In late December 2025 to early January 2026, Bitcoin strongly broke through the key resistance level of $94,400 after a continuous rally, but soon faced concentrated selling pressure, leading to significant price volatility. On-chain and transaction data indicate that within a time window of about three hours after the breakout, the market saw cumulative sell-offs exceeding $2.3 billion, coinciding with a notable increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges and sentiment indicators entering the extreme greed zone. Meanwhile, large addresses and institutional funds reduced their holdings at high levels, while small addresses and retail investors chose to continue accumulating, resulting in a clear divergence in capital direction. This opposing structure has been interpreted by many institutions as a potential process of forming a short-term top, which, while not sufficient to declare a trend reversal, has clearly exposed risk exposure above the price range of $94,400.

Three-Hour Selling Pressure Above $94,400

● Price action shows that after Bitcoin pierced through $94,400, it quickly encountered dense selling in the $94,000-$94,400 range, where orders and transactions rapidly expanded, forming a clear resistance zone in the short term, with multiple attempts to break through failing to establish a solid footing.
● Transaction statistics indicate that within approximately three hours after the price first broke $94,400, cumulative sell-off volume exceeded $2.3 billion, with selling pressure exhibiting concentrated characteristics rather than being dispersed or mild profit-taking. This led to a deep short-term pullback and frequent price spikes, reinforcing the market's impression of a "selling pressure zone" in this range.
● Current public data is insufficient to precisely define the dominant cause of this round of selling; it cannot confirm whether it was a single institution or whale offloading, nor can it simply be attributed to some form of manipulation. It can only be established that during this time period, there was a rapid transfer of large amounts of chips to the off-market or to low-level buyers.

Extreme Greed and Rising Options Speculation

● Sentiment indicators entered the extreme greed zone around the time of breaking $94,400, with bullish sentiment running high and the market holding strong expectations for further assaults on new historical highs. Some institutional research views this sentiment reading as a potential short-term top risk signal, contrasting with the phenomenon of concentrated cashing out at high levels.
● After the price broke through the key level, demand for bullish options clearly intensified, especially for contracts around the $100,000 strike price, with notable increases in trading volume and open interest, indicating that substantial funds are betting on the price extending towards the six-figure threshold, making the derivatives market's "gambling table" increasingly crowded.
● When extreme greed sentiment combines with high-leverage bullish positions, the sensitivity of spot prices to any sudden selling pressure is significantly amplified. If a concentrated sell-off similar to this $2.3 billion level occurs, the additional margin calls, passive liquidations, and forced liquidation mechanisms in the derivatives market could exacerbate volatility, turning what could have been a controllable technical pullback into a more severe short-term fluctuation.

The Picture of Whales Selling While Retail Investors Buy

The divergence in holdings between whales and retail investors is magnified above $94,400. On-chain tracking shows that large holding addresses, during the price breakout and high-level consolidation phase, opted to gradually reduce and redistribute their holdings, while small addresses continued to net accumulate chips during the same period, exhibiting a characteristic of "buying on the rise." This indicates that while institutional funds and whales are cashing out some floating profits and reducing exposure, retail investors are absorbing the chips above, creating a structure of opposing capital flows, which has become one of the core structural contradictions in the current market. Historical experience shows that when high-level chips are increasingly transferred to dispersed small holders, if the price trend reverses, retail investors, lacking risk management tools and liquidity advantages, are more likely to be pressured during declines, forced to sell at lower prices. This potential risk from passive absorption needs to be particularly emphasized in the current extreme sentiment and high volatility environment.

Miners Cashing Out at High Levels and Increased Exchange Inflows

● Data from miners also points to a trend of cashing out at high levels. Public information shows that the mining company Riot Platforms generated nearly $200 million in revenue from selling Bitcoin in November-December 2025, choosing to increase cashing out during a phase of sustained price strength, locking in some of their hash power output as fiat or cash flow.
● From a broader perspective of miner behavior, both on-chain and financial report information indicate a relatively sustained tendency to "cash out," meaning that when prices reach new highs or approach the upper range of historical levels, the scale of sales has increased compared to previous phases. However, qualitatively, it cannot simply be described as capitulation or a strategic pivot; a more reasonable description is a phase of utilizing profit windows and risk management needs.
● Accompanying the miners' actions, multiple monitoring metrics show that the number of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has significantly increased within 24 hours, indicating a potential concentration of sellable chips in the short term. Although some of the increase data still requires further cross-verification, the directional signal of "more coins being pushed into a tradable selling environment" is relatively clear, providing a realistic foundation for high-level selling pressure.

Subtle Divergence Between On-Chain Spot and Derivatives

● A significant feature of the current market is the apparent divergence between on-chain spot and derivatives market signals. On one hand, visible behaviors on the spot side include whales reducing holdings and miners continuously selling at high levels, with large chips more inclined to cash out at high levels; on the other hand, in the derivatives market, especially bullish options and high-leverage long positions, there has been continued expansion after the price broke $94,400, with bullish sentiment significantly heating up.
● This divergence structure implies that the upward extension of prices increasingly relies on the continuous inflow of new long funds rather than solid support from sustained large-scale buying in the spot market. The active long-term allocation power on the spot side is relatively insufficient, making prices more susceptible to being driven by changes in sentiment and liquidity.
● At the key resistance level, a large number of options and leveraged long positions are concentrated. If even a mild incremental selling pressure occurs subsequently, it could be amplified into more severe short-term fluctuations through margin pressure, liquidation chains, and options hedging demands, reinforcing the market expectation that "once high levels are lost, volatility will far exceed normal corrections."

Dense Top Signals but No Trend Declared

In summary, the market performance of Bitcoin after surging above $94,400 has concentrated multiple typical high-risk characteristics of a phase top: concentrated sell-offs exceeding $2.3 billion in a short time, sentiment indicators entering the extreme greed zone, whales and miners choosing to reduce and cash out at high levels, combined with retail investors absorbing at high levels and soaring demand for bullish derivatives, collectively sketching a risk-dense high-level structure. However, it is not yet possible to simply declare that the long-term upward trend has ended; a more reasonable interpretation is that the price has entered a phase that requires stronger fundamental and capital flow support. The real key risk lies in the possibility that if extreme sentiment and high-leverage long positions continue to accumulate while the spot side's new buying strength is insufficient, then the area above $94,400 is likely to be repeatedly validated as a selling pressure zone in subsequent trading, with each failed attempt weakening bullish confidence and increasing the probability of technical pullbacks or even deep adjustments. Moving forward, investors need to closely track the redistribution paths of large addresses, whether the pace of miner sales slows, and whether Bitcoin inflows to exchanges continue to increase, to determine whether the current stage is a high-level reshuffle, a strong turnover, or the construction of a longer-term top area, and adjust their position risk exposure and trading rhythm accordingly.

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