergence of these three should lead to a wave of upward trends, but unfortunately, the major premise is not met, which is monetary policy.

If even U.S. stocks do not have enough money, how much can flow into cryptocurrencies, and how much can enter altcoins? Not to mention the three types of stimuli mentioned earlier; the policy stimulus is primarily directed at Bitcoin, the economic stimulus mainly benefits Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the AI stimulus is still somewhat forced. Therefore, the spring for altcoins is hard to come by.

Will there be an altcoin season?

I believe there will be, but probably not now. At most, there might be a wave in the second half of 2026. This wave will mainly occur under non-recession conditions, with the new Federal Reserve Chair leading Trump's loyal Federal Reserve members to shift interest rates from tightening to easing, such as increasing the frequency and intensity of rate cuts, and clearly signaling a dovish stance at press conferences. Additionally, the Republican Party will make efforts and promises for the midterm elections. The combination of these three factors should be able to trigger a small climax.

However, this climax does not necessarily mean breaking new highs. I think there will be an increase, but whether it’s from 70,000 to 100,000, or from 90,000 to 120,000, or from 100,000 to 150,000, it’s still an increase. The increase is a result, but the price before the increase is hard to determine. Before May 2026, or in the first quarter of 2026, it may also be quite challenging.

As for the real climax period, I believe it will still be in 2028. The election cycle in 2028 may truly enter a state of easing. Personally, all my current actions are to prepare for 2028, while 2026 may be an opportunity for reallocation.

This is just my personal view, and my perspective may not be correct.

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