Author: BlockWeeks
There has always been a silent consensus among everyone regarding the two major cryptocurrency data platforms: CoinMarketCap (CMC) is the "traffic empire" belonging to Binance, while CoinGecko is the "independent lighthouse" of the community.
However, as Moelis & Company traverses Wall Street and Silicon Valley with a $500 million bid, this last lighthouse seems ready to extinguish. For those who witnessed CoinGecko's rise from a desk in Kuala Lumpur in 2014, this is not just a merger; it is a pause in the cryptocurrency data sector's transition from the "grassroots era" to the "capital harvesting period."
If this deal goes through, it will echo the 2020 sale of CMC, together defining two distinctly different eras of cryptocurrency data infrastructure.
1. $500 Million: Is it a Premium or the Last Escape?
According to multiple media reports, CoinGecko is seeking to sell for a valuation of $500 million. At first glance, this is only 25% higher than the rumored $400 million when Binance acquired CMC in 2020. Considering the inflation of the dollar over the past five years and the expansion of the cryptocurrency market, this price does not seem expensive, and may even appear somewhat conservative.
But we need to peel back the surface of the data to see its essence.
Currently, CoinGecko is facing a serious "traffic shrinkage" crisis. According to SimilarWeb data, CoinGecko's monthly visits have dropped from 43.5 million in 2024 to 18.5 million in December 2025. This is not because CoinGecko has done anything wrong, but because the times have changed:
AI's Dimensionality Reduction Impact: Users no longer need to manually click on websites to check "ETH today's price"; they directly ask ChatGPT or SearchGPT.
Trading Entry Points Preceded: Wallets and DEX aggregators have integrated market data, so users no longer need to visit aggregation sites.
Therefore, this $500 million is not buying a "traffic entry point" (like the former CMC), but rather a "data gold mine." CoinGecko possesses the cleanest API data in the industry, the most comprehensive long-tail token library, and the most rigorous exchange trust scores.
If CMC sold "eyeballs," then CoinGecko sells "brains." This $500 million is a pricing for its role as industry infrastructure rather than a media platform.
2. Echoes of History: 2020 CMC vs. 2026 CoinGecko
Rewinding the clock to 2020, when Zhao Changpeng (CZ) announced the acquisition of CMC, the community was in an uproar, worried about the objectivity of the data being compromised. Now, comparing these two sales, we can clearly see the dramatic shift in industry logic:
First, the core driving forces are fundamentally different.
Binance's acquisition of CMC in 2020 was essentially a "land grab for traffic." At that time, exchanges needed CMC's massive retail traffic as a "funnel" to convert viewers into traders. In contrast, the sale of CoinGecko in 2026 resembles a "compliance harvesting of data." In the current era dominated by ETFs and institutions, potential buyers (whether traditional finance or compliance giants) no longer merely crave retail eyeballs; they desire high-quality, clean data assets that can feed quantitative funds and AI models.
Second, the market environment has undergone a sea change.
When CMC was sold, the industry was at the tail end of the "Wild West" and on the eve of DeFi Summer, with retail enthusiasm rampant and data manipulation widespread.
Now, as CoinGecko chooses to exit, the industry has entered the era of "institutional stock game." Regulatory tightening, compliance above all, and the squeezed survival space for grassroots platforms have forced "independence" to bow to "capitalization."
Finally, the fate of the founders has come full circle.
The founder of CMC, Brandon Chez, was enigmatic and completely withdrew after the deal; whereas CoinGecko's founders, Bobby Ong and TM Lee, after a 12-year marathon, chose the most rational "retirement after success." This is not only a realization of personal wealth but also the last tribute of classical Web2 crypto entrepreneurs to the era.
3. Who Will Be the Buyer? Three Possible Outcomes
CoinGecko's "independence" is its greatest asset, but also its biggest burden after the sale. Who buys it will determine its future:
Outcome A: Exchange Giants (e.g., OKX, Coinbase)
- Probability: Low. Regulatory pressure is immense. Coinbase does not need to buy a declining traffic website for data, and if an offshore exchange acquires it, CoinGecko would lose the trust of institutional clients in Europe and the U.S.
Outcome B: Traditional Financial Data Providers (e.g., Bloomberg, Morningstar)
- Probability: Medium. This would be a perfect complement. Traditional finance craves crypto-native data, and CoinGecko's API business could seamlessly integrate with Bloomberg terminals. However, this would make CoinGecko "boring" and expensive.
Outcome C: Crypto Asset Management or Payment Giants (e.g., BlackRock affiliates, Circle)
- Probability: High. They need to control pricing and data sources, and would not create direct conflicts of interest like exchanges would.
4. Farewell to the Independent Era
BlockWeeks has repeatedly recommended CoinGecko to newcomers, with the reason always being: "Use CoinGecko because they do not issue tokens and have not been acquired by an exchange."
If this $500 million deal goes through, this reason will no longer exist.
CoinGecko's search for a sale is not just a financial victory for the two founders, Bobby and TM, but also the curtain call for the Web2 era of cryptocurrency data aggregation models. In an AI-driven future, perhaps we will no longer need a centralized website to display prices; data will flow like water in the backend of all applications.
Even if CoinGecko sells itself, it does so with dignity. It maintained restraint in the noisiest of times and held its ground in the most challenging bear market. Now, it simply chooses to pass the baton to capital at the most appropriate twilight.
We cannot help but sigh, in this industry, living long is not as good as selling accurately. CMC sold at the start of a bull market to gain traffic, while CoinGecko sells on the eve of AI to gain valuation. This may be the best outcome.
For users, please cherish CoinGecko, which still maintains neutrality; for the industry, please prepare for a new world without a "third-party referee."
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