The six major banks' digital RMB wallets "can earn interest": Who can receive interest, how is it calculated, and what does the market think?

CN
3 hours ago

Beijing Time, on the evening of December 27, 2024, the six major state-owned commercial banks simultaneously launched the "Digital RMB Current Wallet" interest calculation function on the Digital RMB App and their own clients. This marks the first implementation of a Chinese version of an "interest-bearing wallet," attracting intense market and user attention. This change signifies a key transition for digital RMB from a "payment tool" to a "value-bearing tool," leading to heated market debates about who can earn interest, where the interest comes from, how commercial banks price it, and its impact on traditional deposits and internet balance products.

Key Signals of Interest Calculation for Digital RMB Wallets from Six Major Banks

● News Driven: According to Research Brief, the six major banks, ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BOCOM, and PSBC, launched the "Digital RMB Current Wallet" function almost simultaneously in late December. Users can transfer funds into the corresponding "current wallet," where interest will be calculated daily and settled monthly, essentially forming a one-to-one correspondence with current deposits in a "digital form."
● Change in Fund Form: The core of this adjustment is:
Only certain types of digital RMB wallets will earn interest, and they must be linked to a real-name bank account;
● Funds in the wallet are still classified as bank liabilities, with interest calculation logic linked to current deposits, rather than being directly paid by the central bank;
● Distinction between "real-name wallets earning interest and anonymous wallets not enjoying interest," creating a clear tiered yield structure.
● Unified Rhythm: Brief points out that this action by the six banks is highly coordinated, maintaining a high degree of consistency in function naming (such as "Digital RMB Current Wallet" and "Current Sub-Wallet"), interest calculation explanations, risk warnings, etc., signaling that "the bank's foundational capabilities are ready."
● Product Positioning: From the information disclosed by each bank, this round of interest calculation is positioned as a digital substitute for current funds:
● Supports deposits and withdrawals at any time;
● Supports seamless integration with consumption scenarios;
● Interest rates are linked to the ordinary current deposit rates within the bank, with no significant premium.

Who Can Earn Interest: Layering of Real-Name Wallets and Anonymous Wallets

● Real-name binding is a prerequisite: Brief clarifies that the scope of interest calculation only covers wallets that have completed real-name verification and are linked to bank settlement accounts, including:
● Digital RMB wallets directly opened by the six major banks;
● "Digital RMB Current Wallet/Sub-Wallet" opened with one click through the bank's app;
● Wallet balances from scenario wallets with clear funding sources that can be traced back to real-name accounts.
● Anonymous wallets do not earn interest: For anonymous wallets that have not undergone real-name verification and have lower limits:
● They can still be used for small payments and QR code consumption;
● Balances do not earn interest and are not included in the current deposit system;
● The bank views them as "convenient payment tools," rather than accounts that bear stable liabilities.
● Policy Logic of Layered Design:
● By incentivizing interest, more users are guided to migrate high-frequency funds to real-name digital wallets, achieving traceable and regulated funds;
● Avoiding the misuse of anonymous wallets as long-term fund storage tools due to "interest-bearing," reducing anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing risks;
● Maintaining a balance between "accessibility and inclusiveness" and "prudent regulation": small anonymous wallets emphasize convenience, while large real-name wallets emphasize safety and yield.
● Potential Impact on User Behavior:
● Individual users are motivated to concentrate their daily scattered funds into real-name digital wallets to obtain a composite yield of "current interest + payment convenience";
● Merchants and platforms are more inclined to use interest-bearing wallet forms during settlements, improving fund utilization efficiency;
● There is still demand for anonymous small wallets, but it is more focused on scenarios like "emergency payments" and "senior phones/children's phones."

Where Does the Interest Come From: Dissecting Bank Liability Attributes and Interest Calculation Mechanisms

● Essentially still bank liabilities: Research Brief emphasizes that the classification of digital RMB on commercial banks' balance sheets is liabilities to customers, and this interest calculation does not change its accounting attributes:
● The source of interest calculation funds comes from commercial banks, not the central bank;
● Banks view digital RMB current wallets as a new form of current deposits;
● The central bank only has an asset-liability relationship with banks during the issuance of digital RMB, and does not directly pay interest to end users.
● Interest Calculation Rules Align with Traditional Current Deposits:
● Interest calculation method: calculated based on daily balance, with interest settled monthly or quarterly;
● Interest rate level: roughly consistent with the ordinary current deposit interest rate range of the same bank, with current mainstream interest rates for current deposits fluctuating around 0.2%–0.3% annualized, and no significant increase for digital wallets;
● Tax treatment: Each bank adopts a unified statement of "withholding and paying interest tax (if any) in accordance with the law," maintaining consistency with the existing deposit interest tax system.
● Fund Utilization Logic:
● Banks include the balances of digital RMB current wallets in the overall liability pool, coordinating with ordinary current funds;
● On the asset side, traditional tools such as loans, bond investments, and interbank borrowing remain dominant, with no exclusive targeting of digital RMB funds yet;
● Due to the efficiency of digital forms in clearing and settlement, fund turnover efficiency can be slightly improved under the same liability cost.
● Cost and Yield Trade-off:
● Banks need to pay interest on the newly added "digital current liabilities," increasing interest expenses;
● However, digitization can reduce costs related to branch operations, cash management, and clearing, partially offsetting interest pressure;
● In regulatory assessments, digital RMB balances are expected to be viewed as part of a stable source of funds, helping to optimize liquidity indicators and deposit structures.

Comparison with Internet Money Market Funds like Yu'ebao: The Subtle Game of Yield and Liquidity

● Differences in Yield Levels:
● Brief mentions that current mainstream internet money market funds have a 7-day annualized yield fluctuating between 1.5%–2.5%, significantly higher than the ordinary current and digital RMB current wallets' 0.2%–0.3% annualized;
● The digital RMB current wallet does not have an advantage in absolute yield, being closer to a "quasi-cash management tool" rather than a substitute for money market funds;
● For users seeking maximum yield, products like Yu'ebao remain competitive.
● Liquidity and Payment Convenience:
● The digital RMB current wallet can be used directly in scenarios such as payments, transfers, collections, and offline QR code scanning, with funds "available for immediate payment," requiring no redemption;
● Some internet money market funds, while supporting "quick payments," may still face risks of redemption and payment desynchronization during extreme market conditions or limited periods;
● For high-frequency payment users, the experience advantage of "payment equals current" is difficult to be simply covered by annualized yield.
● Risk and Regulatory Environment:
● Internet money market funds are constrained by the framework of the Fund Law and the Securities Regulatory Commission, facing multiple restrictions such as net value fluctuations, concentration management, and liquidity regulation;
● The digital RMB current wallet is backed by bank on-balance sheet liabilities, with risk attributes closer to deposits, providing a stronger sense of security;
● During market volatility and declining risk appetite, some conservative funds may flow back from internet money market funds to interest-bearing digital wallets and ordinary deposits.
● Changes in User Asset Composition:
● For small high-frequency funds, users are motivated to migrate from spare change/balances in Alipay and WeChat to interest-bearing digital RMB wallets;
● For medium to large idle funds, they may still primarily rely on fixed-term, structured deposits, and money market funds;
● In the long run, the digital RMB current wallet resembles a "cash+" product rather than a direct counterpart to money market funds.

Potential Impact on Traditional Deposits and Payment Systems

● Restructuring of Current Deposit Structure:
● From the bank's perspective, the digital RMB current wallet is not an "additional deposit," but a form migration of current deposits: from account balances to wallet balances;
● By binding to payment scenarios, banks have the opportunity to increase the retention time of current funds, reducing the proportion of funds deposited in payment institution systems;
● Some funds that originally stayed on payment platforms and third-party wallets are expected to flow back into the banking system, enhancing the completeness of the public-private settlement loop.
● Squeeze Effect on Payment Institutions:
● The digital RMB wallet supports various near-field payment methods such as QR code scanning, NFC, and tap-to-pay, which can directly replace the existing QR code system in some scenarios;
● When users discover that "for the same QR code payment, the bank wallet can earn interest while other wallets do not," the diversion of small high-frequency funds is highly probable;
● Payment institutions need to counter this squeeze through more value-added services and scenario operations, as the space relying solely on "fund accumulation + interest spread" is further compressed.
● Challenges for Small and Medium Banks and City Commercial Banks:
● The six major banks are clearly ahead in digital RMB infrastructure and scenario expansion, and the launch of interest-bearing wallets will amplify their channel and technical advantages;
● If small and medium banks cannot quickly access and launch competitive wallet products, they may further lose entry points for public-private settlements;
● In the future, they may need to unite through joint wallets and cross-bank scenario wallets to collectively counter the siphoning effect of leading banks.

Regulatory Perspective: Why Choose This Moment to Allow Digital Wallets to "Earn Interest"

● Gradual Reform Path: Research Brief shows that since the pilot in 2020, the regulatory positioning of digital RMB has evolved from "controllable pilot" to "multi-scenario promotion":
● Initially focused only on small retail payments and government payments, without involving interest calculation;
● From 2022 to 2023, it gradually expanded to high-frequency scenarios such as public transportation, e-commerce platforms, and cross-border pilots;
● In 2024, after the technology, risk control, and compliance verification matured, it began to tentatively open "current interest calculation."
● Avoiding "digital runs" and interest rate competition:
● Regulators are highly sensitive to the potential rapid migration of funds that "digital form + interest" may trigger;
● This time, interest calculation is only at the current level, and the interest rate is consistent with traditional current deposits, avoiding disorderly competition with fixed-term deposits and wealth management products;
● By controlling large short-term volatility risks through real-name/anonymous layering and limit management tools.
● Strengthening Traceability and Anti-Money Laundering Capabilities:
● By using interest as a long-term incentive, more funds are directed into real-name wallets, increasing the proportion of identifiable funds;
● For high-risk industries, cross-border funds, and unusually frequent transactions, the digital form provides more granular data support;
● While not changing the positioning of cash substitutes, it enhances financial security and macro-prudential management tools.

Bullish and Bearish Perspectives: Is it Financial Technology Progress or a Re-Centralization of the Traditional System?

● Bullish Perspective: Considered a substantial advancement in the digital financial system
● The digital RMB has evolved from "only spending" to "earning interest," filling a key gap as a value storage tool;
● For users, obtaining a composite experience of "payment + current interest" without sacrificing security is a frictionless upgrade;
● For the banking system, it helps "bring funds back on the balance sheet," weakening the importance of off-balance-sheet shadow payment systems, making the financial system more transparent and controllable;
● In the long run, the interest-bearing capability of digital RMB will become a foundational capability for international pilot projects and cross-border settlements.
● Bearish Perspective: Concerns about further exacerbating financial concentration and privacy pressures
● The leading position of the six major banks in technology and scenario resources, combined with interest-bearing digital wallets, may reinforce their oligopolistic position in retail finance;
● The interest incentives for real-name wallets may inadvertently compress the space for anonymous use, raising concerns about privacy protection;
● For small and medium banks, payment institutions, and local financial organizations, funds and customer data are further concentrated towards the leading banks, increasing operational pressure;
● If the interest rate mechanism becomes more market-oriented in the future and unfair competition intensifies, it may impact the self-discipline of interest rates in the traditional deposit market.

Deep Logic: From "Payment Tool" to "Digital Currency Infrastructure"

The interest calculation for digital RMB wallets is not an isolated product innovation but resonates with the long-term path of China's financial digitization, payment structure reconstruction, and regulatory framework upgrade. On one end, there is a top-down push for unified and transparent payment infrastructure, aiming to reduce systemic risks brought by "multiple wallets and multiple clearances"; on the other end, commercial banks are being compelled to undergo digital transformation, retaining funds and data in forms that are more aligned with user habits at the retail end. When "wallets are accounts, payments are bookkeeping, and balances are current" becomes a reality, the digital RMB gradually evolves from a mere payment medium to a comprehensive infrastructure that carries funds, data, and compliance requirements, and its reshaping of internet finance, traditional banking, and regulatory models is just beginning to emerge.

Future Outlook: Three Main Lines of Interest Rates, Scenarios, and Internationalization

In the short term, the market will focus on three key variables: first, whether the six major banks will make micro-adjustments and differentiated pricing for the interest rates of digital RMB current wallets within the regulatory framework to compete for wallet shares; second, whether interest-bearing wallets can quickly cover more high-frequency scenarios, forming a complete loop from offline small stores to large e-commerce platforms, and then to public services and cross-border payments; third, in the context of fluctuations in the international financial environment and changes in geopolitical patterns, whether the "interest-bearing capability" of digital RMB will be included in discussions on cross-border pilot projects and regional cooperation. It can be expected that as technology and regulation continue to evolve, "interest-bearing" digital wallets will become an important window for observing the process of financial digitization in China, and multi-party competition will persist in the long term.

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