The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to cryptocurrency enthusiasts. I welcome all crypto friends to follow and like, and I refuse any market smoke screens!

Currently, the scrutiny in the cryptocurrency circle is becoming increasingly strict. Many opinions may be taken down the same day after being written. Lao Cui is too lazy to make changes; once modified, it may not align with the original intent. Therefore, if you have any questions, be sure to ask Lao Cui in a timely manner. Yesterday's article ended with a military action that made the users in Lao Cui's hands very anxious. Especially for users holding positions in the market, whether in spot or contracts, they are very sensitive to all news. We cannot elaborate on military matters, but everyone needs to have their own judgment regarding the impact on the cryptocurrency circle. Firstly, Venezuela is not a country with a large holding of cryptocurrencies; even if such a country collapses, the impact on the cryptocurrency circle will not be too great. The market that can be affected will primarily be its own specialty energy; there is no need to scare oneself with panic. This upward trend cannot be influenced by a small country.

The countries that can influence the cryptocurrency market are actually just a few: the United States, Japan, South Korea, our relationship with Russia, and the European Union system. As long as there is no ongoing war that affects the world order, it will not cause significant bearish sentiment. On the contrary, after this incident, Lao Cui's first reaction is that the appreciation of dollar assets has become a trend. There will likely be more small countries expressing their stance, and pro-American countries will increase. From Lao Cui's personal perspective, this at least makes the cryptocurrency market dominated by the United States easier to gain legitimacy among small countries. This is probably the reason for today's rise in the cryptocurrency market. Some friends have cited last year's conflicts between Israel and Palestine and between Israel and Iran as examples for Lao Cui. These are different concepts; firstly, both Israel and Iran are systems that accept cryptocurrency payments. In other words, they themselves possess cryptocurrency assets, and the same goes for Russia and Ukraine. Such turmoil can directly impact the cryptocurrency market.

Because everyone cannot determine whether they will abandon their cryptocurrencies to exchange for other resources, there will be a lot of market sentiment during this period. For example, at the end of 2024, Lao Cui mentioned that a batch of Bitcoin in the domestic market would be liquidated. From December to March 2025, a new low was formed. Compared to the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency circle, it may not significantly move the market. However, everything done by countries of this size is traceable. This year, the explicit prohibition of the cryptocurrency market is the main reason that can impact the cryptocurrency market. As users in the cryptocurrency circle, we must remain objective. The United States demonstrates its strength, and the ones profiting are the assets of the United States, which currently includes the cryptocurrency market. Since you have chosen to stand with the cryptocurrency circle, you only need to focus on the measures taken by the United States. The key is substantial data; the United States currently holds over $30 billion in cryptocurrency assets, with 97% of the holdings in BTC. This is a state-owned account, not Trump's private property.

Entering January, you only need to focus on two data points: one is the non-farm payroll data on the 9th, and the other is the CPI on the 13th. Currently, it seems that there is no possibility of interest rate cuts in January; we can only wait for these two data points to estimate the inflation data for the United States last year. The only uncontrollable factor is the data from October, so when making estimates, at least one percentage point should be adjusted downwards. The biggest issue is the employment rate. From the data that has already been released, the United States' strategy regarding employment in 2025 is a failure. This is the strongest evidence supporting interest rate cuts in the first half of the year. Additionally, based on the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials, Paulson mentioned that there may be further interest rate cuts later this year; this statement seems to favor interest rate cuts but is actually a delay tactic. At least from his words, it can be inferred that there will not be another interest rate cut in the short term. The only hope may be postponed until March or even later, so we cannot overly expect interest rate cuts.

For those who are shorting, this may be an opportunity. Do not think that it is impossible to short in a bullish state; this concept does not exist. Users with small positions or insufficient funds need to seize the opportunity to profit from the fluctuating range. Including the initiation of this market, it will not happen all at once and will have a certain depth of correction. The market is also likely to experience a pullback around the new highs before a complete breakout, and it will definitely face a deep dive until over 70% of the long positions are liquidated before the market rallies. Therefore, whether you are shorting or going long, you can take advantage of this washout to build positions or exit. Overall, looking at the market performance, XRP's four-hour inflow is second only to BTC, followed by DOGE; the growth status of these two cryptocurrencies is quite prominent. Currently, SOL's performance is relatively poor, but there are signs of a new high. For those who want to enter these smaller cryptocurrencies, it is advisable to wait for a pullback after reaching a new high.

Lao Cui's summary: Overall, the trend has not changed, and Lao Cui does not have much to elaborate on. If you have been keeping pace with Lao Cui from the beginning, there is no need to worry too much; at least this year's spot performance will be better than in 2025. You need to be a bit patient; users who found Lao Cui after December generally have a spot holding price lower than Lao Cui's. As long as I don't run away, you can rest assured; I will keep an eye on Trump for you. If he runs, I will start running too, and I will notify everyone before I do. For contract users, Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilizing around 91,000, and Ethereum has also shown a new trend, likely to challenge a new high. The pressure position for the next stage was also provided to everyone yesterday, so continue to watch for new highs. If Bitcoin can break the next stage's new high, it will be around 94,950, and for Ethereum, around 3,600. As long as it breaks, it basically announces the return of a bull market. If it cannot break, it may continue to oscillate for a while. For example, the meeting date for interest rate cuts is still far away; the rate decision will only be announced on the 29th, so just avoid this date! Contract users, if you have questions, feel free to message me, and you can also arrange your spot layout!

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, you can contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one territory, aiming for the final victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only seeking short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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