This week, a report from Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 year-end gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, sparking a new round of discussions in global asset allocation. In this context, the U.S. market saw a net outflow of $707.3 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a net outflow of $283.46 million from Ethereum ETFs in a single day, contrasting sharply with the "strengthening expectations" for gold. The key question for the market is whether institutions are gradually shifting their chips from high-volatility crypto assets to relatively certain gold and interest rate assets. The following will provide structural observations and judgments on current funding preferences, focusing on central bank gold purchase data, ETF fund flows, and micro cases such as Mezo, Solana Mobile, and SKR.
Goldman Sachs Bullish on $5,400: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Increased Allocation Weight
● Logic and Uncertainty of the Revised Forecast: Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, primarily citing rising global economic and geopolitical risks, expectations of peak real interest rates, and the need for asset allocation rebalancing. This price target currently comes from a single source, indicating it represents a scenario assumption from one investment bank rather than a market consensus, and investors should be aware of the significant uncertainties in model assumptions, inflation paths, and monetary policy outcomes.
● Significance of Central Banks Purchasing an Average of 60 Tons of Gold Monthly: Forecast data suggests that by 2026, global central banks' average monthly gold purchases are expected to reach 60 tons (single source), continuing the trend of official sectors accumulating gold in recent years. This pace indicates that official reserve managers have not slowed their accumulation due to short-term price fluctuations; rather, in an environment of rising dollar credit cycles, geopolitical friction, and sanction risks, they view gold as a reserve asset that does not rely on third-party credit, providing a deeper "policy floor" for gold prices through sustained buying.
● Logic of Diversified Allocation by Emerging Market Central Banks: Goldman Sachs analysts point out that "emerging market central banks will continue to structurally diversify their reserves from other assets into gold." This includes a reassessment of the actual yields and credit risks of traditional reserve assets like government bonds, as well as an increased demand for cross-cycle and cross-sanction risk assets amid a trend of fragmented settlement systems. The result is a passive increase in gold's weight in global reserves and major asset allocations, reinforcing its role as a "no-default-risk reserve asset."
● Signals of Preference from Central Banks and Institutions: When both official entities and some institutions increase their gold positions, the market easily interprets this as a "vote of no confidence" in high-valued risk assets. A more cautious perspective is that this resembles a rebalancing of portfolios from equities and high-beta assets to defensive assets in a high-interest, high-uncertainty cycle. For the crypto market, this rebalancing does not necessarily imply a systemic sell-off but rather a pricing discount for assets with higher valuation elasticity and lacking cash flow support, with funding requirements for risk-return ratios quietly adjusting upward.
Nearly $1 Billion Outflow from ETFs in One Day: A Turning Point in Crypto Funding Behavior
● Nearly $1 Billion in Single-Day Outflows: According to briefing data, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $707.3 million in a single day, while the Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $283.46 million, totaling close to $1 billion (single source). Such a scale of simultaneous net outflow stands out against a backdrop of long-term net inflows, and combined with the narrative of gold's revised target price, interpretations of "crypto funds retreating to traditional safe havens" quickly gained traction.
● Profit-Taking or Macro Repricing: This round of capital outflow can be partially interpreted as ETF holders choosing to take profits after a previous round of increases, locking in paper gains with liquidity; another part reflects investors reassessing the discount rates and risk premiums of crypto assets after reevaluating macro and institutional variables such as inflation resilience, interest rate paths, and regulatory scrutiny. At a time of high macro uncertainty, even slightly negative signals can trigger passive and trend-following funds to reduce their positions simultaneously.
● Comparison with Previous Periods of Net Inflows: Earlier, spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs attracted sustained net inflows, driving the narrative of an "institutional bull market," with many following funds viewing ETFs as convenient exposure tools to crypto. In contrast, when significant net outflows occur in a single day, it indicates that some funds' confidence in "blindly going long on crypto" has weakened, shifting behavior from one-way allocation to a focus on swing trading and risk budget management, marking an important turning point in funding style from greed to caution.
● Passive Selling and Emotional Amplification Effects: ETF share redemptions mean that the underlying spot or derivative positions need to be passively reduced, and such "passive selling" can significantly amplify price volatility in the spot market when liquidity is not abundant. Additionally, outflow data can quickly spread on social media and news platforms, triggering leveraged long positions to reduce and follow-on sell-offs, creating a negative feedback loop of price decline—capital withdrawal—emotional deterioration, amplifying volatility in the short term beyond what the absolute scale of capital outflow can explain.
Gold and Crypto: A Tug of War? Structural Choices Under Rebalancing
● Fundamental Differences in Asset Attributes: The core characteristic of gold is safe-haven and no-default risk, with its value primarily derived from long-term consensus, limited supply, and its historical role as a reserve asset, exhibiting relatively mild volatility. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum resemble high-elasticity, high-beta risk assets, with prices highly sensitive to liquidity, risk appetite, and technological narratives, amplifying profit margins during upswings and similarly magnifying drawdowns during downturns, requiring higher funding style and risk management capabilities.
● Cross-Asset Rebalancing Paths Under Data: Central banks are expected to maintain a monthly average of 60 tons of gold purchases by 2026, while crypto ETFs are experiencing nearly $1 billion in single-day net outflows, superficially presenting a picture of gold and crypto's tug of war. A more prudent interpretation is that some institutions and medium- to long-term funds are rebalancing their cross-asset portfolios based on interest rates and volatility environments: reducing the weight of high-volatility assets and increasing gold and high-grade bonds as "safe assets." This represents a relative change in allocation that cannot simply be summarized as an "escape" from crypto or a "bet everything" on gold.
● Impact of Policy and Central Bank Digital Currency Background: In some economies advancing central bank digital currencies and stricter regulatory frameworks, institutions face rising compliance costs and uncertainties when allocating crypto assets, while gold, as a traditional reserve and investment product, is often viewed as more "neutral" and acceptable in policy contexts. This difference in institutional and regulatory expectations subtly influences institutions' relative preferences between gold and crypto, making gold a more natural defensive option during periods of policy uncertainty.
● Phase Judgment: Defensive Reallocation Rather Than Full Exit: Considering the trends in central bank gold purchases and ETF fund outflows, the more accurate judgment at present is that institutions are engaging in defensive reallocation rather than a full exit from crypto assets. In a phase where high interest rates have not yet clearly peaked and policy directions are wavering, increasing the weight of low-correlated assets like gold can smooth portfolio volatility without completely abandoning the long-term narrative of crypto. This rebalancing preserves options for future re-entry into crypto assets, rather than closing the door.
Mezo and Solana Mobile: New On-Chain Entry and Stock Game
● Mezo Token Distribution Data and Information Sources: According to the briefing, the total supply of Mezo tokens is 1 billion, with 40% allocated to the community, and the relevant data also comes from a single source, which has not yet been widely publicly verified. Such a high proportion of community allocation reflects the project's emphasis on "decentralization" and user participation at the narrative level, but the specific release pace, lock-up arrangements, and actual distribution paths will directly impact the market's judgment on its fair valuation and short-term liquidity.
● High Community Allocation's Impact on Market Structure: When 40% of the supply is allocated to the community, it is easier to form a broad holding + high speculative activity pattern in the early stages, facilitating relatively ample orders and transaction depth on exchanges and on-chain, enhancing price discovery efficiency. However, if the allocation is overly concentrated among a few early participants or airdrop hunters, it may lead to concentrated selling pressure in the short term, amplifying price volatility and creating a typical speculative cycle of "getting in—dumping—deep correction," requiring investors to be cautious of the underlying game in the circulation structure.
● Solana Mobile as an Entry Point for Capital Migration: The new projects and hardware entry in the Solana Mobile ecosystem provide a vehicle for capital to access Solana's on-chain applications with lower barriers. From gaming and social to DeFi tools, the combination of mobile wallets and hardware terminals can promote the migration of some active funds from other public chains or centralized trading platforms to the Solana ecosystem at the user experience level. This migration is currently more reflected in on-chain activity and local asset premiums rather than changing the total amount of capital in the entire crypto market.
● New Narrative Attractiveness Amid Macro Tightening and Gold Strength: In an environment of macro funding tightening and gold strengthening, the "new narratives" like Mezo and Solana Mobile have relatively limited appeal to incremental funds, relying more on the rotation game of existing funds among different tracks and projects. In other words, they can attract attention and boost local valuations in the short term but are unlikely to change the overarching trend of institutions leaning towards defense in major asset classes, merely providing new stories and trading targets for the funds still in the crypto market.
SKR Soars 340% in One Day: New Listings and Emotional Tension
● Key Increase and Market Cap Figures: The briefing shows that on a certain trading day, SKR's price increased by over 340%, with its market cap briefly surpassing $600 million, and on January 22, SKR's intraday increase also reached 313%, with a market cap of approximately $257 million, all sourced from a single channel. In a context of cautious macro funding and significant net outflows from mainstream crypto ETFs, such extreme single-coin price increases present a stark contrast, highlighting that high volatility opportunities still exist at the micro level in the crypto market.
● Catalytic Effect of Listing on Bithumb: Market views generally believe that "the listing of SKR's Korean won trading pair on Bithumb may drive its price surge." Large local exchanges often bring local fiat entry, improved compliance expectations, and market-making resources, allowing previously liquidity-constrained assets to gain deeper buy and sell orders and broader investor attention in a short time, significantly amplifying the price's elasticity to positive liquidity shocks.
● Liquidity Improvement and Drawdown Risks: The exchange listing has brought better transaction depth and market-making mechanisms to SKR, helping to narrow spreads and reduce price impacts of individual trades. However, for high-beta small-cap assets, liquidity improvements also mean that emotion-driven chasing and panic selling can become more intense, with prices potentially operating within a wide range of "sharp rise—severe volatility—deep drawdown" in the short term, exposing participants without stop-loss measures or position management to amplified risk.
● Dislocation of Micro Hotspots and Macro Mainline: Placing SKR's extreme price increase back into the broader context of gold strengthening and mainstream crypto ETF fund outflows reveals that micro hotspots do not indicate a reversal in macro funding direction. It is more a concentrated reflection of existing funds seeking short-term gains in high-volatility targets, running parallel to the structural trend of central banks increasing gold holdings and institutions rebalancing major asset positions, but unlikely to have a disruptive impact on overall risk appetite and cross-asset allocation direction.
Cautious Rotation of Funds: Gold Warms Up and Crypto Structure Diverges
● Structural differentiation at the macro level: Overall, on one hand, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price target to $5,400, and central bank gold purchases are expected to maintain an average of 60 tons per month by 2026, indicating a long-term accumulation of gold by officials and institutions; on the other hand, the U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw a combined net outflow of nearly $1 billion in a single day, reflecting a phase withdrawal of crypto exposure within the traditional financial system. Together, these factors outline the current structural differentiation between risk assets and safe-haven assets.
● High-volatility opportunities within crypto still exist: Even as risk appetite becomes cautious at the macro level, high-volatility opportunities such as Mezo's high community allocation, Solana Mobile's new entry, and SKR's single-day surge of over 300% can still be observed within crypto. The price performance of these assets relies more on the rotation of existing funds, event catalysts, and short-term sentiment, rather than a large influx of incremental capital. Essentially, this represents local high elasticity under stock game and information asymmetry, rather than the starting point of a new comprehensive bull market.
● Strategic insights: Seek sectors with low correlation to macro factors or real applications: In an environment where gold is in a strong cycle and macro liquidity is tight, for investors who still wish to maintain participation in the crypto space, one approach is to prioritize sectors that are less correlated with traditional macro volatility or have relatively real application prospects and cash flow, rather than relying solely on assets driven by sentiment and vague narratives. Such assets may perform better under overall risk premium adjustments and align more closely with the current defensive reallocation of funds.
● Risk warnings and information source limitations: It is important to emphasize that the gold price forecasts, central bank gold purchase rhythms, ETF fund flows, and data related to Mezo and SKR mentioned in this article all come from a single source, which may not represent a comprehensive market consensus. Investors should make independent judgments based on multiple sources of information and their own risk tolerance before making decisions, especially in high-volatility and high-leverage scenarios, where it is crucial to pay attention to position control and liquidity risks to avoid misinterpreting localized extreme market conditions as a complete reversal of macro trends.
Join our community to discuss and become stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
OKX benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=l61eM4owQ
Binance benefits group: https://aicoin.com/link/chat?cid=ynr7d1P6Z
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
