Bear Market Again? Bitcoin May Plunge to $58,000!
At the beginning of 2026, the Bitcoin market failed to sustain the anticipated bull market and instead showed signs of fatigue after hitting high levels. Recently, several analysts, represented by Titan of Crypto, issued warnings that Bitcoin has signaled a bear market, and 2026 could become a year of decline, with prices potentially dropping significantly to around $58,000. This pessimistic forecast quickly attracted market attention. This article will delve into the technical, on-chain data, and market structure that underpin this bear market warning.
1. Core Basis for Bear Market Prediction: Technical and Cycle Signals
The primary basis for multiple analysts predicting an impending bear market comes from bearish signals emitted by classic technical indicators.
● Analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin has experienced a bearish crossover on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) on a two-month cycle, which is a strong mid-term bear market technical signal.
● Historical backtesting data shows that when similar technical patterns appear, Bitcoin often undergoes a deep retracement of 50% to 64%. If this ratio is applied to the recent high, the target price indeed points to the $58,000 area.
● The actual market trend seems to confirm this technical warning. Bitcoin's price has retreated about 9% from its 2026 high of $97,930. This round of selling has caused Bitcoin to break through several key technical support levels considered lifelines.
2. Key Price Levels: The Game of Support and Risk
Currently, the market is focused on several key price levels that together form Bitcoin's short-term "defensive positions" and "risk ladder."
● Primary Key Level: 75% Cost Line (approximately $92,940)
○ This is currently the most important psychological and technical threshold. On-chain data analysis firm Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin's price has fallen below the 75% supply cost price (i.e., 75% of Bitcoin in the market was bought at a cost lower than this price).
○ This means that the vast majority of holders are now in a "floating loss" state. Glassnode warns that this indicates an increase in market distribution (selling) pressure, and risk has clearly shifted upward. Until the price stabilizes above this cost line, downward risk will dominate.
● Core Support Range: $89,000 - $90,000
○ Trader Merlijn The Trader analyzed that Bitcoin's price has retraced to a key ascending trendline support level, specifically in the $89,000 to $90,000 range.
○ On-chain data provides solid evidence for this: Bitcoin's cost distribution heatmap shows that investors have accumulated approximately 942,000 BTC in this price range over the past six months, forming a significant chip concentration area. This "bottoming" behavior makes this range a defense line that the bulls must hold.
However, if this defense line is breached, the consequences could be severe. Merlijn The Trader added that if the $89,000-$90,000 range is effectively broken, the price could further seek a bottom near the next range low of $84,000.
● Next Important Defense Line: Around $80,000
○ After $84,000, another widely recognized strong support level is around $80,000. Historical data shows that approximately 127,000 BTC were bought near this price level. If the price falls to this area, it will test the confidence of another group of long-term investors.
3. Structural Resistance in the Market: Overhead "Hanging Supply"
In addition to technical points, a deeper structural issue in the current market is the huge "hanging supply" overhead, which suppresses every rebound like a ceiling.
● Glassnode revealed in a recent in-depth report that Bitcoin's price is currently trapped in a fragile balance range: supported below by the "real market value" of about $81,000 and pressured above by the average cost of short-term holders.
● The core source of this pressure comes from investors who bought at high levels in the first to third quarters of 2025. When the price rebounds to their cost line (especially near the $98,400 short-term holder cost benchmark), these investors' strong willingness to "sell to break even" will immediately create significant selling pressure.
● Glassnode pointed out that this structure is strikingly similar to the failed rebound in the first quarter of 2022. At that time, the market fell into long-term consolidation because it could not digest similar overhead supply. Currently, $92,100 to $117,400 is a massive "break-even" concentration area, and any upward probing efforts will face continuous selling pressure.
● Therefore, the essence of any recent rebound may not be a strong influx of new funds but rather the market's struggle to digest the existing overhead supply.
4. Derivatives and Options Market: Revealing Caution and Hedging Demand
The performance of the derivatives market also confirms the cautious sentiment in the market.
Futures Market Participation is Low: The 7-day average trading volume of Bitcoin futures continues to shrink, far below the levels typically seen in trending markets. This indicates that professional traders and speculative funds have not entered the market in large numbers, and recent price fluctuations are driven more by sparse liquidity than by active leveraged positions.
Complex Signals in the Options Market:
● Short-term Hedging Sentiment: Influenced by macro events (such as comments related to the Davos Forum), the market experienced a brief panic. The implied volatility of one-week options surged, with put options showing significant premiums relative to call options (the skew tilted towards the bearish side), indicating that investors are eager to purchase short-term downside protection.
● Mid-term Expectations Relatively Stable: Interestingly, the implied volatility for three-month and six-month options has only slightly increased or remained stable. This suggests that the market views risks as short-term and event-driven, without a thorough pessimistic reassessment of the mid to long-term outlook.
● Potential Impact of Market Maker Positions: A noteworthy detail is that, according to Glassnode's report, market makers hold net short gamma positions in the $95,000 to $104,000 range. This means that if the price rises into this range, market makers may be forced to buy Bitcoin in the market to hedge their risks, thereby passively amplifying upward momentum. This provides a potential technical boost for rebounds.
5. Another Voice: Cycle Ineffectiveness Theory and Long Bull Outlook
Amidst the bear market warnings, there exists a completely different grand narrative in the market. Some analyses, synthesizing views from several top venture capital firms, suggest that Bitcoin's traditional "four-year halving cycle" logic may be failing.
This perspective argues that with the approval of the U.S. spot ETF, the adoption by sovereign nations, and the allocation of corporate treasuries, the logic for purchasing Bitcoin has shifted from cyclical speculation to strategic asset allocation. Institutional funds, represented by BlackRock, continue to flow in, smoothing out the volatility brought by halving. In this new paradigm, Bitcoin is expected to challenge its historical high of $250,000 in this cycle, exhibiting characteristics of a "slow bull" and "long bull."
In summary, the warnings from the current bearish camp are not unfounded. Monthly MACD bearish signals, breaking key on-chain cost support, heavy overhead liquidation pressure, and the cautious performance of the derivatives market collectively construct a bearish logic.
For investors, the key is to observe several core positions: first, whether it can reclaim the $92,940 75% cost line to reverse the short-term disadvantage; second, whether the support of the $89,000-$90,000 dense trading area is solid; and finally, whether the market can effectively break through and stabilize above the short-term holder cost line (approximately $99,100), which is a critical watershed for market sentiment to shift from "breaking even" to "profit optimism."
The Bitcoin market in 2026 is destined to seek direction amidst fragile on-chain structures, ongoing macro uncertainties, and the interplay of new and old funding narratives. Whether it is the deep bear warning of a drop to $58,000 or the long bull prophecy of reaching $250,000, the market reminds every participant: a more complex and institutionalized new phase has arrived, and the risks of relying solely on historical cycle charts for judgment are increasing. In the face of structural changes, maintaining respect and flexibility may be the best strategy to cope with all uncertainties in 2026.
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