In recent days, I've been observing Polymarket NBA ingame (live betting), which refers to the changes in odds during the match.

The results are quite astonishing. On Polymarket, there has been ample liquidity in the odds until the very last second of the NBA game, with the bid-ask spread remaining stable at around 1% most of the time.

This corresponds to a 99% payout rate.

This is incredibly scary; it's important to note that this is live betting, which corresponds to significant volatility and uncertainty. Such a high payout rate means that the market makers for NBA games on Polymarket either have ample funds and are not afraid of losses, or they have extremely high confidence in the accuracy of their pricing.

In comparison to traditional giants, Bet365 has a payout rate of around 95%, and the widely recognized sharpest bookmaker, Pinnacle, has a payout rate of 96-98%. Polymarket has directly achieved 99%, and this value remains stable for the vast majority of in-play time.

What does this mean? Those who understand should have already figured it out.

Additionally, does anyone know who the market makers for NBA games on Polymarket are? They are incredibly impressive; it feels like unless the official side is participating, there’s no reason for anyone to adopt such an aggressive market-making strategy.

Polymarket #NBA #Betting

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