Recently, after the latest FOMC meeting minutes were released by the Federal Reserve, a new round of pricing games in the global macro and crypto markets was triggered. The overall tone of the minutes was more dovish than before, revealing that "most officials expect more rate cuts," but concerns about inflation stickiness and political uncertainty remain, significantly compressing the market's imagination of "rapid and substantial easing." Against the backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating at high levels and traditional asset volatility converging at year-end, this minutes, along with subsequent official speeches, options, and fund flow data, collectively outline a "nominally dovish but behaviorally cautious" macro environment, becoming a key anchor point for position adjustments and sentiment rebalancing in the crypto market at year-end.
Dovish Signals and Implied Constraints from the Minutes
● News-driven: In this FOMC meeting minutes, most officials agree that inflation will continue to fall back to the 2% target, but the pace is "not linear," and there are still risks of periodic reversals.
● Path expectations: The minutes and subsequent official statements show:
● "Most officials expect further rate cuts at an appropriate time in the future," but there is limited willingness for a one-time substantial rate cut;
● Some officials emphasize that if inflation progress stagnates, the necessity of "extending the duration of high rates" cannot be ruled out.
● Risk balance:
● The shift from a previous "one-way anti-inflation" stance to a "roughly balanced growth and inflation risk" statement opens up more space for rate cuts;
● However, the minutes specifically mention political and fiscal uncertainty, including tariffs, elections, and congressional budget battles, which may amplify both inflation and growth volatility.
● Market pricing: After the release of the minutes, the implied path of interest rate futures shows:
● A slight upward adjustment in the expectation of the number of cumulative rate cuts in the coming year;
● However, there are no extreme changes in the "first cut timing" and "single cut magnitude" compared to before, reflecting the market's judgment of "dovish but not aggressive."
The information released in this minutes indicates that, directionally, the Federal Reserve acknowledges the necessity for further easing; however, in terms of pace and intensity, it will be firmly constrained by inflation stickiness, political cycles, and fiscal sustainability. This state of "willingness but lack of space" brings not a one-sided trend to asset pricing, but rather a more intense expectation rebalancing.
Divergence Among Officials, Political Pressure, and Policy Path Limits
● News-driven: The minutes and surrounding speeches show that there are substantial divergences among officials regarding the pace of rate cuts:
● The relatively dovish side emphasizes "avoiding excessive tightening that could hinder employment and growth";
● The relatively hawkish side repeatedly mentions "service sector inflation stickiness, overheated asset prices, and financial stability risks."
● Political interference:
● Recently, the debate surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve has intensified, with some officials and politicians "exchanging fire" in the media, focusing on "whether to relax policies to serve the elections";
● The Supreme Court's handling of tariff-related cases and the deadlock in Congress over fiscal deficits and debt ceilings, combined with monetary policy expectations, will significantly amplify political and policy uncertainty before and after 2026.
● Policy limits:
● Against the backdrop of high fiscal deficits and increasing pressure on government bond supply, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates too quickly, it may be interpreted by the market as "backing government financing";
● The minutes repeatedly mention the importance of financial stability and long-term inflation expectations anchoring, meaning that once signs of "irrational exuberance" in asset prices appear, the Fed will be more inclined to maintain high rates for a longer period.
In this framework, the "nominal freedom" of monetary policy and the "actual operational space" have diverged: theoretically, it can be more dovish, but in reality, it is constantly pulled by the triple constraints of inflation, politics, and finance. This situation gives any official speech or data release the potential to break the market's fragile balance.
Bitcoin Under Macro Resonance: Safe-Haven Narrative and High-Level Consolidation
● News-driven: Against the backdrop of dovish minutes and slightly easing interest rate expectations, Bitcoin has maintained a relatively high level of fluctuation, without the previous intense positive feedback surge in response to "upward revisions of rate cut expectations."
● Macro linkage:
● Recent fluctuations in gold and long-term U.S. Treasury yields have converged, indicating that the "risk premium" of traditional safe-haven assets has been partially digested;
● Bitcoin, after a previous round of significant gains, has entered a high-level consolidation and chip redistribution phase, showing decreased sensitivity to single macro signals.
● Dual identity of safe-haven and venture capital:
● In a cycle of heightened political and policy uncertainty, Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative has gained support, especially as concerns deepen over sovereign credit and long-term dilution of fiat currencies;
● However, it also possesses the attributes of a "high-volatility tech asset," strongly influenced by changes in liquidity and risk appetite—this means that the Fed dares not/cannot "flood the market", which also limits the space for unrestrained price bubbles.
● Fund structure:
● The incremental inflow from ETFs and institutional channels has already released a wave of "mechanical buying," but the recent pace has noticeably slowed;
● On-site funds are more engaged in back-and-forth games at high levels, with a reduced willingness to chase or cut based on macro news in the short term, reflected in weakened price elasticity and unclear direction.
The relationship between this macro volatility and Bitcoin resembles a "role confirmation": it is neither purely a high-beta tech stock nor has it completely transformed into a safe-haven asset that only reacts strongly to extreme risks, but rather oscillates between the two. The market needs more time to reprice this complex identity.
Options Data, Fund Flows, and Market Sentiment's "High-Level Caution" Portrait
● News-driven: The options market and large on-chain fund flows provide more sensitive emotional and expectation clues than spot prices. Recent statistics from multiple data agencies show:
● At year-end, Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) is at a relatively low level, contrasting sharply with the previous phase of significant increases;
● The proportion of put transactions has risen, with a large number of block trades concentrated in protective or neutrally bearish structures.
● Fund movements:
● On-chain observations show significant inflow and outflow behaviors from USDC Treasury addresses, but the brief did not provide precise values or hash details;
● Such operations are typically seen as a prelude to "off-market funds preparing to enter/adjust," but in the absence of more granular data, can only be interpreted as "potential liquidity on the sidelines observing."
● Structural signals:
● Low IV + increased put transaction volume means that market participants are more likely to buy protection and sell volatility to earn premiums, rather than betting on unilateral upward movements through buying call options;
● The increase in the proportion of large options block trades indicates that institutions and professional funds are enhancing their defensive awareness at high levels, focusing more on downside risk rather than chasing extreme right-tail returns.
● Sentiment sketch:
● High-level spot consolidation + increased options protection essentially reflects a consensus of "not expecting a major crash, but preparing for a significant pullback";
● The options market has not given significant premiums for extreme downturns, nor has it provided crazy quotes for explosive upward movements, with overall sentiment leaning towards "calmly pricing volatility" rather than emotional speculation.
The combined picture drawn by options and fund flow data depicts a typical "high-level caution" market: prices do not crash, emotions do not explode, positions are not light, and protections are not lacking. This state often continues until a new macro or regulatory shock breaks the suppressed structure of volatility.
Bullish vs. Bearish Perspectives: Rate Cut Hopes vs. Structural Constraints
● Optimistic/supportive side: They believe this is the starting point for medium- to long-term benefits for risk assets and the crypto market:
● The dovish minutes and clearer rate cut path make the theme of "the end of the high-rate era" a tradable topic;
● Against the backdrop of long-term depreciation of fiat currencies and expanding fiscal deficits, the balance sheet hedging function of Bitcoin and hard assets like gold will be continuously amplified;
● The low level of year-end options IV + increased protective structures are interpreted by bulls as "protection below and imagination above," reserving space for a potential new trend in the first quarter of the coming year.
● Pessimistic/opposing side: They worry that the current environment resembles "the last few legs of a high-level relay race":
● Factors such as inflation stickiness, high asset prices, and political years significantly compress the Federal Reserve's true space for "substantial easing," making rate cut expectations prone to repeated downward revisions;
● If economic data weakens while inflation does not sufficiently decline, the risk of "stagflation" will emerge, at which point monetary policy will face dilemmas, posing a double blow to risk assets;
● The protective positions in the options market and institutions' high-level defense indicate that "smart money" has not bet on the continuation of a unilateral bull market, but is instead preparing for potential large-scale pullbacks using volatility strategies.
The core of the divergence between both sides lies not in "whether there will be a rate cut," but in "how much can be cut, how fast, and how long it can last." This is precisely the most sensitive variable in asset pricing and the main battlefield for the back-and-forth between bulls and bears in the coming year.
Outlook: Focus on Key Macro Nodes and Repricing of Volatility
In the short term, the market will focus on several key nodes: first, the upcoming inflation and employment data; second, the intensive public speeches by Federal Reserve officials following the minutes; third, how the political games surrounding budgets, tariffs, and elections evolve. These factors will collectively determine whether the rate cut path progresses smoothly along the current "moderately dovish" trajectory or is forced to "turn sharply" at some point. For the crypto market, what is more worth paying attention to is not the gains or losses of Bitcoin at a certain price level, but rather when volatility will be released from its suppressed state—which often signifies the true starting point of a new trend. Until then, high-level structural fluctuations and position rebalancing may remain the main theme, and participants who can position themselves when volatility is underestimated and operate contrarily when sentiment is extreme will hold greater initiative in the next phase of the market.
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