Fundamentals suggest volatility is mispriced.

When implied volatility (IV) trades significantly below our fair value estimate while Bitcoin sits at all time highs, material drawdowns have followed.

The most recent trigger fired in late October, four days before the mass liquidation event.

The inverse also holds. Periods when IV is extremely overvalued relative to fair value have historically been strong buying opportunities.

Leading indicators suggest volatility is mispriced and biased higher.

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