Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown a typical pattern of rising and then falling, prompting investors to pay attention to the sustainability of the market. Bitcoin once surged strongly from around $89,000, approaching a six-month high of nearly $97,000, but failed to effectively hold the resistance zone; subsequently, the market quickly retraced in the early morning of January 19, breaking below the $92,000 support. This trend seems to constitute a "false breakout," but it is noteworthy that the retracement did not trigger large-scale profit-taking on-chain— the average realized profit over the past seven days was about $184 million, significantly narrowing from over $1 billion daily in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting that while market sentiment has turned cautious, it has not formed systemic selling pressure, and the overall structure remains stable.

Macroeconomic Landscape: From "Interest Rate as the Sole Driver" to "Interest Rate + Geopolitical Factors"

The current market influences are becoming complex. On the macro level, beyond the "interest rate path," new factors such as "geopolitical noise and tariffs" have emerged. Recent comments by former President Trump regarding the ownership of Greenland and tariffs on Europe have raised global risk premiums, making it easier for risk assets to fluctuate in sync in the short term. Meanwhile, against the backdrop of a 2.7% year-on-year CPI in December, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates in the January meeting, but the market is still speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in March. Overall, the macro environment has shifted from "purely focusing on interest rates" to "driven by both interest rates and geopolitical factors," with the baseline scenario still being "high interest rates continue, and rate cut expectations remain flexible," which impacts the cryptocurrency market more in terms of increased volatility rather than directly initiating a one-sided easing trend.

Capital and Chips: Incremental Capital Waiting to Enter, Supply Structure Continues to Improve

The capital side shows positive signals. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see significant net inflows, and stablecoins are showing a trend of issuance, injecting potential liquidity into the market. At the same time, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges remains low, with addresses holding 10–1000 BTC showing a net increase, indicating that chips are gradually concentrating among long-term holders. For Ethereum, the staking rate is approaching 30%, and circulating supply is further contracting, forming intrinsic support in the medium term. These factors together create a pattern of "reduced sellable chips + incremental capital waiting," allowing the market to show strong support during the retracement process.

Technical Structure: Intense Competition at Key Levels, Waiting for Directional Choice Amidst Fluctuations

From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin needs to pay attention to $92,000 as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If the daily close fails to reclaim this level, the support below will sequentially focus on $90,000 and the $88,000–$89,000 area— the latter corresponds to a previous cost-intensive zone and value center, where strong buying support is expected. Above, it first faces resistance at $95,000 (which has turned into resistance), with stronger resistance located in the $98,000–$102,000 liquidity-rich zone, and the round number of $100,000 remains an important psychological and technical pressure point, with the breakthrough process likely accompanied by multiple fluctuations.

Ethereum is still oscillating in the $3,100–$3,300 range, with $3,250–$3,350 as the key resistance area; an effective breakthrough here could open up upward space. Below, it needs to hold above $3,100; if it breaks below, it may revisit the $2,850–$2,900 structural support area.

Strategy Outlook: Maintain Flexibility, Capture Structural Opportunities Amidst Volatility

In summary, the short-term volatility in the cryptocurrency market is amplified by macro uncertainties and technical resistance, but the mid-term logic remains intact: continuous capital inflow, improving supply structure, and sustained confidence among long-term holders, all of which support the market's resilience during retracements. Investors should maintain strategic flexibility at this stage:

Neutral Oscillation: FCN/dual-currency financial products, selling volatility to obtain stable coupon income.

Bullish on Dips: Discounted Accumulator, gradually increasing positions on dips, setting knockout prices to control chasing risks.

Bearish or Hedging Reduction: Decumulator/call options, gradually reducing holdings in a premium environment.

Need Liquidity Without Chasing Margin: Non-margin financing, obtaining liquidity at low interest, avoiding margin call risks.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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