On January 24, the price of the Meme coin PENGUIN on the Solana chain experienced extreme fluctuations, igniting market sentiment and briefly pushing its market capitalization above $90 million. On the same chain, there were early investors sitting on paper profits of millions of dollars, hurried funds entering at high prices, and participants who had already sold but realized they had "missed out." The simultaneous presence of massive unrealized gains, anxiety over missing out, and high-level buying created a complex scenario. The on-chain data surrounding this Meme coin painted a picture of extreme divergence in profit outcomes and complex psychological games: some became wealthy, some felt regret, and some took over what could be the "last baton."
Moment of Surge: Market Capitalization Soars and Sentiment Ignites
● After the market capitalization surged to $90 million, the price rhythm of PENGUIN on Solana clearly accelerated, with multiple instances of rapid volume increases followed by quick pullbacks occurring in a short time. The on-chain turnover rate sharply increased. Early holders continued to trade at high levels, and the candlestick chart displayed a typical "straight surge + wide fluctuations" pattern, marking the transition from a cold start phase to a fully emotional game phase.
● On-chain analysts pointed out that the current price level has formed a complex structure of "high-level chasing, long-term chip realization, and massive unrealized gains coexisting": on one hand, early holders gradually realized profits during the volume phase; on the other hand, new funds actively took over chips at high levels driven by sentiment. Within the same price range, some viewed it as a selling zone, while others saw it as a starting point for a rise, with sentiment torn between greed and caution.
● With the launch of PENGUIN trading on Binance Alpha, more off-exchange funds gained access to participation channels, and the influx of new liquidity further amplified price spreads and short-term volatility. For speculative funds, being able to trade directly on a centralized platform means enhanced efficiency in entering and exiting, as well as increased narrative space for leverage, significantly lowering the decision-making threshold for "chasing high."
● In a broader context, the Solana ecosystem's Meme coins are in a phase of accelerated rotation, with frequent fund switching among various tokens. Popular targets often complete a leap from obscurity to prominence in a short time. Such assets lack stable anchoring, with prices highly dependent on narratives and liquidity, which, while amplifying profits and losses, also makes overall sentiment prone to extreme fluctuations within short cycles.
$1.25 Million in Unrealized Gains: To Take or Not to Take
● According to a single on-chain source, address 7fFCzx saw its paper profits approach $1.25 million during this round of PENGUIN's rise, with its complete accumulation and holding trajectory becoming one of the most talked-about samples in this market. This address had continuously accumulated at low levels early on, collecting a large amount of chips before the market capitalization approached $90 million. As the price accelerated upward, this portion of holdings quickly expanded into million-level unrealized gains.
● Under the market's intense scrutiny, whether and when 7fFCzx would reduce its holdings directly influenced the expectations of following funds and the rhythm of intraday fluctuations. Every on-chain transfer or slight reduction in holdings was seen as a potential "top signal," triggering secondary selling pressure; conversely, when it remained inactive, it was interpreted as "the big holder still being bullish," attracting more followers to take over at higher prices, making short-term prices extremely sensitive to the actions of this address.
● From a behavioral finance perspective, the question of whether to "take" the $1.25 million in unrealized gains is essentially a direct conflict between greed and fear: continuing to hold means betting that the market will continue, wagering that the upside potential outweighs the risk of a pullback; choosing to cash out means acknowledging that the current price is satisfactory enough, giving up the "potential for a double." In a highly transparent on-chain environment, this personal choice is amplified into a collective signal, drawing more people into the same game of profit and regret.
Missing Out on $1.4 Million and High-Level Buying: …
● In stark contrast to the million-dollar unrealized gains, a single source revealed that address Cooker.hl sold early after buying PENGUIN, and as the subsequent market saw multiple rounds of surges, its missed potential earnings were once estimated at around $1.4 million. This hypothetical gain of "if only I had held on a bit longer, I could have made an extra million" reinforced the common "fear of missing out" anxiety in the crypto space and became a typical example for observers discussing risk preferences and limits of patience.
● On the other end, a certain address made a contrarian purchase at high levels, investing approximately $260,000 in PENGUIN all at once. This type of fund chose to buy in reverse during the phase when the market capitalization was close to $90 million and volatility was extremely high, thus bearing a strong "last baton" risk: if the market slightly retraced, the paper loss would be significantly magnified; if the price continued to rise, there would be an opportunity to gain high Beta returns in the short term.
● Early profit-taking and high-level buying correspond to completely different bets on market sustainability. The former believes that the risk-reward ratio has become unbalanced, preferring to sacrifice potential future gains to hedge against future uncertainties with realized profits; the latter believes that the main upward phase has not yet ended, valuing the explosive returns from betting on the tail end of the market more than the safety of already realized profits. This difference in stance is the root cause of the extreme divergence of outcomes on the same Meme track.
● It is important to emphasize that both the missed $1.4 million selling case and the $260,000 high-level buying case are merely extreme samples among a vast number of participants on-chain. They are highly concrete on the narrative level, making them easy to spread and amplify, but do not represent all funding behaviors. The entry points, position sizes, and risk tolerances of most ordinary participants differ significantly from these "story characters" illuminated by the spotlight.
Irrational Game Field: Meme Coins…
● Returning to PENGUIN itself, within the same time window, at least three types of roles can be clearly identified on-chain: first, massive profit holders like 7fFCzx, who sit on million-level unrealized gains due to early positioning during the surge; second, sell-out participants like Cooker.hl, who have realized profits but experience strong psychological contrasts during subsequent rises; and third, new high-level buyers who use real money to take over these historical chips during the volume phase. The three parties are betting against each other in the same price range, holding completely different expectations for the future price direction.
● Unlike assets supported by cash flow and valuation models, Meme coins like PENGUIN on Solana lack traditional fundamental anchoring, with their prices largely driven by expectation contagion, on-chain narratives, and liquidity games. A screenshot of unrealized gains from a large address, a story of "missing out on millions," or news of a new listing on a trading platform can quickly reshape public sentiment, becoming core narrative nodes that drive fund flows.
● In such a game structure, extreme unrealized gains and extreme losses, as well as missing out, often coexist. During the surge phase, early holders' paper profits expand exponentially, while those entering during high volatility face significant retracement risks; those who have already sold endure torment under the assumption of "if only I hadn't sold." Prices oscillate rapidly in a space lacking fundamental constraints, and every emotional turning point can simultaneously create new millionaires and new deeply trapped investors.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Bull Market Narratives: Funds…
● Zooming out to the mainstream asset side, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been negative for nine consecutive days, reflecting a cautious or slightly watchful attitude of off-exchange compliant funds towards spot Bitcoin. This means that even though leading crypto assets remain industry anchors, conservative funds willing to continuously add positions at high levels in the short term do not dominate, and incremental buying is becoming more selective.
● At the same time, on a macro level, the narrative that "the U.S. dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%" has been brought up for discussion again, serving as a backdrop for global funds seeking diversified asset allocations and alternative assets. Although this does not directly equate to the specific scale of inflows into the crypto market, it provides a resonance point for the sentiment that "fiat currency credit is weakening in the long term, and risk assets have structural opportunities."
● Within crypto, some views are even more radical. Yi Lihua publicly stated, "the traditional four-year cycle rule has failed, and now is the time to bottom out in crypto assets," providing logical support for some high-risk preference funds: since mainstream cycle theories are believed to be failing, betting on high Beta assets and seeking asymmetric returns has become a "reasonable choice" in the eyes of many aggressive players, thus garnering additional attention for the Meme track.
● When mainstream assets like Bitcoin exhibit relatively suppressed short-term performance and limited upward potential, Meme coins naturally become a concentrated outlet for emotional release and high-risk preference funds. In such a structure, assets like PENGUIN often carry bets that exceed their own scale—this includes both short-term bets on individual projects and emotional expressions regarding whether the entire market "still has a big trend."
After PENGUIN: Who is…
● Looking back at this round of PENGUIN's market, the three typical on-chain roles of massive profit holders, sell-out participants, and high-level buyers together form a cross-section of high-volatility games. Short-term winners may not be the final winners: million-level unrealized gains, if lacking discipline and position management, may be consumed in several rounds of significant pullbacks; early exit participants, if blindly chasing high later, may exchange some profits for new losses. The long-term outcome depends more on whether strategies are consistent and risk control is strict, rather than on the luck of individual nodes.
● For ordinary participants, it is more crucial to learn to distinguish between individual case stories and replicable strategies. The on-chain trajectories of 7fFCzx, Cooker.hl, or high-level buying addresses provide extreme behavioral samples and psychological mirrors but do not constitute directly transferable trading paradigms. If one is swept up by narratives of million-dollar profits or missed opportunities for wealth, it is easy to amplify risk exposure under emotional drives, ultimately paying a higher price to "catch up."
● What is worth continuously observing in the future is the holding structure and emotional evolution of PENGUIN: including whether the concentration of holdings among large addresses continues to increase or significantly disperse, whether high-level chips choose to lock in or significantly reduce during the fluctuation phase, and the rhythm and extent of market sentiment returning from frenzy to calm. These on-chain and market signals will more authentically determine the final direction of this game than the stories of individual addresses becoming wealthy or missing out.
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