Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.11 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.56%, which is $1.82 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $30.75 billion, decreasing by 0.25% over the last 7 days, marking two consecutive weeks of negative weekly growth for stablecoins, with USDT accounting for 60.8%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 4.2%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 6.92%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 7.93%, MYX with a 7-day increase of 84.42%, and PEPE with a 7-day increase of 54.1%.
This week, the net inflow for the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $458.7 million; the net inflow for the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $1.613 billion.
Market Forecast (January 5 - January 9) :
The current RSI index is 60.59 (neutral range), and the fear and greed index is 26 (higher than last week, generally in the fear range), while the altcoin season index is 39 (neutral, higher than last week).
BTC core range: $87,000-93,000
ETH core range: $3,000-3,500
SOL core range: $129-150
This week marks the first week of 2026, with net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs directly contributing to the increase in cryptocurrency market value. After gold and silver broke new highs, prices have adjusted. In the context of capital overflow, cryptocurrencies have absorbed some liquidity. It is expected that next week's market will oscillate upward within a range, and short-term traders can engage in "buy low, sell high" actions. Recently, small-cap altcoins have seen significant increases, and given the uncertainty in the 2026 market, chasing highs is not recommended.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
On December 29, Lu Lei, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the bank will introduce an "Action Plan for Further Strengthening the Management and Service System of Digital Renminbi and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction." The new generation of digital renminbi measurement framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecological system will officially start implementation on January 1, 2026;
On December 29, Indian police arrested a former Coinbase customer service employee in Hyderabad, who is suspected of being involved in the internal data leak incident disclosed by Coinbase in May of this year. This is the first known arrest in the case, confirmed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong;
According to LatePost, Meta has acquired the company Butterfly Effect, which develops AI applications, for billions of dollars. This is Meta's third-largest acquisition since its establishment, following WhatsApp and ScaleAI. It is reported that before Meta's acquisition, Manus was raising funds at a valuation of $2 billion. "I almost doubted whether this was a fake offer," said Liu Yuan, a partner at ZhenFund and an angel investor in Butterfly Effect, noting that the acquisition negotiations were completed in a very short time, taking only about ten days;
On December 30, Trust Wallet proactively compensated affected users, with a total of approximately $8.5 million in stolen assets;
On December 31, thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a significant increase in AI investment enthusiasm, the global stock market is expected to achieve its largest annual increase in six years in 2025. As the last trading day of 2025 approaches, the MSCI Global Stock Index has risen 21% this year;
On January 4, Tom Lee published an article supporting BitMine's increase in authorized share capital, with BMNR rising 14.88%;
On January 3, after 2 PM Beijing time, a huge explosion was heard in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, and air raid sirens sounded. The power supply in the area near a large military base in the southern part of the city was interrupted. This incident may have caused a certain degree of pullback in the cryptocurrency market.
Macroeconomics
On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 was 199,000, the lowest since the week of November 29, below the market expectation of 220,000, with the previous value revised from 214,000 to 215,000;
On January 4, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 16.6%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 83.4%.
ETF
According to statistics, from December 29 to January 2, the net inflow of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF was $458.7 million; as of January 2, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.193 billion, currently holding $14.793 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $69.313 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $119.546 billion.
The net inflow of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF was $161.3 million.
Envisioning the Future
Project Progress
The Ethereum-focused video program The Daily Gwei will resume weekly updates on January 5, 2026;
The application deadline for the social app Based's Christmas commemorative "soul-bound" NFT is January 7, 2026;
Web3 robotics company XMAQUINA will collaborate with Virtuals Protocol for a DEUS community sale on January 8, with the auction starting at 8:00 PM on January 8, and an FDV of $60 million (DEUS price: $0.06). At TGE, 33% will be liquid assets, and 67% will vest linearly over 12 months. The public sale is open to all non-U.S. contributors, and eligible wallets can receive a 20% DEUS reward, including rewards for any previous genesis auction participants. Contributing 10,000 USDC with the same wallet will also earn a 20% DEUS reward.
Important Events
On January 7 at 21:15, the U.S. will announce December ADP employment numbers (in ten thousand);
On January 8 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 (in ten thousand);
On January 9 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate for December.
Token Unlocking
1.2 million tokens belonging to the team in Hyperliquid will be unlocked on January 6, with subsequent unlocks occurring on the 6th of each month;
Jito (JTO) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on January 7, valued at approximately $5.4 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply;
Movement (MOVE) will unlock 161 million tokens on January 9, valued at approximately $6 million, accounting for 1.62% of the circulating supply;
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.44 billion tokens on January 10, valued at approximately $10.18 million, accounting for 2% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you live, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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