Master Discusses Hot Topics:
The most important thing about yesterday's macro news is that the Federal Reserve has become more straightforward. Why can't inflation come down now? Even the officials are too lazy to play along and directly shift the blame to tariffs.
The meaning is very clear: it's not that demand is too hot; it's that policy costs have been forcibly pushed up, and don't expect a return to 2% in the short term—don't even think about it.
The labor market is even more interesting. They say there is insufficient vitality. In plain language, companies are starting to get timid, beginning to save money, and are reluctant to hire. With fewer immigrants, an aging population, and not enough workers, labor supply is shrinking. This is not an improvement; it's the prelude to a hidden recession.
Stop letting people tell you every day how stable and strong the old country's economy is. If it were really that stable, would the Federal Reserve be glued to the data, afraid to act? The current logic is that the outlook is unclear, so just hang on; every day is a day gained.
As for interest rate cuts? Don't expect anything in January. The overwhelming consensus among Americans is to stay put and watch the data. Whoever moves first will take the blame. If adjustments are to be made, the earliest would be after March, provided inflation truly cooperates. Otherwise, just continue to endure, exhausting the market and emotions.
Back to the market, I believe everyone has a sense of the current state. Retail investors are being driven to the brink, laughing in the morning, suffering in the afternoon, and the evening market still has to continue.
Staring at the market until midnight, eyes red, emotions drained, and the results are hard to describe. Not only is liquidity poor, but even most retail investors have run away. So if the market doesn't stir up some excitement soon, it will really go cold.
Key market movements never follow the usual paths. Bitcoin was crazily testing support last week, and in the past few days, it has gone to test the 89K resistance at the MA30 line. The monthly line is about to be drawn, and Bitcoin has already closed in the red for three consecutive months. If you still say this is a bull market, no one would believe it.
In my opinion, this is the beginning of a bear market, but not a deep one. Even with poor liquidity, it won't completely dry up, so the probability of a positive close in January is actually not low. This is also why I say it will repeatedly test the 89K position in the near future.
I've lost count of how many times the 86.5K support has been defended. The price has been grinding sideways between 86.5K and 90K for 11 days, and now it's just a dead zone with no movement. Subjectively speaking, the fact that it hasn't gone above 90K for so long is essentially weak.
The first scenario is to continue sideways until everyone is fed up, then directly break through 86.5K to look for 83.7K. The second scenario is if it forcibly breaks through 90K, then the shorts will have to admit defeat, and after going up, there might be a chance to see 94K.
As for Ethereum, only three months out of the year have had positive monthly returns. The remaining nine months have all been negative, with a trend similar to the bear market of 2018. Short-term support is at 2835 and 2715, with resistance at 3400 and 3719. Just keep an eye on the lower boundary of 2900-2915 during the day.
As long as it can still climb in small steps, the probability of hitting that price again is low. However, this drop from 3447 to 2766 hasn't broken the triple bottom, so a mid-term rebound to 3180 is expected, provided there are no more shenanigans. I, Master, will be waiting for everyone in 2026.
Master Looks at Trends:
Bitcoin has formed a W bottom on the 15-minute chart, breaking the neckline and then pulling back. Currently, the area around 87.8K is holding, so it can be considered a short-term support level.
On the hourly chart, pay attention to the short-term movement of the 20MA, as well as the support levels at 87.8K, 120MA, and 200MA. The previous highs of 88.8K to 89K are very obvious strong resistance areas and also psychological barriers.
At present, the probability of the price being pushed back in the range of 88.8K to 89K is relatively high. As long as the lower support holds, there is still a possibility of repeatedly testing the upper pressure. The RSI has started to turn down around 55, indicating that there is still an expectation for a short-term pullback.
The second support range of 87.3K to 88K is the area where there was repeated consolidation before the previous rapid rise, making it an important support zone with dense trading. If the price breaks below and then returns to the downward trend channel, the probability of continuing to weaken will significantly increase.
Before truly stabilizing above 89K, it is likely to continue oscillating in a box pattern. A sharp short-term rise may look good, but in the medium to long term, the lower chips have not been solidified, making it easy for the price to experience pullbacks and rises followed by retractions. Be cautious of the market washing out positions back and forth.
12.31 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Buy in the range of 87300-87800, Target: 88800-89400
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "always catch the tops and bottoms," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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