Qinglan Crypto Class is now in session! BTC's four cycles + dual perspectives on news, guiding you to catch the rhythm of the crypto world.

1. Comprehensive trend analysis and prediction
   From the K-line data we have, Bitcoin is currently in a state of short-term strong fluctuations, medium-term strong upward movement, and long-term strong reversal. In our Southern dialect, we would say this wave of market is "very fierce"!

Short-term (15 minutes): Strong fluctuations
Looking at the recent K-line on the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin has been undergoing slight fluctuations above $90,000. Although the MACD's DIF line and DEA line are above the 0 axis, the fast and slow lines are somewhat converging, and the MACD green bars (positive values) are starting to shorten. The RSI is in the 50-60 range, indicating that the short-term upward momentum has weakened, and there may be a slight pullback or sideways consolidation. However, the overall moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, with the price above MA5 and MA10, so we say it is strong in fluctuations, with limited downward space in the short term, but a quick surge also requires new catalysts.

Medium-term (1 hour & 4 hours): Strong upward movement
The 1-hour and 4-hour charts are impressive, with a very clear trend: upward!
1-hour chart: The K-line has risen from over $87,000, recently breaking through the $90,000 mark in the last 24 hours. All MA moving averages are in a standard upward bullish arrangement, with MA5 far ahead of MA10 and MA20. The MACD indicator maintains a strong golden cross above the 0 axis, and although the recent K-line's MACD red bars (positive values) have shortened, the DIF and DEA are still close but have not formed a death cross, indicating that the upward momentum remains strong, just possibly entering a high-level consolidation phase to digest some short-term profits. The RSI also remains above 60, indicating that the market is still leaning towards bullish.
4-hour chart: This period shows even more stability! The K-line trend is very healthy, with a series of bullish candles steadily climbing. The MA moving averages are also in a perfect bullish arrangement, with good distance between the lines, indicating that the upward trend is very solid. The MACD continues to maintain a golden cross above the 0 axis, and the red bars are continuously expanding, which means that the medium-term momentum is still abundant, and no reversal signals are currently seen. The RSI is around 65-70, although high, it is not severely overbought, leaving room for upward breakthroughs.

Long-term (1 day): Strong reversal
Looking back at the daily chart, we can clearly feel that Bitcoin has emerged from its previous deep decline, forming a beautiful "V" shape reversal. The MACD indicator on the daily level has made a strong golden cross upward from the negative zone, with red bars gradually expanding, which is a very strong long-term bullish signal! MA5 and MA10 have already crossed and started to rise, although MA20 is still above, according to this trend, it will soon form a large-scale bullish arrangement. The RSI has also quickly rebounded from the extremely oversold area (around 20) to near 55, indicating that bottom-fishing funds are actively entering, and market sentiment is shifting from pessimistic to optimistic, successfully reversing the long-term trend to an upward one.

2. Key support and resistance levels
   Combining multiple cycles, let's highlight the key points:

Key support levels:
Short-term: $90,000. This is an important psychological barrier and also a dense support area for MA5 and MA10 on the 1-hour chart. If there is a short-term pullback, there should be good support here.
Medium-term: $88,800 - $89,000. The MA5 on the 4-hour chart and the MA20 on the 1-hour chart are roughly at this position, which is strong support for the medium-term trend; a break below this level would require caution.
Long-term: $88,000 - $88,500. This is the MA5 support on the daily level and also the previous consolidation platform on the 4-hour chart. If it pulls back to this area, it will be a good long-term layout opportunity.

Key resistance levels:
Short-term: $90,400 - $90,500. This is the recent high point on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, and there may be some selling pressure here in the short term.
Medium-term: $91,000. A psychological round number and also a potential target above.
Long-term: $92,000 - $94,000. This is a more distant resistance on the daily chart and a key area that this rebound needs to challenge. Sister Qinglan also mentioned that $92,000 - $94,000 is the key resistance above in our news.

3. News integration and trading thoughts
   You see, our technical analysis has revealed a clear bullish trend, and the news front is like a shot of adrenaline for the bulls!

Whale movements are encouraging: "Big Brother Maji" and "a certain address" are going long on ETH, BTC, and altcoins with huge profits, indicating that large funds are very optimistic about the current market, especially with 25x and 40x leverage, showing their confidence! Funds are shifting towards the crypto market, with gold and silver prices peaking, which means funds are flowing from traditional safe-haven assets into our cryptocurrencies, right? This is a clear signal!
Regulatory benefits continue to advance: The new virtual asset regulations in Hong Kong and U.S. Senator Lummis's push for crypto legislation indicate that the crypto market is gradually moving towards compliance. This clarity in regulatory frameworks is the biggest benefit for institutional funds entering the market and lays the foundation for the long-term healthy development of the market.
Ecosystem construction and application expansion: Tether's investment in the cross-border payment platform SQRIL, Coinbase CEO discussing content tokens, and Aave's commitment to sharing protocol revenue all indicate that the underlying value and application scenarios in the crypto world are continuously expanding, not just speculation.
ETF and market sentiment: The capital-absorbing effect of the XRP spot ETF, although not BTC, reflects the strong demand for crypto ETF products in the market. Predictions from giants like BlackRock regarding the combination of stablecoins and AI in crypto also outline a grand future for the industry.
Short-seller liquidations boost upward movement: Despite news of $50 million in liquidations across the network, most of it was from short positions, which instead provided fuel for the bulls, accelerating the price breakout.

Our predictions and trading thoughts:
Overall, Bitcoin's upward trend is very healthy and supported by multiple positive news. Although there may be slight fluctuations or pullbacks in the short term, in the medium and long term, the bullish forces still dominate.

As for trading thoughts, we can approach it this way:

1. Overall strategy: Focus on buying the dips. Do not easily short at the top; the risks of counter-trend trading are too high.
2. Short-term operation: If the price fluctuates in the $90,000 - $90,500 area, you can wait for a small-level pullback to around $90,000 or even $89,800, confirm effective support, and then enter a small position long, targeting $91,000.
3. Medium-term operation: For conservative investors, you can enter long positions when the 4-hour or 1-hour chart pulls back to key moving averages (for example, the 1-hour MA20 around $89,800, or the 4-hour MA5 around $90,000) and stabilizes. Stop-loss can be set below the 4-hour MA10, targeting $92,000 - $94,000.
4. Long-term layout: The bullish reversal on the daily level is very promising. If there is a larger pullback, such as to the $88,000 - $88,500 range, it will be a safer long-term entry or accumulation point.

Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, so we must control our positions and strictly set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Making money is good, but preserving capital is the most important!

For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, check out my Qinglan Crypto Class at qinglan.org. Finally, Sister Qinglan leaves you with a trading quote: "The way of trading is like walking a mountain path; step by step is how you reach the top, do not blindly run and fall."

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。