On January 24, 2026, ARK Invest submitted applications for two cryptocurrency ETFs linked to the CoinDesk 20 Index to regulatory authorities. One is the ARK CoinDesk 20 Crypto ETF that includes Bitcoin, while the other is the ARK CoinDesk 20 ex-Bitcoin Crypto ETF, which excludes Bitcoin. This marks Wall Street's first attempt to package spot assets using a mainstream cryptocurrency index, providing traditional funds with a tool for "one-click purchase of a whole basket of crypto assets," significantly reducing asset selection and decision-making costs. The core contradiction behind this is becoming increasingly clear: more and more traditional institutions wish to include crypto assets in their asset allocation but must do so within a compliant framework that can be audited and explained. This makes "low-threshold, compliant, and explainable" index products the most natural entry point for them.

ARK's Move into Index ETFs: From Active Bets to Basket Allocation

● Product Line Migration: ARK's previous layout in the crypto field was more about indirect exposure to the crypto cycle through spot Bitcoin ETF collaborations, Bitcoin-related equity assets, and high-growth tech stocks, essentially leaning towards an active betting model of "single asset + thematic stocks." This direct shift to covering the CoinDesk 20 basket of assets signifies a transition from "betting on direction and stories" to "betting on sectors and index weights," transforming individual judgments into a structural allocation of mainstream crypto assets as a whole.

● Unified Index Connotation: The CoinDesk 20 Index represents the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, unifying Bitcoin and mainstream altcoins under a single set of rules, allowing investors to gain exposure to the core of the market without needing to study each token's logic individually. For institutions, this method of "covering top assets with a single fund" reconstructs the previously fragmented choice of currencies into an evaluation of index methodology and tracking error, closely aligning with the cognitive framework of traditional asset management.

● First ETF Claim: Some market reports refer to this product as the "first spot cryptocurrency ETF linked to CoinDesk 20," highlighting its innovation and rarity. However, this statement currently comes mainly from a single media source and lacks broader cross-validation, necessitating a cautious attitude. Regardless of whether the "first" label ultimately holds, ARK's choice to use a mainstream index as a vehicle has positioned itself in the narrative as an "institutional entry point" rather than a "speculative tool provider."

A Watershed for Institutions: One ETF Includes BTC, One Excludes BTC

● Core Watershed: Both tracking the CoinDesk 20, one ETF includes a Bitcoin position, while the other completely excludes Bitcoin. This design directly turns "whether to hold BTC" into a watershed at the product level. For compliance committees and investment committees, this adds a quantifiable, controllable BTC switch on top of the "overall crypto exposure," transforming the abstract question of "should we allocate Bitcoin" into an asset allocation option that can be finely dissected by the product.

● Precise Non-BTC Exposure: Market sentiment generally holds that "excluding BTC helps to accurately allocate non-Bitcoin assets." For institutions that already hold Bitcoin spot or Bitcoin ETFs through other channels, the ex-Bitcoin version can be seen as a "pure altcoin basket," allowing them to amplify exposure to Ethereum and other large-cap tokens without overlapping BTC risk. This structural disaggregation separates "Bitcoin risk" and "non-Bitcoin crypto risk" from a mixed package into two independently decision-making modules.

● Combination Usage Logic: In terms of allocation, traditional funds may exhibit two typical uses: one is to use a separate Bitcoin exposure (such as spot BTC or Bitcoin ETF) combined with the CoinDesk 20 ex-Bitcoin ETF, creating a full market exposure through a "core + satellite" approach; the other is for institutions that already view Bitcoin as "digital gold" with limited incremental space, using the ex-BTC product solely as a "yield enhancement layer," adding a yield curve with more volatility premium without changing the existing BTC allocation ratio.

Thresholds Indexed: Rewriting the Path for Traditional Funds

● Choice Dilemma: Under compliant investment processes, traditional institutions face hundreds of tradable tokens, each involving underlying technology, team governance, compliance risks, and liquidity assessments. Research teams need to write auditable reports, risk control must verify whether trading pairs are easily manipulable, and compliance departments must assess regulatory attitudes and holding explanations. This makes the cost of "studying each coin + single coin decision-making" nearly unbearable in a regulated environment, resulting in most institutions only daring to dip their toes into Bitcoin.

● Index Packaging: Index ETFs package token selection, weight adjustments, and periodic rebalancing into a standardized product, compressing the fragmented work previously scattered across research, trading, and risk control departments into a one-time assessment of "index rules + fund operational compliance." ARK's dual ETFs linked to CoinDesk 20 essentially provide a "buying equals completed allocation" procedural entry, significantly lowering the cognitive and operational thresholds for traditional funds entering the crypto market.

● Beyond the "Only Buy BTC" Inertia: When index products become compliant tools, institutions have reason to explain to investment committees: "We are not betting on a specific token, but allocating based on the market capitalization weights of the top 20 cryptocurrencies." This narrative shift is expected to break the path dependence of "only daring to buy BTC," allowing incremental funds to flow more naturally and passively toward leading altcoins. Over time, indices like CoinDesk 20 may be viewed within asset allocation frameworks as "benchmark weights for crypto assets," rather than merely a collection of speculative targets.

Approval Uncertainty Remains: A New Sample from the Regulatory Perspective

● Timeline Absence: As of now, there is no public information from regulatory authorities regarding the approval timeline and probability for these two ETFs, and the market lacks reliable time node guidance. Therefore, the outside world cannot make specific predictions about when or how the products will be launched, nor can it provide hard judgments like "approved before X month"; any numerical predictions fall outside the current information boundaries.

● Existing Concerns Persist: Looking back at the approval process for the previous spot Bitcoin ETF, regulatory focus has always revolved around custodial security, market manipulation risks, and investor protection. On one hand, it is necessary to ensure that on-chain assets have the same level of security and audit standards as traditional assets at the custody end; on the other hand, it must be proven that the target market's depth and dispersion are sufficient to reduce manipulation space. These long-standing concerns will not automatically disappear just because the product shifts from a single coin to an index; they will simply be re-examined under a new structure.

● Evaluation Space from an Index Perspective: Compared to a single asset, using a basket index rather than a single coin brings different evaluation dimensions for regulators. On one hand, the components and weights are publicly transparent, theoretically aiding regulatory assessments of whether the index as a whole is less susceptible to single-point manipulation; on the other hand, a multi-asset structure may introduce new issues, such as whether certain component coins have excessive concentration or insufficient regulatory oversight of trading venues. Overall, indexing does not lower scrutiny standards but opens a new sample for judgment from the perspective of "overall market manipulability."

Triple Signals on the Same Day: Differentiation of On-Chain Assets and Traditional Vehicles

● Price Signal Resonance: On the same day ARK submitted its ETF application, the total market capitalization of tokenized gold surpassed $5 billion, indicating that traditional assets represented by precious metals are being rapidly moved on-chain; meanwhile, U.S. stocks in the blockchain concept sector weakened overall, but MicroStrategy (MSTR) rose against the trend, showing a clear differentiation within traditional equity vehicles. One side sees on-chain assets being re-priced, while the other side experiences a split in stock performance of "on-chain narrative" companies, forming a contrasting picture between traditional and crypto capital markets.

● Financialization and Indexation Trends: Behind these movements lies a deeper trend—on-chain assets are being systematically financialized and indexed, while the "crypto narrative" carried through equity forms is beginning to face re-evaluation of its premium. Tokenized gold indicates that traditional commodities and safe-haven products can be reorganized in on-chain form; ARK's CoinDesk 20 ETF suggests that "a whole basket of crypto assets" can become the underlying of licensed financial products. In contrast, the overall decline of blockchain-themed stocks and MSTR's rise reflects that the market is distinguishing between "storytelling companies" and "vehicles that directly hold on-chain assets."

● Technological Anti-Establishment and Institutional Utilization: On the same day, Vitalik Buterin expressed his latest views on the relationship between institutions and crypto-punks, emphasizing that the original purpose of crypto technology was to counterbalance centralized power, but it is now being deeply utilized by large institutions as a tool for asset allocation and efficiency. This tension is particularly evident in ARK's actions: on one side is the technological ideal centered on cryptography and decentralization, while on the other side is the highly institutionalized financial packaging represented by index ETFs, both being rigidly stitched together in index products like CoinDesk 20, forming the contradictory backdrop of the current crypto narrative.

The Era of Indexing Begins: Possible Pathways for Crypto Assets Towards Standard Allocation

ARK's application for two ETFs, one including BTC and one excluding BTC, based on the CoinDesk 20, marks a shift for crypto assets from "single speculative targets" and "thematic concept stocks" to standardized tools that can be incorporated into asset allocation frameworks and model portfolios. This is not simply about adding two new products; it opens a path for traditional funds to enter based on indices, pushing the crypto market from a "marginal speculative pool" to an "asset class that can be discussed and quantified."

If approved in the future, mainstream index-based crypto ETFs are likely to reshape the distribution of funds: the weights of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are expected to gradually be viewed as "benchmark allocations," with passive funds concentrating on leading assets through index channels, while active funds adjust styles and positions around index components. However, whether this can be achieved still depends on multiple real-world constraints: the regulatory timeline remains unclear, key details such as fee structures and custody arrangements have not been disclosed, and whether the products can successfully pass through investment committees and compliance departments, not to mention the actual scale of traditional funds they can accommodate, remains uncertain. In the face of the enticing narrative of a "new entry point for Wall Street," it is essential to maintain a calm observation of institutional and technical details alongside expectations.

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