This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuances; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—these may not necessarily be direct wealth codes, but could simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from interactions with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.
The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members, does not accept any form of commercial advertising, and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement information sources, rather than to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, X official account) to exchange ideas, question, and joke around.
Azuma（@azuma_eth）
Introduction: Learning in various fields
Share: This week continues to focus on Polymarket.
- Many people have noticed the wealth effect of prediction markets, whether it's insider addresses making millions or arbitrage programs making profits without losses, under the bombardment of information, people become increasingly envious, and as a result, they end up losing money when they get too excited.
To briefly discuss the profit and loss distribution of Polymarket—it's not too surprising that 70% of users net losses, but many might not imagine that nearly 95% of the profits on Polymarket are earned by 1.2% of users, and further, 86% of the profits flow to 0.2% of users. So there's no need to be too anxious; prediction markets are inherently a market with a more extreme profit and loss structure.
- I discussed the profit model of prediction markets with colleagues. At least for now, Polymarket has no other clear profit channels besides the 0.01% fee charged on the U.S. market and the maximum 3% fee charged on the 15-minute cryptocurrency price fluctuation market yesterday. So the conclusion is still consistent with last weekend's article—prediction markets are currently a money-burning model under internet logic (Shayne Coplan admitted at the end of last year that Polymarket operates at a loss). With the support of financing advantages and compliance advantages, the leading effects of Polymarket and Kalshi will be more pronounced.
As for future revenue generation, besides going public or issuing tokens, there are three options: first, adding fees to more markets; second, issuing stablecoins to earn interest on deposited funds; third, monetizing data, such as monetizing high-value prediction data through institutional APIs and data distribution protocols.
Moni（@mich73692）
Introduction: Keep learning, keep striving
Share: Recently, the most关注ed event in the crypto community, and even globally, may be the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro. Maduro was previously a supporter of cryptocurrency and launched the "petro" in the country to cope with the economic and financial blockade imposed by the U.S. There are rumors that Venezuela may have converted gold into Bitcoin over the years, currently holding as much as 600,000 BTC, but the relevant data has not been confirmed on-chain. The crypto market does not seem to have been affected by this event; Bitcoin's price has been rising since entering 2026, with a return rate exceeding 5% so far in January, higher than the historical average return of 3.92% for January.
Another noteworthy event this week is that meme coins have sounded the first horn of the new year's crypto market, with PEPE rising over 60% weekly, BONK and FARTCOIN over 50%, PENGU and FLOKI over 40%, and DOGE, SHIB, and PUMP all rising over 20%. The rebound of meme coins usually signals that investors are willing to take on higher risks again, and some analysts believe that altcoins may soon see a price increase. Historically, the altcoin that benefited the most from the meme coin craze is SOL.
golem（X: @web3_golem）：
Introduction: Golem's creative ideas
Share: 1. Recently, I have been studying prediction markets and recommend a deep article that has been buried in information: “From AMM to Order Book: Interpreting the Shift in Polymarket's Pricing Mechanism and Its Potential Integration with DEX”.
In the early days, Polymarket used a similar order mechanism to AMM in DeFi, but because market makers are mathematically always at a loss in this model and transactions require more gas, Polymarket shifted to the current off-chain order book + on-chain settlement model.
The arbitrage opportunities we often refer to in prediction markets, where "the total probability is less than 100%," basically refer to multi-option markets rather than binary "yes or no" event contracts. However, there are also arbitrage opportunities in these simple binary contracts, as follows:
When the total price of yes + no is greater than $1, such as $0.7 + $0.4 = $1.1, arbitrageurs can execute a split operation. Deposit $1 into the contract, mint 1 YES ($0.5) and 1 NO ($0.5), and then sell them on the order book at "$0.7" and "$0.4". As long as the orders are filled, they can earn a profit of "$0.10".
When the total price of yes + no is less than $1, such as $0.6 + $0.3 = $0.9, arbitrageurs can execute a merge operation. Buy YES and NO shares at "$0.6" and "$0.3" on the order book, then combine them and redeem them from the contract for "$1", earning a profit of "$0.1".
Wenser（@wenser2010）
Introduction: Tea server, crypto soy sauce party, media observer
Share: 1. After the New Year, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and Japanese and Korean stock markets have all seen a wave of general increases, further indicating that the capital market is full of confidence in 2026, including significant recoveries in the prices of gold and silver. Currently, it seems that the main wealth effect in 2026 will still be stock market > precious metals > cryptocurrencies. My irresponsible prediction is that the peak for gold is around 4900-5100; for silver, the peak is around 90-105, for reference only, not constituting investment advice.
The rapid advancement of AI has driven a surge in storage and memory-related stocks. Besides the stocks in the market, the prices of pure memory sticks have also seen a rise. Yesterday, I even saw a news item mentioning "a hundred memory sticks are comparable to a house in Shanghai; a 256G DDR5 memory stick has a unit price exceeding 40,000 yuan." This, combined with the chip price increase driven by AI this year, may lead to a wave of price increases for phones and computers. Given that many people I see on social media have been visiting the CES electronics show in the U.S. and news about xAI completing $20 billion in financing, it feels like the AI bubble could last at least another 3-5 years. Therefore, AI-related memes and projects are worth paying attention to, such as SENT.
I have started to make small long positions in some Chinese concept stocks on MSX.com (formerly MyStonks), including XPeng Motors (new product launch), Baidu (Kunlun chip spin-off listing), and Huazhu (a well-established listed company in the hotel and travel industry). Additionally, based on last week's “Crypto Stock Barometer”, DAT company only looks at leaders, and Strategy and Bitmine can be slightly longed, observing the new nomination of Trump for the Federal Reserve chair in mid-January and at the end of the month. The strategy remains to bet on rebounds > long-term value investment; I do not recommend buying mining companies, as the selection difficulty is increasing.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
