Welcome to the Qinglan Crypto Classroom. Today, we will analyze BTC across four timeframes, including the news aspect:

Let's look at each timeframe one by one. On the 15-minute chart, after the big bullish candle at 22:45 last night (12/30) pushed the price above 89000, it has been oscillating downwards and is now hovering around 88400. Looking at the MACD, the fast and slow lines crossed downwards above the zero line and are moving down, with the histogram getting longer below the zero line, indicating a significant exhaustion of short-term upward momentum and a counterattack from bears. The RSI has also dropped from the overbought area (77) back to around 50, indicating a weak oscillating pattern in the short term. The key support level is at 88000; if broken, it may drop to 87500. The resistance above is in the 88800-89000 range, and last night's high is not easily surpassed.

Now looking at the 1-hour chart, the pattern is clearer. The surge that started from around 87200 yesterday afternoon went directly to 89000, but then formed a "high-level consolidation + slow decline." On the moving averages, the price has fallen below the MA5 and MA10 and is testing the support of MA20 (around 88200). Although the fast and slow lines of the 1-hour MACD are still above the zero line, they have flattened out, and after a reduction, the red histogram shows signs of expanding again, indicating a potential top divergence, suggesting issues with the sustainability of the rise. Therefore, on the 1-hour level, the trend has shifted from an upward movement to a high-level oscillation, with a direction choice imminent.

Expanding the timeframe to the 4-hour chart, the story becomes more complete. The massive bullish candle on December 29 surged from 87500 to 90100, but was immediately followed by a bearish candle with a long upper shadow, forming a typical "shooting star" bearish pattern. The price has since oscillated within the body of this bullish candle. Currently, the fast and slow lines of the 4-hour MACD are in a golden cross above the zero line, but the slope is very flat, and the histogram is weak, indicating a consolidation after a weak rebound. Therefore, in the medium term, this is a consolidation after a strong rebound facing resistance, with strong resistance in the previous high 90100-90400 area and strong support at 87500-87800, the previous rising platform.

Finally, looking at the daily chart, this determines the long-term direction. Since the sharp drop in early November, Bitcoin has been oscillating and building a bottom within a large descending channel. Recently, the price has risen above the MA5 and MA10 but is firmly held down by the MA20 (around 90000). The green histogram of the daily MACD continues to shorten, and the fast and slow lines show signs of a golden cross in deep water, but have not yet crossed above the zero line, indicating that the momentum of the long-term decline has weakened, but the momentum for reversal is still far from sufficient. Therefore, the long-term trend can only be defined as oscillation at the end of a downtrend, and it is still too early to talk about a reversal.

In terms of news, there is a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments, but the bearish sentiment is stronger. On the bullish side, there are Bitwise applying for 11 new cryptocurrency ETFs and Pakistan potentially becoming a crypto leader, which are long-term narratives. However, the bearish and uncertain factors are more eye-catching: 1) There is a huge divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with meeting minutes showing that some officials are very cautious, and the space for rate cuts next year may be very limited, which suppresses risk assets. 2) The year-end effect is evident, with Tom Lee pointing out that institutional exits, algorithmic trading, and tax-related sell-offs are putting pressure on the market, explaining why the rebound is weak. 3) There are divergences in industrial capital, with large transfers into ENA from wallets associated with Arthur Hayes, and Prenetics abandoning its BTC increase, indicating that large funds are also adjusting their positions or waiting. 4) Technical analysis articles (Qinglan BTC analysis) directly point out "technical rebounds facing resistance, bulls and bears wrestling at year-end," which aligns with our technical judgment.

In summary, the market is currently in a very tangled position. Short-term momentum is insufficient, mid-term is facing resistance, and long-term is still seeking a bottom. The hesitation of the Federal Reserve and the lack of liquidity at year-end make bulls hesitant to act.

• For short-term traders: It is recommended to buy low and sell high within the 87500-89000 range. If approaching the 89000 resistance level and showing signs of stagnation (such as a 15-minute RSI top divergence), consider lightly shorting, with a stop loss above 89500; if it stabilizes after a pullback to the 87500-87800 support zone, consider lightly going long, with a stop loss below 87200. The current price (around 88400) is at the mid-range of the interval, making it unsuitable for trading; it is best to observe.

• For medium to long-term investors: This is definitely not the time to heavily bottom-fish. A clear signal for a trend reversal at the daily level is needed, such as a strong breakout above 90000 with volume. Patience is required to wait for two opportunities: one is to retest the 87500 support or even lower and form a double bottom structure; the other is a strong breakout above the previous high of 90500 with volume. Before that, maintaining a light position or observing is the best strategy.

Finally, Qinglan Sister summarizes: The market always moves forward in hesitation and ends in revelry. On the last day of the year, both bulls and bears are reluctant to fight, so we should maintain a calm mindset. Remember an old saying: "Those who can buy are apprentices, those who can sell are masters, and those who can stay in cash are the ancestors." In a directionless oscillating market, preserving capital and waiting for your clear signal is more important than anything else.

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