Eastern Standard Time, December 30th - News has emerged that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to review new proposals for digital asset regulation at a public meeting this week, becoming a catalyst for resonance in the cryptocurrency and U.S. stock markets. As a result, U.S. stock sectors highly correlated with on-chain assets experienced significant fluctuations during the trading session, with some blockchain concept stocks seeing daily volatility exceeding 12%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price difference within 24 hours before and after the news approached 6%, indicating a fierce battle between regulatory expectations and risk appetite. This development is viewed as a critical milestone in the U.S. digital asset compliance process and reinforces the market's repricing of the policy path for 2025.

Regulatory Agenda: Proposal Content and Time Window

● News Driven: Research Brief indicates that the SEC plans to discuss a proposal on "regulatory framework for digital asset trading and custody" at its public meeting on Tuesday (December 31st, Eastern Standard Time). The agenda document repeatedly mentions keywords such as broker-dealer, custody, market structure, which the market interprets as potentially redefining the compliance boundaries for trading platforms and custodians.
● Time Structure: According to the meeting announcement, the relevant topics will be discussed in the latter part of the agenda, with meeting minutes and draft highlights expected to be published a few hours after the meeting. The formal consultation period typically lasts 30–60 days, meaning that the finalized regulations may not be seen until the end of Q1 2025 at the earliest.
● Scope of Involvement: The Brief points out that the proposal focuses on "digital asset securities," but remains deliberately vague on whether "utility tokens" will be included, continuing to use the Howey Test framework for case-by-case judgments, leaving the SEC with considerable enforcement discretion.
● Connection to Existing Rules: The SEC intends to supplement and extend existing rules such as Reg ATS and Custody Rule, rather than creating an entirely new "crypto law." This means:
● Traditional broker-dealers and custodians can expand their digital asset business under existing licensing frameworks;
● Purely crypto-native platforms without traditional financial licenses will face significantly higher compliance costs.

Funds and Market: How Prices and Liquidity Respond

● Fund Movements: On-chain and over-the-counter data from the Brief show that after the news broke, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of approximately $210 million within 24 hours, while during the same period, the open interest in BTC perpetual contracts increased by nearly 8%, indicating that leveraged funds are betting on short-term volatility, with a warming risk appetite rather than a one-sided hedge.
● U.S. Stock Correlation: Among crypto-related U.S. stocks, Coinbase briefly surged over 9% before giving back half of its gains; several mining stocks saw their turnover double during the day, reflecting traditional funds engaging in high-frequency trading between expectations of "long-term regulatory benefits and short-term disruptions."
● Sector Differentiation:
● Assets highly related to compliant custody and compliant exchanges received relative net inflows, seen as potential rule winners;
● Decentralized trading and high-risk meme-related assets faced short-term selling pressure, with some small-cap coins dropping over 15% within 48 hours, reflecting the market's pre-pricing of potential tightening of "anti-money laundering and investor protection" provisions.
● Liquidity Structure: The Brief mentions that during this round of volatility, the net subscription scale of stable value pegged assets was slightly above $100 million, contrasting with net redemptions seen during previous regulatory turmoil this year, indicating that incremental funds are viewing "compliance expectations" as a prerequisite for long-term entry rather than purely bearish.

Deep Logic: U.S. Compliance Path and Industry Evolution

This regulatory agenda is not an isolated event but resonates with the phased evolution of the U.S. financial system's attitude towards digital assets. During 2023-2024, multiple enforcement actions against trading platforms and issuers have made "enforcement before legislation" the market's main theme; starting in the second half of 2024, whether it is the digital asset bill drafts at the congressional level or signals released by the SEC and CFTC in public forums, all point in one direction: to reserve institutionalized pathways for compliant businesses without compromising investor protection and systemic risk bottom lines. If this proposal incorporates custody and trading infrastructure into a mature broker-dealer and trust framework, it means that the threshold for "licensing" will be significantly raised, but it will also provide institutional funds with clearer risk boundaries and compliance paths. For the crypto industry, this tightening of regulations and raising of thresholds may compress the arbitrage space in gray areas in the short term but is expected to enhance the valuation premium of quality projects and leading platforms over a longer cycle.

Bull-Bear Game: Divergence and Bets Under Regulatory Expectations

● Optimistic/Supporters: They believe this is a key step towards the industry's coming of age:
● By incorporating custody, trading, and disclosure into a mature financial framework, institutional investors' compliance concerns will be systematically weakened, potentially leading to large-scale net inflows of funds in the medium to long term;
● Once rules are clarified, leading compliant platforms are expected to gain "regulatory dividends," creating positive feedback in market share, valuation, and cross-border business expansion;
● Taking the market performance after multiple regulatory events in 2024 as an example, the Brief points out that mainstream assets often complete price recovery and reach new highs about 3–6 months after clear negative enforcement, supporting the argument that "clarification of rights can actually be bullish."
● Pessimistic/Opponents: They worry about short-term shocks and long-term innovation constraints:
● If the proposal maintains a broad definition of "digital asset securities," the SEC may expand its jurisdiction through administrative interpretations, raising compliance costs for startups and innovation;
● For native platforms that have not yet obtained traditional financial licenses, the new KYC, custody segregation, and capital adequacy requirements will consume a large portion of profit margins, forcing them to choose between business withdrawal and going overseas;
● Some projects that heavily rely on the U.S. market for liquidity may face liquidity vacuums and valuation repricing risks during the regulatory transition period, leading opponents to argue that this agenda is "short-term bearish and long-term uncertain."

Future Outlook: Key Nodes and Trading Perspectives

In the short term, the market will focus on the wording details from the SEC's public meeting this week and the specific terms of the subsequent consultation draft, especially regarding the boundaries of "digital asset securities," the division of custody responsibilities, and the transition arrangements for existing platforms. If the final text maintains flexibility in boundary definitions and provides reasonable transition periods for implementation, risk assets may experience "emotional recovery after the regulatory boot drops"; conversely, if the terms directly impact mainstream trading and custody business models, a new wave of risk aversion and valuation compression may arise around Q1 2025. From a longer-term perspective, the clarity of the U.S. regulatory path will directly determine the speed and depth of institutional funds' allocation to digital assets and reshape the distribution pattern of global liquidity between compliant centers and offshore markets.

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