Release Date: January 9, 2026, 10:00 (UTC+8)
As the last key employment report before the Federal Reserve's January meeting, this non-farm payroll data (NFP) will become a crossroads defining the direction of monetary policy in 2026.
1. Core Data Expectations
New Non-Farm Jobs: Expected 55,000.
Unemployment Rate: Expected 4.5% (previous value 4.6%).
Background Reference: This week, ADP (small non-farm) private employment increased by only 41,000, suggesting weak rebound momentum in the labor market. Affected by high interest rates and the aftershocks of government layoffs, the job market has entered a "cold balance."
2. Policy Path Impact
- Weaker than Expected (<50K): Confirms labor market loosening, increasing the probability of rate cuts in March-April. The Federal Reserve's stance will shift from "balanced" to "dovish" to guard against recession risks.
- Stronger than Expected (>90K): Rate cut expectations will be thwarted again, supporting a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while risk assets will face liquidity pressure in the short term.
BTC Trend Analysis: Volatility Returns, 94K Threshold Approaches
Currently, BTC is fluctuating around the $91,000 mark. The release of non-farm data will directly transmit to the crypto market through the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
- Bullish Scenario: If the data continues to be weak and liquidity expectations improve, BTC is expected to gain a 4-8% impulse rise, challenging the key resistance zone of $94,000 - $96,000.
- Bearish Scenario: If wage data unexpectedly remains stubborn or employment exceeds expectations, BTC may test the support range of $88,000 - $90,000 to seek a bottom.
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