From January 19 to 20, East 8 Time, the publicly traded company MicroStrategy (MSTR) disclosed that it has made significant purchases in the past two weeks, accumulating approximately 36,000 BTC to bring its total holdings to over 700,000 BTC for the first time, reaching 709,715 BTC. Based on current prices, this position has a market value of approximately $64.736 billion, with an average cost basis of about $75,979 per BTC, resulting in an unrealized gain of approximately $10.813 billion. This constitutes an exceptionally large single asset exposure on the company's balance sheet. More controversially, during a period of significant price volatility, MSTR chose to buy 22,305 BTC at an average price of $95,284 per BTC, continuing to bet heavily at prices close to potential peak levels. This action, along with discussions around "milestone holding size," "funding and valuation signals," and "implications for the market and ordinary investors," is becoming one of the most controversial examples in the era of Bitcoin treasury management.

The Concentrated Chip Effect of the 700,000 BTC Milestone

● According to disclosed data, MSTR currently holds a total of 709,715 BTC, making it the first publicly traded company to exceed 700,000 BTC in holdings. With Bitcoin's fixed issuance cap of 21 million BTC as a reference, this position represents a significant share of global supply, entering the realm of "extremely high weight for a single institution." While it is difficult to provide an exact percentage without external on-chain statistics, the fact of being a "super holder" is very clear.
● Historically, MSTR's previous peak holding was 687,410 BTC (noted in the report as historical data from 2025). This latest increase of approximately 36,000 BTC marks the company's official transition from the "600,000+" tier to the "700,000+" tier. It is important to emphasize that 687,410 BTC was merely a historical inflection point and should not be misinterpreted as the current level; the disclosed 709,715 BTC is the latest valid figure.
● The third-party statistical platform BitcoinTreasuries considers MSTR to be "one of the largest institutional holders of Bitcoin," with its balance sheet almost entirely dominated by BTC. This "treasury company" attribute has become a core label in its capital market narrative, moving beyond being just a traditional software company.
● In terms of market structure, such a high concentration of chips in a single publicly traded company cannot be ignored regarding its potential impact on Bitcoin's spot liquidity and chip distribution:
● The BTC available for free circulation in the secondary market is further "locked up," with marginal new selling pressure coming more from miners and other holders;
● When MSTR clearly states its intention to hold long-term or even continue to increase its holdings, this portion of chips is unlikely to return to the market in the foreseeable future, objectively reinforcing expectations of "tightening circulation";
● If the company faces operational, regulatory, or financing pressures and is forced to reduce its BTC holdings, it could create concentrated selling pressure dominated by a single entity at specific points in time, significantly disturbing prices.

Aggressive Betting at the High Price of $95,000

Among the approximately 36,000 BTC purchases in the past two weeks, the most noteworthy was last week's high-priced buy: MSTR directly increased its holdings by 22,305 BTC at an average price of $95,284 per BTC, amounting to tens of billions of dollars, moving away from the early years' "bottom-fishing" impression and resembling a continued offensive in a highly mature, volatile range. The gap between this action and the overall holding cost is crucial; currently, the comprehensive cost basis for the company's 709,715 BTC is $75,979 per BTC, indicating that the latest large purchase is significantly above the historical diluted cost, slightly pushing up the overall cost but not altering its overall "deeply profitable" pattern. Considering the current price range and historical trends, this proactive increase at high levels can be interpreted as a continuation of a long-term asset allocation strategy—viewing BTC as a core reserve asset on the company's balance sheet—or as an aggressive bet with leveraged characteristics: under conditions of substantial unrealized gains and sufficient safety margins, continuing to enlarge the position to amplify returns when future trends move upward. It should also be noted that the report clearly states that among the approximately 36,000 BTC purchases, 13,627 BTC's specific transaction time and average price have yet to be disclosed, and this information is pending verification. Therefore, qualitative judgments can only be made based on the publicly available interval rhythm, and no monetary or price deductions can be made regarding these undisclosed transaction details.

Time Dividend of Over $10 Billion in Unrealized Gains

From a financial perspective, MSTR's 709,715 BTC corresponds to a market value of approximately $64.736 billion at current prices, compared to an overall cost of about $53.923 billion (709,715 × $75,979 per BTC), resulting in an unrealized gain of approximately $10.813 billion, a figure that matches the total market capitalization of many mid-sized publicly traded companies. Tracing the formation path of this unrealized gain reveals Michael Saylor's cost advantage from earlier accumulation periods: repeatedly acquiring at price levels of $20,000, $30,000, or even lower, allows for subsequent high-priced purchases at $50,000, $70,000, or even $90,000 to still be diluted by historical holdings. The third-party tracking tool Saylortracker views this $10.8 billion level of unrealized gain as a typical case of "early layout time dimension dividend," particularly emphasizing the compound effect of time span and multiple rounds of accumulation, rather than a single instance of hitting a low point. Such a massive unrealized profit provides MSTR with a clear "safety cushion" for continued accumulation: on one hand, the company's tolerance for price pullbacks has been significantly raised; even if Bitcoin's price experiences a substantial decline, the overall holdings still have considerable buffer space; on the other hand, in the capital market, a portfolio that remains in a state of large unrealized gains enhances the company's ability to refinance through methods such as issuing stocks or convertible bonds, making the path of "continuing to exchange capital market funds for BTC" more accessible. Compared to many ordinary institutions or latecomers who entered at high levels, MSTR's differences in cost structure and risk tolerance are striking: the former faces tighter stop-loss pressures with each new price high, while the latter, due to the low cost of early holdings and the cushion of unrealized gains, possesses a longer time perspective and higher volatility tolerance. This first-mover advantage will be continuously amplified over the long term.

MSTR Premium and mNAV Reflecting Market Expectations

In terms of secondary market pricing, two widely watched indicators are MSTR-BTC premium of approximately 0.86 and mNAV of approximately 1.11. In simple terms, the former can be seen as "the relative price relationship of buying indirectly held BTC with MSTR stock compared to buying BTC directly," while the latter is the multiple of MSTR's stock price relative to its "adjusted net asset value" calculated based on its net holdings. If 1 is used as the baseline for "fully priced according to net holdings," a value of 0.86 typically indicates a discount or relative cheapness, while a value of 1.11 suggests that the market is willing to pay a certain premium above net value. The current level indicates that investors are not simply pricing MSTR on a one-to-one basis with BTC's spot price but are pricing in multiple factors: including whether the company will continue to increase its BTC holdings, the potential long-term upward space for Bitcoin, and the company's operational capabilities and financing channels. For some investors, MSTR embodies both the attributes of a "Bitcoin ETF-like asset" and a "growth stock," which to some extent explains its mNAV being above 1. At the same time, this creates potential "arbitrage opportunities and risks" between Bitcoin's spot price and MSTR's stock price: when the divergence between the two increases, there is theoretically space to capture the price difference by going long on one side and short on the other. However, in reality, such trading must simultaneously face the dual volatility of the stock market and the crypto market, as well as additional variables such as regulation, liquidity, and financing costs. It is worth noting that the aforementioned premium and mNAV data are derived from Michael Saylor's disclosures and third-party tool cross-verification, essentially being dynamic indicators that fluctuate in real-time with market prices, rather than static metrics. Any valuation judgments and trading decisions based on these indicators must accept the premise of their rapid changes with market conditions.

Horizontal Comparison of Bitmine's "Same Scale, Different Fate"

In discussions of treasury asset allocation, another extreme example is Bitmine (BMNR). According to the report data, Bitmine holds approximately 4.2 million ETH, yet at current prices, it records an unrealized loss of about $3.232 billion, contrasting sharply with MSTR's billion-dollar unrealized gains. Both represent concentrated exposure of "large-scale single crypto assets" on company balance sheets, but the outcomes are entirely different. Analyzing the performance of the assets and the timing of entry reveals critical divergence in the trajectories of Bitcoin and Ethereum at different stages: over the past several cycles, Bitcoin has often exhibited stronger "digital gold" properties during phases of institutional adoption, halving narratives, and macro risk aversion, while Ethereum has more often carried growth expectations related to technological iterations and ecological applications, making it more sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. On the other hand, the differences in the cost structures of the two companies' holdings are also significant: MSTR accumulated BTC earlier at lower price levels, maintaining an overall cost advantage during subsequent high-level purchases; Bitmine, however, entered at higher levels or failed to effectively lower its overall cost during volatility, leading to a rapid transition to deep unrealized losses after price declines. This comparison highlights that the success or failure of "treasury asset allocation" largely depends on the judgment of cycles, the choice of entry timing, and cost management capabilities, rather than simply "the larger the scale, the safer." From a market perception perspective, MSTR has been assigned a premium label as a "high Beta asset in Bitcoin" due to its demonstrated path control and risk tolerance through multiple cycles of crypto bull and bear markets, while Bitmine, under pressure from unrealized losses and uncertainty about future paths, is more likely to be under strain, reflecting a market preference for "clear paths and robust risk control" far exceeding mere faith in "large positions."

The Experimental Field of the Treasury Era and the Investor's Dilemma

In summary, MSTR's holdings have surpassed 700,000 BTC, with an unrealized gain of over $10.813 billion, and during a period of high volatility, it has continued to accumulate at an average price level of $95,000, signaling a clear message: within its corporate governance and capital operation framework, Bitcoin is viewed as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term speculative position that can be adjusted at will. This highly concentrated treasury model is also shaping a new risk-return structure for the company itself: the correlation between stock price fluctuations and Bitcoin prices is significantly amplified, the company's financing ability may be enhanced during bull markets due to asset inflation, but it could also suffer during bear markets due to asset shrinkage and deteriorating market sentiment. Over the long term, the shareholder structure may gradually tilt towards investors who recognize the long-term logic of Bitcoin, forming a more homogeneous shareholder group. Looking ahead, key variables influencing the direction of this model include: the price path and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin itself, changes in regulatory attitudes towards companies holding large amounts of crypto assets, and whether more publicly traded companies will choose to incorporate BTC into their treasury or even core asset allocation—whether this will result in a "few extreme samples" or evolve into a broader corporate asset allocation practice remains to be seen. For ordinary investors, understanding and utilizing the popular narrative of "buying MSTR is equivalent to buying Bitcoin" warrants caution: MSTR's stock price not only reflects BTC price fluctuations but also incorporates multiple company-specific risks such as operational conditions, financing costs, and management decisions. In times of extreme liquidity contraction or changes in the company's fundamentals, these risks may resonate and amplify alongside declines in Bitcoin prices. Distinguishing between "the risk of the asset itself" and "the risk of the company holding the asset," and making decisions on position size and target selection based on this, may be a fundamental task that every investor cannot avoid in the era of treasury management.

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