This morning I suddenly came across a financial news item:

“Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension will exit the U.S. Treasury market.”

I looked up the details of this news online, and the amount of U.S. Treasury bonds held by this pension fund is only $100 million. Even if they completely liquidate, this scale is negligible relative to the entire market.

However, when this news is viewed in conjunction with a series of recent events, the trend it reveals cannot be overlooked.

What series of events?

One is that Trump has recently been increasingly pressuring to acquire Greenland and threatening to impose tariffs on European countries.

The second is Canadian Prime Minister Carney's visit to China and his subsequent speech at the Davos Forum.

The third is the recent concern expressed by former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong: If the U.S. thinks Greenland is important today and wants it, will it also want the Strait of Malacca in the future if it deems it important?

Many media outlets have already provided detailed interpretations of the implications of Trump's pressure on Greenland at the diplomatic and national levels. What I am more concerned about is the investment aspect—its most direct impact on the investment field is that more and more European foundations will take actual actions similar to that of the Danish pension fund: at least for a period of time, they will exit the U.S. capital market.

Canadian Prime Minister Carney's actions similarly reveal a similar implication.

If his visit to China is interpreted as a sign of Canada gradually distancing itself from the U.S. in certain aspects, then his speech at the Davos Forum openly clarified the attitude of countries like Canada for a considerable period in the future: not only at the national level but also in other areas, including finance, they will gradually distance themselves from the U.S. market.

However, Carney's actions are clearly at a higher level, as he is voicing this as a national representative. This means that at least in the investment market, institutions like those in Europe and Canada are withdrawing from the U.S. capital market.

Lee Hsien Loong's concerns express the enormous uncertainty that the world may face in the future. This uncertainty may first impact U.S. risk assets.

All these events indicate that a new trend, which was previously hard to believe, may have emerged: there are signs of loosening in the existing capital foundation of U.S. assets.

I organized some relevant data using AI tools:

The total amount of U.S. assets held by the EU is over $10 trillion, making it the largest foreign investor in the U.S.

Canada holds approximately $3 trillion in U.S. assets, making it the third-largest foreign investor in the U.S.

Just adding these two amounts together gives $13 trillion.

It is currently difficult to speculate how much of the European and Canadian foundations will exit the U.S. capital market, but this trend will certainly have a significant impact on the capital market for a period of time. The demonstration effect they bring will not only affect themselves but is likely to influence other countries' funds and even domestic U.S. funds.

This scale effect cannot be ignored.

If some of this money leaves the U.S. capital market, the main investment markets it might go to are likely to be gold and the stock markets in Europe and Asia.

As of the time of writing, the total market value of gold is approximately $28 trillion.

The total market value of European stock markets is about $25 trillion.

The total market value of Asian stock markets is approximately $47 trillion.

Based on the above data, I speculate that the volatility of U.S. stocks and bonds this year may be very large, and the effect of funds flowing into gold, European stocks, and Asian stocks will be very evident.

By the way, regarding gold.

I remember writing an article about gold last year in response to a reader's question about whether gold could be bought. My answer at that time was that I definitely would not buy, but I also would not sell.

Now the price of gold is higher than it was then.

However, based on the data and trends organized today, it seems likely that gold will continue to rise. But now that the price is at this level, it is harder to predict how much more it can rise in the future.

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