Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
On January 20, Strategy disclosed that it had increased its holdings by 22,305 bitcoins, valued at approximately $2.13 billion. This is the largest single increase for Strategy since 2025.
In recent months, Strategy's stock price has continued to decline from its peak of $457, with a drop of nearly 200%. Doubts surrounding Strategy have also intensified. From high leverage and refinancing capabilities to the transmission mechanism of bitcoin price fluctuations to stock prices, almost all negative logic has been revisited. Especially after mNAV fell below 1, the voices predicting the decline of MSTR have been incessant.
Among these doubts, a widely circulated article titled "Federal Reserve vs. Treasury: The Currency War Behind the Bitcoin Crash" even likened Strategy to a "bitcoin central bank," suggesting that it is caught in a game between the traditional financial system (Federal Reserve, Wall Street, JPMorgan) and the emerging system (Treasury, stablecoins, bitcoin collateral financing), accusing institutions like JPMorgan of systematically shorting MSTR through delayed settlements and options market suppression.
At the same time, index provider MSCI has signaled that it may remove MSTR from its index. If this happens, it could theoretically trigger a passive sell-off of about $8.8 billion; Strategy's own calculations also indicate that in extreme cases, it could trigger $2.8 billion in stock liquidation.
Panic seems to be escalating… As the market worries about whether it will "sell bitcoin" or "refinance again," Strategy has chosen to embody the label of a steadfast believer in bitcoin with the clearest and most powerful stance.
The bottom is not a price, but a moment when a behavior begins to appear
In an article published by Odaily Planet Daily on December 3 titled "14.4 Billion Dollar Dividend Reserve Launched, Stock Price Plummets 10%, What Are Strategy's Real Issues?," it was pointed out that Strategy's highly concentrated asset structure, reliance on capital market refinancing, and valuation model deeply tied to bitcoin prices are its intrinsic genes. Because of this, when market trends reverse, these structural characteristics do not "suddenly fail," but rather amplify volatility in a more intense manner. The rapid decline in price will, in turn, reinforce the pessimistic narrative, causing risks to be continuously magnified and discussed on an emotional level.
Therefore, when almost everyone is extremely bearish and the news is all negative, it often means that bad news may be getting digested, or has already been digested. This is also why Buffett's saying, "I am greedy when others are fearful," is often quoted.
Thus, what the market truly deserves to observe is not whether these negatives are valid, but whether, at the most extreme emotional state, when bad news still exists, there are already "lone warriors" in the market choosing to go long on MSTR?
The answer is: Yes, and not just one type.
Vanguard: Institutional Funds Begin to Intervene
Vanguard is one of the largest asset management companies in the world, managing over $12 trillion in assets. Since the beginning of 2026, two of its index funds have disclosed purchases of MSTR, totaling approximately $707.5 million.
It is important to emphasize that this does not actively express a bullish stance, as most of Vanguard's assets are automatically adjusted based on changes in index constituents, meaning that the current purchases may stem from passive index tracking demand.
On January 20, the Vanguard Value Index Fund (VVIAX) disclosed its first purchase of MSTR stock, totaling 1.23 million shares, valued at approximately $202.5 million. This is a value index fund that focuses on undervalued large-cap stocks, with core selection criteria including lower price-to-earnings ratios, price-to-book ratios, and higher dividend yields.
A similar situation occurred in another mid-cap index fund, the Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund Institutional Shares (VMCIX). This fund disclosed its purchase of 2.91 million shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $505 million. The continuous growth in MSTR's market capitalization has made it eligible for inclusion in the mid-cap index, necessitating the fund to increase its holdings to match index weight.
Overall, Vanguard's two purchases are likely more a result of index fund tracking behavior rather than active investment. However, it is precisely in this "non-opinionated" influx of funds that a key change is occurring: MSTR is being institutionally incorporated into the traditional asset allocation system, becoming a compliant risk vehicle for bitcoin.
Pension Funds' Experimentation: Signals Behind Small Positions
In the more conservative pension fund sector, the Louisiana State Employees’ Retirement System (LASERS) disclosed on December 31, 2025, that it held 17,900 shares of MSTR, valued at approximately $3.1 million, accounting for 0.02% of its approximately $16 billion in assets.
This is not an aggressive allocation; it can even be said that the position is extremely small.
However, LASERS is the retirement system for public employees in Louisiana, managing the retirement assets of over 100,000 state employees (including teachers and other public workers), with a total scale of approximately $15.6 billion. The fund's investment portfolio is primarily concentrated in large U.S. tech stocks, such as NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet. In such an investment portfolio, the appearance of MSTR can be seen as: indirectly gaining bitcoin exposure through publicly listed companies is being viewed as a discussable and exploratory option by some state-level public funds. Although LASERS' holdings in MSTR are small, they reflect a cautious yet initial interest in crypto assets.
When Actively Managed Funds Choose to Stand on the Other Side
Unlike passive index funds, the choices of actively managed funds are closer to direct judgments of risk and return.
By the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the globally renowned quantitative trading and market-making firm Jane Street Group disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 51.72%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 11.0588 million to 16.7784 million, while also holding large-scale call option positions.
In the same quarter, Capital International Investors also disclosed that its MSTR holdings increased by 713.07%, with the number of shares rising from approximately 1.5589 million to 12.6749 million.
Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that his core trading strategy for this quarter is to go long on Strategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, using them as high-leverage tools to bet on bitcoin trends.
Several asset management companies, including Bernstein, TD Cowen, and The Benchmark Company, continue to maintain buy ratings on MSTR. For instance, TD Cowen stated that although short-term yields are under pressure, related indicators are expected to improve as bitcoin prices recover.
Finally
CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten has proposed a noteworthy perspective: in this cycle, Strategy (MSTR) has borne about 75% of the drawdown, allowing bitcoin itself to avoid experiencing a similar magnitude of decline, as volatility has shifted from spot bitcoin to MSTR common stock.
At the same time, Michael Saylor's large-scale stock issuance at around 1x mNAV has actually acted as the final risk bearer. In this valuation range, the new incoming risks are transferred to investors willing to buy MSTR at that price level, rather than continuing to press on the spot bitcoin market, thus somewhat suppressing the formation of a bear market.
The significance of this perspective lies in its redefinition of the relationship between MSTR and bitcoin. MSTR is no longer just a high-leverage reflection of bitcoin, but is gradually evolving into an intermediary layer that carries, transmits, and releases bitcoin volatility within the current market structure. Due to its stock having higher liquidity, a mature short-selling mechanism, and a rich array of options tools, when market risk appetite declines, investors may prefer to express their risk judgments on bitcoin by selling or hedging MSTR rather than directly selling spot bitcoin.
Of course, those institutions and individuals choosing to go long on MSTR may not necessarily be correct. But their existence is worth serious observation. Because the structural bottom of the market often does not emerge after emotional improvement, but rather at a moment when emotions are still extreme, yet someone has chosen to take contrary action.
In this phase, observing investor behavior on MSTR is also observing how they view the risks, expectations, and cyclical positions of bitcoin.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
