On January 6, 2026, Eastern Standard Time, the direction of the Bitcoin derivatives market was thrust into the spotlight by a concentrated gamble. Options traders are betting on the extreme price of "reaching $100,000 by the end of January," with the open interest of related contracts on Deribit suddenly expanding, far exceeding other strike prices, indicating a shift in professional capital's expectations from defense to offense. Meanwhile, the long-standing debate between Arthur Hayes and Peter Schiff over whether "money printing inflation will drive up Bitcoin, or if gold is the ultimate safe haven" has once again been amplified in this round of rebound, reflecting a fierce clash between different asset ideologies beyond just price levels.
Accumulation of $100,000 Contracts: The Betting Table Tilted
On mainstream options trading platforms like Deribit, Bitcoin contracts with a $100,000 strike price have become the most prominent price bet. According to data cited in the briefing, the open interest for this strike price is double that of the second-largest contract, with accumulated chips clearly pushing the originally dispersed risk appetite towards the extreme upside. This concentration is not merely a release of noise from speculative funds but reflects a significant number of professional traders choosing to establish positions at high forward prices, indicating a repricing of the entire market's future path.
Unlike the previous focus on downside protection and buying low-strike put options, the current distribution of contract levels clearly shows: from conservative defense to aggressive offense, the pricing center has noticeably shifted upward. Jake Ostrovskis, head of over-the-counter trading at Wintermute, echoes this set of options data—he believes the market "no longer expects the most pessimistic downside scenario," but rather tilts the probability weight more towards the path of assets reaching new highs. The options market has always been seen as an amplifier of "smart money" sentiment, and when the $100,000 level is filled with chips, the betting table is pushed towards the optimistic side.
Emotional Reversal from Extreme Pessimism to High-Stakes Betting on New Highs
This structural change is underpinned by an emotional reversal from extreme pessimism to high-stakes betting on new highs. Previously, whether in options or other derivatives, mainstream positions were more focused on protecting against downside risks, with traders hedging against price drops by buying puts and constructing collar structures. However, as spot prices rebounded and macro expectations were adjusted, high-execution-price call options began to pile up on the open interest curve, with originally defensive derivative positions rapidly turning into proactive offensive leverage tools.
The distribution of open interest across various strike prices provides a window into the thinking of professional traders. When bets concentrate on high forward prices, it indicates they are not only reassessing Bitcoin's sensitivity to the return of global liquidity but also reevaluating the overall resilience of risk assets in the macro environment. Judgments on U.S. monetary policy, global inflation paths, and the return of risk appetite are being digitally presented through these contract numbers. However, any one-sided high-stakes betting position structure has its dark side: when a large amount of capital bets on extreme upside, if the price trajectory deviates from expectations, massive leverage and concentrated expiration points can quickly turn into triggers for amplified volatility, potentially igniting a liquidation chain in a short time, transforming this gamble from "charging ahead" to "stampeding out."
Expectations of a Money Printing Tsunami: Hayes…
In the macro context of this emotional reversal, Arthur Hayes has once again placed "money printing and easing" at the center of the narrative. He openly states that the U.S. is likely to restart a new round of monetary expansion and easing cycle, and in his framework, currency devaluation is not an accident but an inevitable result of institutional design. As more money is injected into the system and actual purchasing power is eroded, assets like Bitcoin, which have relatively fixed supply paths, will be elevated in nominal price.
Therefore, from Hayes's perspective, Bitcoin is not just a high-volatility risk asset but the preferred asset for hedging against currency overproduction and long-term inflation risks, a tool that ordinary investors can directly connect to the "anti-central bank balance sheet." Notably, he does not limit the narrative to Bitcoin itself but further points out that "privacy coins will become the dominant narrative." This means that, in his view, as regulation deepens its penetration into on-chain activities, the market's demand for anonymity and anti-censorship attributes will be reignited, with capital potentially rotating cyclically between Bitcoin, as a liquidity hub, and tracks that emphasize privacy features. This perspective also partly explains why the derivatives market is willing to pay premiums for further and higher price paths: in the story of the money printing tsunami, the upper limit of imaginative space is continuously raised.
Gold Camp Counterattack: Schiff…
On the other side, gold bull representative Peter Schiff chooses to pour cold water on this entire narrative. He openly questions the current Bitcoin rebound as "lacking fundamental support," directly countering the money printing and inflation logic relied upon by bulls like Hayes. In Schiff's worldview, the natural flow of currency devaluation and safe-haven demand should point towards verifiable, tangible gold, rather than digital assets based on code and consensus. He does not deny the structural issues within the fiat currency system but insists that Bitcoin is merely a high-beta speculative tool, unlikely to serve as a safe haven under true systemic risk pressure.
This creates a counterbalancing force against the current bullish optimism. On one side, supporters of "digital scarce assets" firmly believe that Bitcoin will undergo a structural revaluation amid the long-term pressures of central bank balance sheet expansion and fiscal deficits; on the other side, proponents of "traditional safe assets" emphasize that the true value-bearing entity that can withstand cycles is still gold. This value hedge is not just a debate about price trends but concerns what kind of assets deserve the labels of "safe haven" and "store of value." As the $100,000 options gamble intensifies, voices like Schiff's remind the market that while bullish sentiment is high, there is also deep skepticism about its foundations.
Regulatory Strangulation Tightens: Bullish Revelry…
In contrast to the market's frenzy, the tightening regulatory noose in the real world continues. According to data from a single source cited in the briefing, India has completed the registration of 49 exchanges under the FIU-IND framework, while blocking 25 non-compliant platforms and requiring platforms to strengthen KYC and wallet owner tracking measures. This approach not only cleans up local gray liquidity but also brings on-chain funds that were previously off the radar into the regulatory fold through data penetration.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is also continuing to crack down on unlicensed trading platforms, signaling that the tolerance for high-leverage speculation and gray funds is rapidly decreasing. The simultaneous tightening across multiple important jurisdictions globally has created a noticeable tension between this round of Bitcoin bullish revelry and the actual policy environment. The "structural bear market in altcoins" mentioned by Real Vision analysts can also be seen as a result of this tension: under the framework of regulatory constraints combined with cautious risk appetite, liquidity is being squeezed, high-risk sectors are facing valuation repricing, while Bitcoin temporarily plays the role of a relatively safe "leading chip." Bulls are betting on money printing to drive up prices while also having to face the reality that the rules of the game are quietly being rewritten by regulators.
Betting Above $100,000: Bubbles, Safe…
As the options market's gamble on $100,000 resonates with the optimistic narrative of "money printing driving up asset prices," the gold camp continuously cools this feast with questions of "lack of fundamental support" and "regulatory clouds looming." The long and short sides are not telling two completely unrelated stories; rather, they are both rooted in the same macro backdrop: the long-term accumulation of high debt, loose monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. Within this larger framework, whether Bitcoin will become the core beneficiary of the liquidity feast or merely a pool of chips concentrated for processing in the next round of sell-offs depends on how the market ultimately answers the question of "Is it really a safe haven asset?"
In a phase dominated by narrative and sentiment, a single "hero narrative" is particularly tempting: some bet on Hayes-style money printing tsunamis, while others insist on Schiff-style gold returns. However, for participants, rather than aligning with a particular viewpoint, it may be more crucial to build their own framework: understanding the true pricing of professional capital from the distribution of options positions, assessing the extent to which gray liquidity is being compressed from regulatory trends, and judging whether the market is pricing in "bubble expansion" or "safe haven premium" through comparisons across assets like Bitcoin and gold. Only on this basis can one find a relatively clear path for their positions amid the frenzy of betting on $100,000 and the macro noise.
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