A day is very short, short enough that there is no time to turn the morning dew into a necklace; a month is very short, short enough that there is no time to wait for the new willows to comb their brows; a year is very short, short enough that there is no time to understand the whispers of the swallows between the beams; a lifetime is very short, short enough that there is no time to finish speaking the youthful secrets, as time has already stolen our appearances; those unspoken pleas to stay have grown into silent vines…

It has been a while since the last article update, and in the blink of an eye, it is already 2026. In the new year, on a whim, I took a look at the market and will now simply share some thoughts. The crypto assets have experienced a liquidity withdrawal in 2025, and what is needed now is rest. The impact of Trump issuing a coin on the market narrative is actually much greater than we imagined. This event, to some extent, has completely destroyed the image of crypto finance that many big players in this industry have worked hard to build. From the optimistic market at the beginning of 2025 to the subsequent continuous historical highs in Bitcoin prices, and finally to a period of correction at the end of the year, the repair of this narrative will take time, and 2026 will be a year of such repair.
On another macroeconomic front, the expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 are still being suppressed. Since the interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025, the market seems to have started to deteriorate. However, I do not believe this expectation will remain unchanged. In 2026, there will definitely be some breakthrough events that will force the Federal Reserve to accelerate the easing process. Therefore, we must believe that the macro fiat currency is still increasing, which is a long-term benefit for BTC and crypto assets. Liquidity will eventually return; it just hasn't come yet. My expectation is that liquidity will significantly improve around mid-2026. In 2025, we saw a surge in gold and silver prices. The speculation in safe-haven assets indicates that the entire financial market is not short of money; what they lack is risk appetite and confidence in the future. Only when the market lacks confidence will it buy relatively safe and stable assets, avoiding higher-risk assets. The gold market is large enough that at some point in the future, even a small outflow of funds can significantly enhance liquidity in the crypto space, and this may not just be empty talk. The risk appetite of the entire financial market is cyclical. Those who have been quietly accumulating cash will find that their cash reserves grow larger and larger. The more cash they have, the stronger the impulse to invest and buy at the bottom. Therefore, this market just needs some time to digest the valuation bubble from the previous cycle, and when the time is right, it will embark on a new adventure again.

So, looking ahead to the market expectations for 2026, overall, it will definitely not be easy, but as long as you endure the first half, the latter part will be filled with opportunities for you to reap rewards. Do not fear a bear market; without a bear market, there is no bull market. Only by lowering the average cost of the entire market can we ensure that the rise driven by demand is not just a rebound to escape but a true increase. Since the bull market began in 2014, hasn’t every time the market turned upward been after people were completely wiped out? Understanding this principle, we just need to wait patiently.

As for the current market situation, from the chart, we can see that since the late November 2025, we have been in a long relative bottom low-level oscillation market, and it has been long enough. As per usual, let’s first look at liquidity clearance. Affected by the short-term surge above 91,000, the market has completed the clearance of short-term liquidity above. Currently, to fully complete the short-term bearish clearance, the market needs to stand above 92,500. According to the market's usual behavior, after breaking the price of 91,000, the selling pressure has gradually decreased, but the market has not further advanced, which is typical of a bullish follow-up where the funds are not keeping up, and there is insufficient confidence to push higher. For the upcoming expectations, as long as we maintain a fluctuating market today, forming a strong bullish effect, then relative to Monday's market, it will stabilize, standing firm at 91,000 and attacking 93,000. On the downside, if a bullish clearance is needed, the market must fall back and break below 88,500 to complete the clearance of recent short-term buying liquidity. If the market maintains a fluctuating trend, the most likely scenario is that after clearing liquidity in one direction, it will begin to reverse and clear in the opposite direction.

On the technical side, the four-hour chart shows that the market has started to rebound from a low of around 87,300 and is currently in a bullish cycle. From a structural perspective, there are two previous high points at 94,500 forming a trend structure resistance, which is also the main resistance for the recent oscillation market. With the strong performance of consecutive bullish candles on the four-hour chart, we will see if it can form a bullish relay and charge upward to break through the resistance. There is not much else to say; today is Sunday, and maintaining some strength within the oscillation would be an ideal market. The key point is to wait until tomorrow. In terms of operations, before forming a strong breakthrough, we will proceed with a fluctuating strategy, choosing to short near 93,000, with a stop loss above 94,500. If there is a pullback, we will consider buying again below 90,000.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delays in information, making strategies not timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies. Feel free to contact and discuss the market.】

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