Today's homework is still okay, right?

CN
Phyrex
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1 day ago

Today's homework is relatively good. The focus today is on the non-farm payroll data. The actual results show that the unemployment rate is lower than the previous value and below expectations. Although the number of non-farm jobs added is less than expected, it overall indicates that the resilience of the U.S. economy is still quite good. The decline in the labor force in November is likely a short-term phenomenon, but it also leads the market to expect that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates significantly in 2026.

However, after the change of the Federal Reserve chairman in 2026, the market has not yet begun to price this in. We still need to observe the internal coordination of the Federal Reserve. The June interest rate meeting may be the most important one this year. Nevertheless, the market itself expects that the Federal Reserve will only have two rate cuts in 2026, so today's data is not considered bearish; instead, it has increased the strength of the U.S. economy, which aligns with what I said yesterday about good and bad data both being good data.

Additionally, the main event today was supposed to be the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, but it has been postponed to January 14. It is highly likely that the Supreme Court will not support Trump's tariffs, but the Trump team has already thought of alternative plans. Overall, the market is still relatively normal at the moment.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the turnover has slightly increased, which is around normal levels. After New Year's Day, both the turnover rate and trading volume have seen a slight rise. Previously, it felt like we were entering a garbage time, but now it doesn't seem that way. Although there has been some deviation from the trend of U.S. stocks, with the rise of U.S. stocks, the price of $BTC has risen from the previous fluctuation range of $88,000 to the fluctuation range of $90,000.

Starting tomorrow, it will be the weekend. Although Bitcoin seems to be struggling to climb, it has not temporarily fallen below $90,000, indicating that there is at least currently a consensus among investors regarding $90,000. The current focus is still on U.S. monetary policy, and as long as there are no surprises over the weekend, it should be fine.

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